Sunday, September 13, 2015

Bernie Sanders Lead in Iowa and NH but not SC: Inside the Numbers

The latest CBS tracker poll for the Iowa Democratic Caucus gave Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders a 10 point lead over Hillary Clinton (43% to 33%).  The poll sampled 646 registered Democratic voters and 704 Republicans for a margin of error of +/-5%.  A similar poll of New Hampshire voters gave Sanders a lead of 22% over Clinton (52% to 30%).  In both states Sanders lead is larger among male voters by a 47% to 29% for Sanders among men in Iowa vs. 41% to 36% for Sanders among women over Clinton and a 61% to 23% margin for Sanders in NH among men compared to 46% to 35% for Sanders among women.  The full report of all three surveys are embedded in this post.  In both states, there were negligible minority voters because the minority populations are small in those states.  

24% of Iowa voters said they believe that another Clinton administration would "favor the rich" while 4% believe that a Sanders administration would and 6% said Clinton would "favor the poor" while 28% believe a Sanders administration would.  For New Hampshire voters, 28% say that Clinton would "favor the rich" while 8% say Sanders would and 8% say that Clinton would "favor the poor" while 23% say that Sanders would.  In Iowa and NH men were more likely to believe that Clinton would favor the rich than women.

In Iowa voters in the 18-29 and 30-44 age groups were more likely to support Sanders with 74% in the 18-29 group and 45% in the 30-44 group supporting him and the older age groups support Clinton.  In New Hampshire 67% in the 18-29 age group, 60% in the 30-44 and 56% of the 65+ age group support him.  Support for Clinton was strongest in the 45-64 age group in NH and in the 65+ group in Iowa.

Sanders was preferred by self described liberal (51%) and very liberal (58%) voters and Independent voters in Iowa (49%).  In New Hampshire 80% of very liberal and 50% of liberal voters prefer Sanders.  70% of independent voters in NH prefer Sanders.

I haven't seen any polling data on Utah but a similar pattern was seen in the exit poll for the 2008 democratic primary where Obama beat Clinton 57-43%.

In South Carolina (the 3rd primary state), Clinton still has a lead over Sanders by 46-23% with 22% for Biden.  18% of primary voters believe that Clinton would "favor the rich" while 23% of Democratic primary voters believe that Sanders would.  Sanders trails Clinton by 44% to 31% among men and trails 48% to 17%.  As with Iowa and NH, Sanders support is strongest among 18-29 yo voters but still trails 41% to 35%.  Here there is a racial divide where Sanders trails Clinton 52% to 4% among African American voters while Sanders leads Clinton by 46% to 39%.  African Americans are a majority of Democratic voters in SC.  

10% of African American voters believe that Clinton would "favor the rich" while 35% believe that Sanders would.  Sanders is preferred by 51% of independent voters while 52% of registered democrats support Clinton.

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