Twitter followers
|
FB Followers Dec
|
Engaged FB Dec
|
engagement rate Dec
|
Gain in FB Followers
|
RCP Dec Poll Avg
|
|
Donald Trump
|
5483626
|
5076088
|
1867698
|
0.36794
|
1793480
|
36.5
|
Ted Cruz
|
683376
|
1741989
|
311803
|
0.178993
|
356113
|
17.8
|
Mike Huckabee
|
432248
|
1860884
|
92161
|
0.049525
|
33461
|
1.8
|
Rick Santorum
|
250712
|
268813
|
5538
|
0.020602
|
4017
|
0.5
|
Ben Carson
|
1079406
|
5020690
|
896424
|
0.178546
|
2602687
|
9.3
|
Rand Paul
|
753468
|
2091438
|
326094
|
0.155919
|
31008
|
2.5
|
Jeb Bush
|
408115
|
309478
|
47112
|
0.152231
|
58747
|
4.2
|
Marco Rubio
|
1039434
|
1174934
|
70009
|
0.059585
|
196533
|
11.3
|
Chris Christie
|
77049
|
142603
|
13530
|
0.094879
|
23735
|
4.2
|
Carly Fiorina
|
642870
|
536919
|
23281
|
0.04336
|
255282
|
2.2
|
John Kasich
|
148238
|
154305
|
6159
|
0.039914
|
16092
|
2
|
George Pataki
|
82930
|
20138
|
151
|
0.007498
|
1808
|
0.2
|
Jim Gilmore
|
2612
|
8660
|
7415
|
0.856236
|
8660
|
0
|
I looked at the Correlations for the GOP candidates first. The correlation matrix of the candidates data can be seen at the bottom of the post with significant correlations in bold. The number of engaged Facebook followers is now more highly correlated with the candidates support than the total number of followers on FB with the RCP poll data. The candidates Twitter following is most highly correlated with candidate support accounting for 84% of the variability (it was 76% of the variability in the last Twitter primary update in August). The scatterplot shows that Trump is way ahead with the RCP average and the Twitter followers. If Trump is excluded from the analysis,only the number of twitter followers is significantly correlated with the RCP average with a coefficient of 0.65 accounting for 42% of the variability in the poll data. This suggests that Trump has a high influence on the relationship between having a large social media following and high poll numbers.
One outlier in this analysis is Ted Cruz who has the second highest poll average but the 5th highest Twitter and Facebook following. The high correlation between the Twitter following and the number engaged on Facebook suggest that the number engaged on Twitter for Trump is also high even though only 64% or more than 2.9 million of his followers are real according to the website TwitterAudit which is far more than the total followers of the rest of the GOP field. Ted Cruz has 75% of his followers being real. 96% of my 967 followers on Twitter (@CSIwoDB) are real. Next I will look at the Democrats social media following and their RCP poll averages with three candidates.
Twitter followers
|
FB Followers Dec
|
FB Engaged Dec
|
FB Engagement Rate Dec
|
Gain in FB
Followers
|
RCP Dec
|
|
Twitter followers
|
1
|
|||||
FB Followers Dec
|
0.751
|
1
|
||||
Engaged Dec
|
0.937
|
0.900
|
1
|
|||
Engagement rate Dec
|
0.194
|
0.112
|
0.242
|
1
|
||
Gain in FB Followers
|
0.621
|
0.904
|
0.818
|
0.145
|
1
|
|
RCP Dec
|
0.916
|
0.723
|
0.877
|
0.177
|
0.608
|
1
|
Time will tell if Trump's social media following will translate into wins in the primaries. Cruz is leading Trump by an average of 2.8% in recent Iowa polls with the Caucus being on Feb 1. Trump is still leading in New Hampshire and in other states. Certainly having a large following gives candidates a cheap way to communicate with their supporters and the media. The challenge is will it motivate people to go to the polls.
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