CSI Without Dead Bodies
My occupation is a statistician. I tell people it is like "CSI without dead bodies" because analyzing a set of data that has been collected is like doing an autopsy on a deceased person in the sense that I'm trying to learn what I can from what statistics and information are available. Except in this case the information does not involve gross things. For me the research process can be humorous, scary, but always captivating.
Friday, June 24, 2022
A look at Race/Ethnicity and South Central PA COVID Vaccination and Case Mortality Rates
Sunday, June 19, 2022
County Health Rankings and COVID Case Mortality
I finished being at the Juneteenth festivities in Johnstown and am ready to get back to county health rankings (CHR) and local COVID numbers. Case mortality (the number of deceased divided by the number of cases) will be the focus of this post. Two weeks ago, I focused on vaccination rates in the 10 county region. Case mortality and vaccination rates were negatively correlated (meaning that as one variable increases the other decreases) accounting for 54% of the variability. There were eight other CHR statistics correlated with vaccination rates. Eighteen other CHR statistics were correlated with case mortality.

Variable Correlated with Case Mortality |
Correlation Coefficient |
% Variability
Explained |
Years of Potential Life Lost Rate (YPLL) |
0.741 |
54.9% |
Average Number of Physically
Unhealthy Days |
0.690 |
47.6% |
Average Number of Mentally
Unhealthy Days |
0.837 |
70.1% |
% Smokers |
0.840 |
70.5% |
% Physically Inactive |
0.771 |
59.5% |
% With Access to Exercise
Opportunities |
-0.662 |
43.9% |
Teen Birth Rate |
0.705 |
49.8% |
% With Annual Mammogram |
-0.625 |
39.0% |
% Vaccinated for the flu |
-0.894 |
79.9% |
% Completed High School |
-0.673 |
45.2% |
% Some College |
-0.721 |
51.9% |
% Unemployed |
0.734 |
53.9% |
80th Percentile Income |
-0.796 |
63.4% |
Social Association Rate |
0.662 |
43.8% |
Injury Death Rate |
0.664 |
44.1% |
% Severe Housing Problems |
-0.634 |
40.2% |
Severe Housing Cost Burden |
-0.698 |
48.7% |
% Drive Alone to Work |
0.732 |
53.6% |
**Related Posts**
Thursday, June 9, 2022
Johnstown Juneteenth Celebrations 2022
I will be there on June 14 and 16th selling my book. These two days are healthcare themed days. On the 16th at 3pm, I will be there presenting on racial health disparities in Cambria County. I hope you all can come.
**Related Posts**
A look at new Racial Disparity Numbers in Cambria County
Sunday, June 5, 2022
County Health Rankings Statistics and COVID Vaccination Rates
This post focuses on COVID vaccination rates and individual CHR statistics. The graph above shows the correlation between Vaccination rates (for those who have received the first 2 shots) and COVID case mortality rates. It shows a negative relationship between the two where every 1 % increase in the vaccination rate yields a predicted 0.046% decrease in the case mortality rate. This relationship accounts for 54% of the variability in the Case mortality rate. Next I will summarize the CHR statistics that are significant with the vaccination rates.
There were 8 CHR variables that were significantly associated with the vaccination rate. The first that was significant was the average number of mentally unhealthy days (a quality of life statistic). This model states that for every one day increase in mentally unhealthy days, there is a predicted 19.3% decrease in the vaccination rate. This relationship accounts for 42.18% of the variability in the vaccination rate.
To save space, I will summarize verbally the remaining significant correlations. The next significant correlation is the % of the county who are physically inactive which is also negative. This relationship accounts for 42.3% of the variability. Paradoxically, the % with access to exercise opportunities was positively correlated with the vaccination rate accounting for 49% of the variability.
The next significant correlation with the vaccination rate was with the primary care physician rate in the county. These rates were positively associated accounting for 42.3% of the variability. Likewise the flu vaccination rate was positively associated accounting for 49% of the variability. The high school completion rate and the % completing at least some college were both positively associated with the vaccination rate accounting for 44.9% and 39.7% of the variability respectively. Finally the income amount in the 80th percentile in the county was positively associated accounting for 39.7% of the variability.
Next week I will summarize case mortality correlations.
**Related Posts**
2022 County Health Rankings are Out: Cambria Still Ranks Low
Friday, May 27, 2022
County Health Rankings predict COVID Mortality in the 10 County Area
Last year I looked at COVID mortality and County Health Rankings (CHR) numbers for the whole state of PA. This year, the state does not make cumulative mortality numbers readily available. This makes updating the numbers subject to copying error. For this year, I thought I would focus on ten county region surrounding Cambria County.
The 10 county area is listed in the table at the top. The univariate correlation coefficients are presented in the table below for the COVID measures above and the CHR rankings for health outcomes and health factors. Health outcomes is a composite of length of life and quality of life measures. Health factors is a composite of health behaviors, clinical care, social and economic, and physical environment factors. The correlation matrix is presented below. Because of the small sample size, correlation coefficients of 0.632 or higher or -0.632 or lower were flagged as significant and presented in bold below.
|
% COVID Fully Vaccinated |
Case Mortality % |
COVID Case Rate /100,000 |
COVID Mortality /100,000 |
Hosp /100,000 |
County Health Outcomes Rank |
Health Factors Rank |
% COVID Fully Vaccinated |
1 |
||||||
Case Mortality |
-0.738 |
1.000 |
|||||
COVID Case Rate |
0.158 |
0.311 |
1.000 |
||||
COVID Mortality /100,000 |
-0.579 |
0.953 |
0.583 |
1.000 |
|||
Hosp /100,000 |
0.360 |
-0.440 |
0.134 |
-0.339 |
1.000 |
||
County Health Outcomes Rank |
-0.289 |
0.632 |
0.344 |
0.642 |
-0.254 |
1.000 |
|
Health Factors Rank |
-0.462 |
0.730 |
0.398 |
0.747 |
-0.409 |
0.850 |
1.000 |
Length of life rank |
-0.297 |
0.696 |
0.232 |
0.659 |
-0.242 |
0.896 |
0.683 |
Quality of Life Rank |
-0.160 |
0.428 |
0.368 |
0.477 |
-0.254 |
0.925 |
0.826 |
Health Behaviors rank |
-0.363 |
0.678 |
0.477 |
0.726 |
-0.227 |
0.676 |
0.913 |
Clinical Care rank |
-0.548 |
0.803 |
0.232 |
0.764 |
-0.420 |
0.828 |
0.785 |
Soc & Econ Factors rank |
-0.357 |
0.598 |
0.318 |
0.608 |
-0.414 |
0.843 |
0.950 |
Phys env rank |
0.031 |
0.135 |
-0.381 |
0.003 |
-0.242 |
0.385 |
0.116 |