The District of Columbia has the highest rate of hate groups with 30.83 groups per million residents and hate crimes at 96.69 incidents per million residents. DC also had the largest increase in the hate group rate with an increase of 4.05 groups per million residents. The Midwestern and Mountain states of Montana, Idaho, and South Dakota have the next highest rates and rate increases.
The states with the largest decreases in the hate group rate were Vermont (-3.19 g/million), Oklahoma (-2.82 g/million), West Virginia (-2.15 g/million), South Carolina (-2.07 g/million), and Arkansas (-2.03 g/million). These states were ones with some of the highest rates of hate groups in 2015. The next step is to look at how are these rates associated with Donald Trump's % of the vote in 2016.
Regression models were run with Trump's % of the vote as the dependent variable and the 2016 hate group rate and the hate crime incidents in 2015 (the most recent year available. as the dependent variables. The hate group concentration was a significant predictor but hate crime incidents were not. The regression equation is given by:
Trump % = 42.84 + 2.33*(Hate Group Concentration)
This means that for those states with zero hate groups (Alaska and Hawaii), Trump would expect to have 42.8% of the vote. For every increase in the hate group concentration by one group per million residents for a state, Trump would expect an additional 2.33% of the vote. The graph above shows the fit of the regression line created by this equation. The regression model accounts for 20.1% of the variability in Trump's vote.
Washington, DC was not included in the model because it is an extremely high outlier in hate groups (30.83 groups/million) and hate crime incidents (96.69 incidents/million) and an extremely low outlier in Trump's % of the vote (4.1%). DC also has the highest population density of any state/territory in the electoral college. For these reasons plus the fact that DC is technically not a state, it was excluded from the model. The District would make an interesting area for social science research.
**Update**
I have received comments on Facebook that I implied that the concentration of hate groups in each state caused voters in that state to vote for him. I will state that prediction does not mean causation. A significant correlation or regression means that an increase in the one or more predictor variables considered coincides with a change in the outcome variable. There is always a potential third variable that was not considered that can explain the change in both variables. These include poverty and education. I will consider these variables in my next post.
**Update**
I have received comments on Facebook that I implied that the concentration of hate groups in each state caused voters in that state to vote for him. I will state that prediction does not mean causation. A significant correlation or regression means that an increase in the one or more predictor variables considered coincides with a change in the outcome variable. There is always a potential third variable that was not considered that can explain the change in both variables. These include poverty and education. I will consider these variables in my next post.
State Name
|
Hate groups 2016
|
Pop
2016
|
Hate groups per
million '16
|
Hate Crime
Incidents
Per million
'15
|
Hate
Groups per
Million '15
|
Trump
%
|
Change
in rate
|
US
|
917
|
323,127,513
