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Correlation in the Gain in Facebook Followers and Poll Numbers for GOP Presidential Candidates in December |
Office
|
Dem Gain
|
GOP Gain
|
Diff
|
Female
candidate
|
Pres
|
2.68
|
0.41
|
2.27
|
Y
|
US Sen
|
0.81
|
0.26
|
0.55
|
Y
|
House12
|
0.32
|
0.06
|
0.25
|
Y
|
House9
|
0.18
|
0.32
|
-0.14
|
N
|
st sen 35
|
1.44
|
0.27
|
1.17
|
N
|
st sen 41
|
2.06
|
0
|
2.06
|
N
|
strep73
|
0.32
|
0
|
0.32
|
N
|
strep72
|
0.08
|
0.67
|
-0.59
|
Y
|
strep71
|
0
|
2.03
|
-2.03
|
N
|
Median
|
0.32
|
0.27
|
0.32
|
|
Mean
|
0.88
|
0.45
|
0.43
|
|
SD
|
0.97
|
0.63
|
1.33
|
This week I'm taking a look at what effect the Presidential debate and the vile Trump audio tape may have had on the down ballot races in terms of the gain in followers (above table) and in the change in the level of engagement (below table) for the period from Oct 7 to Oct 10. The above table shows the % gain in followers for the period covered. The above page shows a 2.68% increase for Clinton's PA Facebook page which was higher than Donald Trump's 0.41%. The mean (or statistical average) shows a higher percent increase for the Democrats than the Republicans but there was higher variability in the Democratic numbers. The median gain for all the Democratic candidates was 0.32% compared to 0.27% for the Republicans. This difference was not statistically significant.
Office
|
Dem Engaged
|
GOP Engaged
|
Diff
|
Female Candidate
|
Pres
|
26.81
|
1.37
|
25.44
|
Y
|
US Sen
|
5.29
|
1.86
|
3.44
|
Y
|
US House12
|
3.51
|
0.45
|
3.06
|
Y
|
US House 9
|
2.81
|
3.80
|
-0.98
|
N
|
State sen 35
|
21.88
|
8.40
|
13.47
|
N
|
State sen 41
|
5.31
|
0.42
|
4.89
|
N
|
State rep73
|
3.03
|
0.34
|
2.69
|
N
|
State rep72
|
3.04
|
0.67
|
2.37
|
Y
|
State rep71
|
1.49
|
0.66
|
0.82
|
N
|
Median
|
3.51
|
0.67
|
3.06
|
|
Mean
|
8.13
|
2.00
|
6.13
|
|
Std Dev
|
8.817001
|
2.491033
|
7.816291
|
For the percent engaged (a measure of enthusiasm by the followers on Facebook), there was a higher mean (8.13%) and median (3.51%) engaged for the Democrats than for the Republicans (2.00% and 0.67% respectively) with higher variability again for the Democrats. The Wilcoxon Signed Rank test for the difference in medians was significant (p=0.014). This shows more engagement for the Democrats. The only race where the Republican had more engagement was the US House 9th District race.
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Box Plot Showing Median Engagement by Party |
female candidate
|
male candidate
|
||
% Gain
|
Mean
|
0.85
|
0.28
|
Std Dev
|
1.20
|
1.54
|
|
Median
|
0.40
|
0.32
|
|
% Engaged
|
Mean
|
8.58
|
4.18
|
Std Dev
|
11.25
|
5.64
|
|
Median
|
3.25
|
2.70
|
I have found some evidence that the enthusiasm after the 2nd debate but not necessarily for a gain in followers (but no loss either). For the Presidential race in PA, the correlation with the Real Clear Politics Poll Average was 0.67 for the post debate engagement. This means that 45% of the variability in the poll average is accounted for by the post debate engagement. For election day I will look at how the Facebook numbers will change by election day and whether it will correspond with how they vote.