| Candidate | Likes | vs. U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Carson | 26% | – |
| ✓ | Sanders | 23% | – |
| ✓ | Trump | 23% | – |
| ✓ | Cruz | 12% | – |
| ✓ | Clinton | 8% | – |
| ✓ | Rubio | 7% | – |
| ✓ | Bush | 1% | – |
| ✓ | Kasich | Less than 1% | – |
In the past, I have looked at the Presidential candidates' Facebook likes (I called them followers) and how they correlate with their poll averages. Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight has come out with an interactive map showing the percentage of Facebook likes for the candidates at the national, state, and county level where you can see the totals for each. Above are the percentages for the entire US. The Democratic and the Republican candidates are grouped together. Below are the % likes for the state of Nevada which has it's caucus on February 20 for the Democrats and on February 23 for the GOP. .
Nevada
| Candidate | Likes | vs. U.S. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Trump | 25% | +2 |
| ✓ | Cruz | 12% | +1 |
| ✓ | Sanders | 23% | +1 |
| ✓ | Rubio | 8% | – |
| ✓ | Clinton | 8% | – |
| ✓ | Bush | 1% | – |
| ✓ | Kasich | Less than 1% | – |
| ✓ | Carson | 22% | -4 |
The National numbers differ from the total likes (or followers in my terminology) that I found when I surveyed their pages in December. These numbers may be skewed because they could include like from outside the US. but in it's defense they are highly correlated with RCP poll averages at the time for Democrats and Republicans respectively. Five thirty eight has access to data that I don't.
I double checked the number of followers or likes on the candidates pages. Hillary Clinton has 2,482,412 total likes on Facebook with 620,722 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.25. Bernie Sanders has 2,849,642 total likes with 901,049 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.32. Donald Trump has 5,756,951 total likes with 1,544,069 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.27. Ben Carson has 5,075,553 total likes with 618,028 engaged for an engagement rate of 0.12. I don't have access to the data for where the likes for each candidate are coming from but it suggests that the candidates are much closer in total likes than the Five Thirty Eight numbers are. Since December, Carson has gained about 54,863 likes, Trump has gained 680,863 likes, Sanders has gained 552,912 likes, and Clinton has gained 321,550 likes.
Total likes not the only measure in the Facebook Primary. Carson acquired most of his likes when he was at the top of the polls in November. He is now near the bottom of the polls as the gain in likes and the engagement rate suggest.
Twitter followers
|
FB Followers Dec
|
Engaged FB Dec
|
engagement rate Dec
|
Gain in FB Followers
|
RCP Dec Poll Avg
|
|
Hillary Clinton
|
5,049,765
|
2,160,862
|
450,105
|
0.208
|
951,683
|
53.3%
|
Bernie Sanders
|
1,105,792
|
2,296,730
|
425,935
|
0.185
|
1,071,178
|
32%
|
Martin O’Malley
|
119.145
|
104,179
|
2,516
|
0.024
|
27,226
|
3.5%
|
Donald Trump
|
5,483,626
|
5,076,088
|
1,867,698
|
0.36794
|
1,793,480
|
36.5
|
Ted Cruz
|
683,376
|
1,741,989
|
311,803
|
0.178993
|
356,113
|
17.8
|
Mike Huckabee
|
432,248
|
1,860,884
|
92,161
|
0.049525
|
33,461
|
1.8
|
Rick Santorum
|
250,712
|
268,813
|
5,538
|
0.020602
|
4,017
|
0.5
|
Ben Carson
|
1,079,406
|
5,020,690
|
896,424
|
0.178546
|
2,602,687
|
9.3
|
Rand Paul
|
753,468
|
2,091,438
|
326,094
|
0.155919
|
31,008
|
2.5
|
Jeb Bush
|
408,115
|
309,478
|
47,112
|
0.152231
|
58,747
|
4.2
|
Marco Rubio
|
1,039,434
|
1,174,934
|
70,009
|
0.059585
|
196,533
|
11.3
|
Chris Christie
|
77,049
|
142,603
|
13,530
|
0.094879
|
23,735
|
4.2
|
Carly Fiorina
|
642,870
|
536,919
|
23,281
|
0.04336
|
255,282
|
2.2
|
John Kasich
|
148,238
|
154,305
|
6,159
|
0.039914
|
16,092
|
2
|
George Pataki
|
82,930
|
20,138
|
151
|
0.007498
|
1,808
|
0.2
|
Jim Gilmore
|
2,612
|
8,660
|
7,415
|
0.856236
|
8,660
|
0
|
