My social media experiment did not work. Of the nine local and statewide races I followed, only 5 winners had the greater social media presence (see table below). In 2016 Facebook followings predicted the winner in 8 of the 9 races. Does that mean that Russia does not care about our elections any more or voters are no longer swayed by their Facebook Posts? No Idea. Facebook no longer provides the same information on engagement that it did before 2016.
The race for the House and Senate produced a split decision with Democrats taking the House and Republicans gaining at least a few seats in the Senate. In Pennnsylvania, Democrats won statewide races for Senate and Governor. They have also gained seats in the state House and Senate. Lindsey Williams has won a close election for State Senate in the North Hills of Pittsburgh by 500 votes. Locally Republicans John Joyce and Glenn Thompson won their races for the US house with Democrat Conor Lamb winning near Pittsburgh. In Cambria County, Bryan Barbin lost a nail biter to Jim Rigby for his State House Seat and Frank Burns barely won his State House seat.
Changes in voter registration appear to have played a greater role in the election results than social media followings. I wrote an article for Public Source on voter registration in SW Pennsylvania and found a similar pattern to what I saw in Cambria and Somerset Counties. There were gains for Democrats but not a huge blue wave that some have predicted. The Democrats won the Governor's race and gained in the state legislature but Republicans are firmly in control. The change in Pennsylvania's congressional delegation (13R and 5D before to 9D and 9R after) is mostly due to redistricting.
Office
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg %
|
Twitter Following
|
Facebook Following Nov 6
|
FB Change
|
Twitter Nov 6
|
Twitter Change
|
Results %
|
Winner with Greater
Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No
|
|
US Senate
|
|||||||||||
Lou Barletta
|
R
|
39,290
|
37.7
|
9021
|
41512
|
2222
|
11702
|
2681
|
42.77
|
||
Bob Casey
|
D
|
37,787
|
52
|
5664
|
38588
|
801
|
6159
|
495
|
55.58
|
0
|
|
Dale Kerns
|
L
|
4438
|
725
|
5052
|
614
|
850
|
125
|
1.02
|
|||
Neal Gale
|
G
|
205
|
40
|
348
|
143
|
143
|
103
|
0.62
|
|||
Governor
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg %
|
Twitter Following
|
Facebook Following Nov 6
|
FB Change
|
Twitter Nov 6
|
Twitter Change
|
Results %
|
Winner with Greater
Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No
|
|
Scott Wagner
|
R
|
171696
|
36.7
|
5537
|
172803
|
1107
|
6367
|
830
|
40.82
|
||
Tom Wolf
|
D
|
114342
|
56.3
|
24879
|
115616
|
1274
|
26081
|
1202
|
57.64
|
0
|
|
Kenneth Krawchuck
|
L
|
2701
|
3167
|
466
|
0.98
|
||||||
Paul Glover
|
G
|
1191
|
1278
|
87
|
0.55
|
||||||
Congress
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg %
|
Twitter Following
|
Facebook Following Nov 6
|
FB Change
|
Twitter Nov 6
|
Twitter Change
|
Results %
|
Winner with Greater
Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No
|
|
15th District
|
|||||||||||
Glenn Thompson
|
R
|
1203
|
2945
|
1318
|
115
|
2946
|
1
|
67.9
|
1
|
||
Susan Boser
|
D
|
1372
|
848
|
1576
|
204
|
1030
|
182
|
32.1
|
|||
13th District
|
|||||||||||
John Joyce
|
R
|
1527
|
400
|
1595
|
68
|
463
|
63
|
70.44
|
1
|
||
Brent Ottaway
|
D
|
1068
|
376
|
1106
|
38
|
477
|
101
|
29.56
|
|||
17th District
|
|||||||||||
Keith Rothfus
|
R
|
11847
|
42
|
2332
|
11943
|
96
|
2488
|
156
|
43.79
|
||
Conor Lamb
|
D
|
30035
|
54
|
84647
|
30456
|
421
|
85843
|
1196
|
56.21
|
1
|
|
State Senate
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg %
|
Twitter Following
|
Facebook Following Nov 6
|
FB Change
|
Twitter Nov 6
|
Twitter Change
|
Results %
|
Winner with Greater
Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No
|
|
30th District
|
|||||||||||
Judy Ward
|
R
|
1026
|
1047
|
21
|
72.93
|
0
|
|||||
Emily Best
|
D
|
1105
|
451
|
1444
|
339
|
500
|
49
|
27.07
|
|||
38th District
|
|||||||||||
Jeremy Shaffer
|
R
|
2034
|
199
|
2322
|
288
|
207
|
8
|
49.78
|
|||
Lindsey Williams
|
D
|
1522
|
1387
|
1670
|
148
|
1456
|
69
|
50.22
|
1
|
||
State House
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg %
|
Twitter Following
|
Facebook Following Nov 6
|
FB Change
|
Twitter Nov 6
|
Twitter Change
|
Results %
|
Winner with Greater
Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No
|
|
72nd District
|
|||||||||||
Gerald Carnicella
|
R
|
25
|
0
|
26
|
1
|
47.62
|
|||||
Frank Burns
|
D
|
1810
|
1408
|
1826
|
16
|
1428
|
20
|
52.38
|
1
|
||
71st District
|
|||||||||||
Jim Rigby
|
R
|
35
|
0
|
36
|
1
|
52.27
|
0
|
||||
Bryan Barbin
|
D
|
517
|
856
|
527
|
10
|
869
|
13
|
47.73
|
|||
**Related Posts**
