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| Trump mocking a Disabled Reporter |
The CNN poll showed an 11% increase in Trump's support from the last CNN poll on Oct. 14-17 to an all time high. The poll/survey shows that Trump leads among GOP voters who believe that he is best able to handle the economy (55%, 11% gain), illegal immigration (48%, 1% gain), foreign policy (30%, 8% gain), ISIS (46%, 14% gain), and the federal budget (51%, question wasn't previously asked), Trump also leads when respondents were asked who had the best chance of winning in the general election (52%), who would be most effective to sole the country's problems (42%), and who can best handle the responsibilities of commander in chief (37%).
Trump does somewhat better among men (38%) than women (33%) but still leads the GOP field among both genders. His support is higher among GOP voters aged 50-64 (43%) than those aged 65+ (28%) but also leads both age groups. He has more support among respondents earning less than $50k (40%) than those earning more than $50k (33%). The starkest demographic difference for Trump's support was seen among those without a college degree (46%) to those with a college degree (18%). Trump leads among those without a degree but Ted Cruz leads among GOP voters with a degree with 22% which is within the margin of error. This means that Cruz and Trump are in a statistical tie among those with a college degree.
CNN produced this graphic showing how Clinton fares in hypothetical general election match-ups. Not included in those match-ups was Bernie Sanders. Quinnipiac did produce a poll this week which included Sanders as well as Clinton in match-ups against four GOP candidates: Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz (interestingly Bush was not included). The means from the Qunnipiac Poll are presented in the table below with means and standard deviations. Sanders has a mean advantage of 6.25% while Clinton had an advantage of 3.75% of the four Republicans. The difference between the advantages of Clinton and Sanders (2.50%) is borderline significant (p=0.09) According to the CNN graphic above, Clinton has a mean advantage of 0.8%.
Clinton
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Sanders
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Trump
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6%
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8%
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Carson
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3%
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6%
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Rubio
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1%
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1%
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Cruz
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5%
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10%
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Mean
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3.75%
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6.25%
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St. Dev
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2.22%
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3.86%
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When I looked at the poll differences between Sanders and Clinton against 6 GOP candidates before the Paris and San Bernadino attacks Clinton had an advantage of 8.33% and Sanders had an advantage of 8.17%. These differences were statistically identical. The Real Clear Politics head to head averages for these candidates gives a 1.55% advantage for Clinton and a 1.42% advantage for Sanders. Before these attacks, Clinton had an advantage of 1.53% for Clinton and 1.23% for Sanders. The averages have a lot more polls for Clinton than Sanders.
Obviously Trump has had a boost in the polls among the GOP faithful and the general electorate. Clinton may have been hurt more against potential Republicans than Sanders. Next time I will look inside the numbers for the Democrats.
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