Change in Facebook Followings for PA Candidates Before and After the Debate

Trump Followers on PA Facebook Page

I had originally planned to do a post looking at Facebook pages for candidates for Pennsylvania but recent events in the campaign have forced me to update the numbers I collected on Friday before the nasty video and debate occurred.  Above is a graph showing the number of new followers for Trump's PA state page.  The dark line shows the new followers during the past week while the light colored line shows the same for the previous week.  There was a spike in new followers for Trump in PA yesterday, the day of the debate.  The graph below shows the trend in new followers in the PA for Hillary page.   It shows that her PA page had a large increase in followers in the first part of last week and then tapering off on the day of the debate.  The problem with both graphs is that there is no x-axis to give some idea of the number of new followers for each day.  Luckily I have created the tables below for comparison of the different candidate PA pages.  I have also created tables for the PA Senate race and some local down ballot Congressional and state legislature races.

Clinton Followers on PA Facebook Page

Candidate	RCP % Avg PA	FB Followers Pre Debate	FB engaged pre deb	% Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net gain Post Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB Engaged Post Deb	% Engaged Post Deb
Clinton (D)	47.8	10,639	4,417	41.52	10,924	285	2.68	2,929	26.81
Trump (R)	39.2	13,009	305	2.34	13,062	53	0.41	179	1.37
Johnson (L)	5	724	38	5.25	731	7	0.97	14	1.92
Stein (G)	2	487	30	6.16	493	6	1.23	13	2.64
correlation with RCP		0.95	0.73	0.63	0.96	0.80	0.40	0.73	0.67

 
The above table shows their Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling averages (for Monday), the number in Facebook followers for the state pages for the four Presidential candidates (pre (Fri) and post (Mon) tape/debate), the number engaged pre and post Debate, the % engaged (the # engaged/#followers as a measure of enthusiasm), and the net and % change in followers after the debate. The last row shows the correlation coefficient for each measure with the RCP polling average.

The table shows the largest gain in followers after the debate (both in number and %) for Clinton and the highest number engaged (both in number and %) among the four candidates in PA.  Of all the measures, the number of followers (both pre and post) is most highly correlated with the RCP average.  As he did nationally, Trump still has more overall followers in PA but the higher engagement and change in followers for Clinton suggest more enthusiasm for her on Facebook.

US Senate	RCP Avg  %  PA	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre  Deb	%  Engaged pre  Deb	FB Followers Post Deb	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg  in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Pat Toomey (R)	43.4	152,198	6,230	4.09	152,597	399	0.26	2,831	1.86
Katie McGinty (D)	43.8	21,367	1,770	8.28	21,541	174	0.81	1,140	5.29

 
This table looks at the Facebook pages for the US. Senate candidates Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty.  The RCP average has them only 0.4% apart but Toomey has a decisive advantage in the number of followers.  Both candidates had less than a 1% change in their followers over the weekend.  McGinty did have a higher % engaged both pre and post debate.  It's not possible to compute correlation coefficients with just two data points.

US House  12th	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	%  Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Keith  Rothfus (R)	12,718	94	0.74	12,726	8	0.06	57	0.45
Erin McClelland (D)	3,492	198	5.67	3,503	11	0.32	123	3.51

 
In congressional races there is little public polling but we may look at their Facebook followings as a gage of support.  In the PA House 12th congressional district incumbent Keith Rothfus has almost 3 times as many followers on Facebook (pre and post debate) but McClelland has a higher engagement in terms of number and %.

US House  9th	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	%  Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Bill Shuster  (R)	6,168	640	10.38	6,188	20	0.32	235	3.80
Art Halvorson  (D)	2,200	136	6.18	2,204	4	0.18	62	2.81

 
The PA 9th Congressional District race has incumbent Bill Shuster running against Art Halvorson.  Halvorson challenged Shuster in the Republican primary and narrowly lost 52% to 48% but, as luck would have it, he received the most write in votes in the Democratic primary and is now running to become the first tea party democrat in Congress.  The table above shows more followers and more engagement for Shuster.

State Senate  35th	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	%  Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Wayne Langerholc (R)	1,472	327	22.21	1,476	4	0.27	124	8.40
Ed Cernic (D)	347	105	30.26	352	5	1.44	77	21.88

 
Looking at the State Senate race in the 35th district, Republican Wayne Langerholc has an advantage in followers and engaged pre and post debate.  Ed Cernic has an advantage in the % engaged pre and post debate.  There is no incumbent in this race.

State Senate 41st	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	%  Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Don White (R)	957	4	0.42	957	0	0.00	4	0.42
Tony DeLoreto  (D)	535	37	6.92	546	11	2.06	29	5.31

 
In the PA State Senate 41st district, incumbent Don White has an advantage in the number of followers but no change relative to the debate.  Challenger Tony DeLoreto has an advantage in the gain in followers and the number engaged with his page.  

State House  71st	FB  Followers Pre  Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	%  Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net  gain Post  Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Mark Amsdell (R)	148	4	2.70	151	3	2.03	1	0.66
Bryan Barbin (D)	404	6	1.49	404	0	0.00	6	1.49

  
In the 71st state house district (where I live) incumbent Bryan Barbin has an advantage in the number of followers and the number engaged but no increase from Friday to Monday. 

State House 72nd	FB Followers Pre Debate	FB  engaged pre deb	% Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net gain Post Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Cecelia Houser (R)	445	5	1.12	448	3	0.67	3	0.67
Frank Burns (D)	1,250	90	7.20	1,251	1	0.08	38	3.04

 
Incumbent Frank Burns (D) has an advantage in the 72nd district in the number of followers and in the number and % engaged with little change in the number of followers for either candidate. 

State House 73rd	FB Followers Pre Debate	FB engaged pre deb	% Engaged pre deb	FB Followers Post Debate	Net gain Post Deb	% Chg in Followers	FB  Engaged Post  Deb	%  Engaged Post  Deb
Tommy Sankey (R)	587	15	2.56	587	0	0.00	2	0.34
Fred Weaver (D)	625	117	18.72	627	2	0.32	19	3.03

 
In the last race I am considering, the 73rd district in the PA State House, challenger Fred Weaver has an advantage over incumbent Tommy Sankey in the number of Facebook followers, the number and % engaged, and in the net gain in followers.  Does this mean that this could be the upset special in the area?  Time will tell.

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