|
2.84
|
18.20
|
2.78
|
46.7
|
0.06
|
District of Columbia
|
21
|
681,170
|
30.83
|
96.69
|
26.78
|
4.1
|
4.05
|
Montana
|
10
|
1,042,520
|
9.59
|
43.56
|
5.81
|
56.5
|
3.78
|
South Dakota
|
7
|
865,454
|
8.09
|
18.64
|
5.82
|
61.5
|
2.26
|
Idaho
|
12
|
1,683,140
|
7.13
|
20.54
|
4.83
|
59.2
|
2.30
|
Mississippi
|
18
|
2,988,726
|
6.02
|
0.00
|
6.35
|
58.3
|
-0.33
|
Tennessee
|
38
|
6,651,194
|
5.71
|
33.48
|
6.21
|
61.1
|
-0.50
|
Alabama
|
27
|
4,863,300
|
5.55
|
2.06
|
4.53
|
62.9
|
1.02
|
Arkansas
|
16
|
2,988,248
|
5.35
|
1.68
|
7.39
|
60.4
|
-2.03
|
Kentucky
|
23
|
4,436,974
|
5.18
|
42.48
|
2.94
|
62.5
|
2.25
|
Virginia
|
39
|
8,411,808
|
4.64
|
18.85
|
3.82
|
45
|
0.82
|
New Hampshire
|
6
|
1,334,795
|
4.50
|
9.77
|
4.51
|
47.2
|
-0.01
|
Delaware
|
4
|
952,065
|
4.20
|
11.63
|
5.29
|
41.9
|
-1.08
|
Missouri
|
24
|
6,093,000
|
3.94
|
16.44
|
3.62
|
57.1
|
0.32
|
Indiana
|
26
|
6,633,053
|
3.92
|
9.52
|
2.42
|
57.2
|
1.50
|
Wyoming
|
2
|
585,501
|
3.42
|
3.41
|
3.41
|
70.1
|
0.00
|
Pennsylvania
|
40
|
12,784,227
|
3.13
|
5.00
|
3.12
|
48.8
|
0.00
|
Georgia
|
32
|
10,310,371
|
3.10
|
4.31
|
3.82
|
51.3
|
-0.71
|
Florida
|
63
|
20,612,439
|
3.06
|
3.55
|
2.86
|
49.1
|
0.20
|
North Carolina
|
31
|
10,146,788
|
3.06
|
16.03
|
2.89
|
50.5
|
0.17
|
Ohio
|
35
|
11,614,373
|
3.01
|
35.82
|
2.93
|
52.1
|
0.09
|
Maryland
|
18
|
6,016,447
|
2.99
|
6.83
|
2.50
|
35.3
|
0.49
|
Louisiana
|
14
|
4,681,666
|
2.99
|
8.14
|
4.50
|
58.1
|
-1.51
|
Colorado
|
16
|
5,540,545
|
2.89
|
19.61
|
2.93
|
44.4
|
-0.04
|
Washington
|
21
|
7,288,000
|
2.88
|
38.35
|
1.12
|
38.2
|
1.77
|
Michigan
|
28
|
9,928,300
|
2.82
|
31.14
|
1.91
|
47.6
|
0.91
|
Oregon
|
11
|
4,093,465
|
2.69
|
16.13
|
2.23
|
41.1
|
0.45
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
1,907,116
|
2.62
|
10.02
|
2.64
|
60.3
|
-0.02
|
Arizona
|
18
|
6,931,071
|
2.60
|
40.42
|
2.64
|
49.5
|
-0.04
|
Illinois
|
32
|
12,801,539
|
2.50
|
7.00
|
1.79
|
39.4
|
0.71
|
South Carolina
|
12
|
4,961,119
|
2.42
|
11.23
|
4.49
|
54.9
|
-2.07
|
Kansas
|
7
|
2,907,289
|
2.41
|
21.29
|
1.72
|
57.2
|
0.69
|
New York
|
47
|
19,745,289
|
2.38
|
25.26
|
2.22
|
37.5
|
0.16
|
Maine
|
3
|
1,331,479
|
2.25
|
28.59
|
1.50
|
45.2
|
0.75
|
West Virginia
|
4
|
1,831,102
|
2.18
|
22.23
|
4.34
|
68.7
|
-2.15
|
California
|
79
|
39,250,017
|
2.01
|
21.38
|
1.74
|
32.7
|
0.28
|
Texas
|
55
|
27,862,596
|
1.97
|
6.95
|
3.06
|
52.6
|
-1.08
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
5,519,952
|
1.81
|
19.86
|
1.09
|
45.4
|
0.72
|
Massachusetts
|
12
|
6,811,779
|
1.76
|
60.49
|
1.47
|
33.5
|
0.29
|
New Jersey
|
15
|
8,944,469
|
1.68
|
36.84
|
2.34
|
41.8
|
-0.67
|
Vermont
|
1
|
624,594
|
1.60
|
12.78
|
4.79
|
32.6
|
-3.19
|
Wisconsin
|
9
|
5,778,708
|
1.56
|
7.45
|
1.56
|
47.9
|
0.00
|
Oklahoma
|
6
|
3,923,561
|
1.53
|
9.46
|
4.35
|
65.3
|
-2.82
|
Connecticut
|
5
|
3,576,452
|
1.40
|
25.90
|
0.56
|
41.2
|
0.84
|
Nevada
|
4
|
2,940,058
|
1.36
|
20.06
|
1.38
|
45.5
|
-0.02
|
North Dakota
|
1
|
757,952
|
1.32
|
47.56
|
2.64
|
64.1
|
-1.32
|
Iowa
|
4
|
3,134,693
|
1.28
|
1.92
|
1.60
|
51.8
|
-0.32
|
Utah
|
3
|
3,051,217
|
0.98
|
15.69
|
1.00
|
45.9
|
-0.02
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
2,081,015
|
0.96
|
6.23
|
1.44
|
40
|
-0.48
|
Rhode Island
|
1
|
1,056,426
|
0.95
|
17.04
|
2.84
|
39.8
|
-1.89
|
Alaska
|
0
|
741,894
|
0
|
10.83
|
0.00
|
52.9
|
0.00
|
Hawaii
|
0
|
1,428,557
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
30
|
0.00
|
