![]() |
Trump Followers on PA Facebook Page |
![]() |
Clinton Followers on PA Facebook Page |
Candidate
|
RCP % Avg PA
|
FB Followers Pre
Debate
|
FB engaged pre deb
|
% Engaged pre deb
|
FB Followers Post
Debate
|
Net gain Post Deb
|
% Chg in Followers
|
FB Engaged Post Deb
|
% Engaged Post Deb
|
Clinton (D)
|
47.8
|
10,639
|
4,417
|
41.52
|
10,924
|
285
|
2.68
|
2,929
|
26.81
|
Trump (R)
|
39.2
|
13,009
|
305
|
2.34
|
13,062
|
53
|
0.41
|
179
|
1.37
|
Johnson (L)
|
5
|
724
|
38
|
5.25
|
731
|
7
|
0.97
|
14
|
1.92
|
Stein (G)
|
2
|
487
|
30
|
6.16
|
493
|
6
|
1.23
|
13
|
2.64
|
correlation with RCP
|
0.95
|
0.73
|
0.63
|
0.96
|
0.80
|
0.40
|
0.73
|
0.67
|
The above table shows their Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling averages (for Monday), the number in Facebook followers for the state pages for the four Presidential candidates (pre (Fri) and post (Mon) tape/debate), the number engaged pre and post Debate, the % engaged (the # engaged/#followers as a measure of enthusiasm), and the net and % change in followers after the debate. The last row shows the correlation coefficient for each measure with the RCP polling average.
The table shows the largest gain in followers after the debate (both in number and %) for Clinton and the highest number engaged (both in number and %) among the four candidates in PA. Of all the measures, the number of followers (both pre and post) is most highly correlated with the RCP average. As he did nationally, Trump still has more overall followers in PA but the higher engagement and change in followers for Clinton suggest more enthusiasm for her on Facebook.
US Senate
|
RCP
Avg
%
PA
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre
Deb
|
%
Engaged
pre
Deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Deb
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg
in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Pat Toomey (R)
|
43.4
|
152,198
|
6,230
|
4.09
|
152,597
|
399
|
0.26
|
2,831
|
1.86
|
Katie McGinty (D)
|
43.8
|
21,367
|
1,770
|
8.28
|
21,541
|
174
|
0.81
|
1,140
|
5.29
|
This table looks at the Facebook pages for the US. Senate candidates Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty. The RCP average has them only 0.4% apart but Toomey has a decisive advantage in the number of followers. Both candidates had less than a 1% change in their followers over the weekend. McGinty did have a higher % engaged both pre and post debate. It's not possible to compute correlation coefficients with just two data points.
US House
12th
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
%
Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Keith
Rothfus (R)
|
12,718
|
94
|
0.74
|
12,726
|
8
|
0.06
|
57
|
0.45
|
Erin
McClelland (D)
|
3,492
|
198
|
5.67
|
3,503
|
11
|
0.32
|
123
|
3.51
|
In congressional races there is little public polling but we may look at their Facebook followings as a gage of support. In the PA House 12th congressional district incumbent Keith Rothfus has almost 3 times as many followers on Facebook (pre and post debate) but McClelland has a higher engagement in terms of number and %.
US House
9th
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
%
Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Bill Shuster
(R)
|
6,168
|
640
|
10.38
|
6,188
|
20
|
0.32
|
235
|
3.80
|
Art Halvorson
(D)
|
2,200
|
136
|
6.18
|
2,204
|
4
|
0.18
|
62
|
2.81
|
The PA 9th Congressional District race has incumbent Bill Shuster running against Art Halvorson. Halvorson challenged Shuster in the Republican primary and narrowly lost 52% to 48% but, as luck would have it, he received the most write in votes in the Democratic primary and is now running to become the first tea party democrat in Congress. The table above shows more followers and more engagement for Shuster.
State Senate
35th
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
%
Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Wayne
Langerholc (R)
|
1,472
|
327
|
22.21
|
1,476
|
4
|
0.27
|
124
|
8.40
|
Ed Cernic (D)
|
347
|
105
|
30.26
|
352
|
5
|
1.44
|
77
|
21.88
|
Looking at the State Senate race in the 35th district, Republican Wayne Langerholc has an advantage in followers and engaged pre and post debate. Ed Cernic has an advantage in the % engaged pre and post debate. There is no incumbent in this race.
State Senate
41st
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
%
Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Don White (R)
|
957
|
4
|
0.42
|
957
|
0
|
0.00
|
4
|
0.42
|
Tony DeLoreto
(D)
|
535
|
37
|
6.92
|
546
|
11
|
2.06
|
29
|
5.31
|
In the PA State Senate 41st district, incumbent Don White has an advantage in the number of followers but no change relative to the debate. Challenger Tony DeLoreto has an advantage in the gain in followers and the number engaged with his page.
State House
71st
|
FB
Followers
Pre
Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
%
Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net
gain
Post
Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Mark Amsdell (R)
|
148
|
4
|
2.70
|
151
|
3
|
2.03
|
1
|
0.66
|
Bryan Barbin (D)
|
404
|
6
|
1.49
|
404
|
0
|
0.00
|
6
|
1.49
|
In the 71st state house district (where I live) incumbent Bryan Barbin has an advantage in the number of followers and the number engaged but no increase from Friday to Monday.
State House 72nd
|
FB Followers
Pre Debate
|
FB
engaged
pre deb
|
% Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net gain
Post Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Cecelia Houser (R)
|
445
|
5
|
1.12
|
448
|
3
|
0.67
|
3
|
0.67
|
Frank Burns (D)
|
1,250
|
90
|
7.20
|
1,251
|
1
|
0.08
|
38
|
3.04
|
Incumbent Frank Burns (D) has an advantage in the 72nd district in the number of followers and in the number and % engaged with little change in the number of followers for either candidate.
State House 73rd
|
FB Followers
Pre Debate
|
FB engaged
pre deb
|
% Engaged
pre deb
|
FB
Followers
Post
Debate
|
Net gain
Post Deb
|
% Chg in
Followers
|
FB
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
%
Engaged
Post
Deb
|
Tommy Sankey (R)
|
587
|
15
|
2.56
|
587
|
0
|
0.00
|
2
|
0.34
|
Fred Weaver (D)
|
625
|
117
|
18.72
|
627
|
2
|
0.32
|
19
|
3.03
|
In the last race I am considering, the 73rd district in the PA State House, challenger Fred Weaver has an advantage over incumbent Tommy Sankey in the number of Facebook followers, the number and % engaged, and in the net gain in followers. Does this mean that this could be the upset special in the area? Time will tell.
**Related Posts**