Trump % = % Uninsured * 1.3% + 36.1%
This equation states that a state with 0% uninsured (which doesn't exist) Trump would receive 36.1% of the vote with every 1% increase in the uninsured rate giving him an increase of 1.34% of the vote. This univariate model predicted the % of the vote of some states better than others. For the next step I took a look at whether this relationship would hold up if I added % uninsured to the model I created for hate group rates and Trump's % of the vote.
When I added the % uninsured to the model, I thought took a look at how it would perform in a model with hate group rate, % in poverty, and % with a bachelor's degree or higher. The full model gives the following estimates.
Trump % = %Uninsured * 0.6% - %Poverty*1.4% + Hate Groups*1.4% - %bachelors*1.6% + 105.6%
The intercept for this model suggests that for a state with values of zero for each of the predictors Trump would receive 105.6% of the vote which is impossible. The slopes for the predictors % poverty also contradicts the univariate analysis for this variable. This suggests a problem with multicollinearity which biases the regression coefficients. The change in the % of the variance explained suggests that the predictors are statistically significant. I tried to convert the values of the predictors and omit predictors with little success. To find regression coefficients that are more realistic, I need to use a regression method that is less susceptible to multicollinearity called ridge regression.
Trump % = %Uninsured*0.4% + %Poverty*0.02% + Hate Groups*0.9% - %bachelors*0.6% + 60.8%
These estimates are closer to what I found univariately and account for 68% of the variability in Trump's % of the vote. The above chart shows the relationship between % uninsured and Trump's % of the vote for the regular regression model. The predicted values are closer to the actual values for this model. The ridge coefficient estimates suggest that the concentration of hate groups have the strongest predictive effect on Trump's % of the vote followed by the % of the population with a bachelor's degree, the % uninsured, and the % in poverty.
**Update**
Below is the raw data used in this analysis.
**Update**
Below is the raw data used in this analysis.
State Name
|
Hate groups 2016
|
Pop 2016
|
Hate groups per million '16
|
% in poverty
|
% uninsured
|
% bachelors degree or higher
|
Trump %
|
Alabama
|
27
|
4863300
|
5.55
|
18.5
|
11.9
|
15.4
|
62.9
|
Alaska
|
0
|
741894
|
0
|
10.4
|
16.3
|
29.7
|
52.9
|
Arizona
|
18
|
6931071
|
2.6
|
17.4
|
12.8
|
27.7
|
49.5
|
Arkansas
|
16
|
2988248
|
5.35
|
18.7
|
11.1
|
21.8
|
60.4
|
California
|
79
|
39250017
|
2.01
|
15.4
|
9.7
|
32.3
|
32.7
|
Colorado
|
16
|
5540545
|
2.89
|
11.5
|
9.2
|
39.2
|
44.4
|
Connecticut
|
5
|
3576452
|
1.4
|
10.6
|
6.9
|
38.3
|
41.2
|
Delaware
|
4
|
952065
|
4.2
|
12.6
|
6.9
|
30.9
|
41.9
|
Florida
|
63
|
20612439
|
3.06
|
15.8
|
16.3
|
28.4
|
49.1
|
Georgia
|
32
|
10310371
|
3.1
|
17.2
|
15.8
|
29.9
|
51.3
|
Hawaii
|
0
|
1428557
|
0
|
10.7
|
4.8
|
31.4
|
30
|
Idaho
|
12
|
1683140
|
7.13
|
14.7
|
12.8
|
26
|
59.2
|
Illinois
|
32
|
12801539
|
2.5
|
13.6
|
8.2
|
32.9
|
39.4
|
Indiana
|
26
|
6633053
|
3.92
|
14.4
|
11.3
|
24.9
|
57.2
|
Iowa
|
4
|
3134693
|
1.28
|
12.1
|
5.9
|
26.8
|
51.8
|
Kansas
|
7
|
2907289
|
2.41
|
12.9
|
10.5
|
31.7
|
57.2
|
Kentucky
|
23
|
4436974
|
5.18
|
18.3
|
7.1
|
23.3
|
62.5
|
Louisiana
|
14
|
4681666
|
2.99
|
19.5
|
13.8
|
23.2
|
58.1
|
Maine
|
3
|
1331479
|
2.25
|
13.2
|
10.3
|
30.1
|
45.2
|
Maryland
|
18
|
6016447
|
2.99
|
9.9
|
7.4
|
38.8
|
35.3
|
Massachusetts
|
12
|
6811779
|
1.76
|
11.5
|
3.2
|
41.5
|
33.5
|
Michigan
|
28
|
9928300
|
2.82
|
15.7
|
7.2
|
27.8
|
47.6
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
5519952
|
1.81
|
10.2
|
5.2
|
34.7
|
45.4
|
Mississippi
|
18
|
2988726
|
6.02
|
22.1
|
14.8
|
20.8
|
58.3
|
Missouri
|
24
|
6093000
|
3.94
|
14.8
|
11.5
|
27.8
|
57.1
|
Montana
|
10
|
1042520
|
9.59
|
14.4
|
14.2
|
30.6
|
56.5
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
1907116
|
2.62
|
12.2
|
9.4
|
30.2
|
60.3
|
Nevada
|
4
|
2940058
|
1.36
|
14.9
|
14.1
|
23.6
|
45.5
|
New Hampshire
|
6
|
1334795
|
4.5
|
8.4
|
7.8
|
35.7
|
47.2
|
New Jersey
|
15
|
8944469
|
1.68
|
10.8
|
10
|
37.6
|
41.8
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
2081015
|
0.96
|
19.8
|
13.1
|
26.5
|
40
|
New York
|
47
|
19745289
|
2.38
|
15.5
|
8.2
|
35
|
37.5
|
North Carolina
|
31
|
10146788
|
3.06
|
16.4
|
13
|
29.4
|
50.5
|
North Dakota
|
1
|
757952
|
1.32
|
10.7
|
8.7
|
29.1
|
64.1
|
Ohio
|
35
|
11614373
|
3.01
|
14.8
|
7.7
|
26.8
|
52.1
|
Oklahoma
|
6
|
3923561
|
1.53
|
16
|
16.1
|
24.6
|
65.3
|
Oregon
|
11
|
4093465
|
2.69
|
15.2
|
8.4
|
32.2
|
41.1
|
Pennsylvania
|
40
|
12784227
|
3.13
|
13.1
|
7.6
|
29.7
|
48.8
|
Rhode Island
|
1
|
1056426
|
0.95
|
14.1
|
6.7
|
32.7
|
39.8
|
South Carolina
|
12
|
4961119
|
2.42
|
16.8
|
13
|
26.8
|
54.9
|
South Dakota
|
7
|
865454
|
8.09
|
13.5
|
11.8
|
27.5
|
61.5
|
Tennessee
|
38
|
6651194
|
5.71
|
16.7
|
12
|
25.7
|
61.1
|
Texas
|
55
|
27862596
|
1.97
|
15.9
|
19.2
|
28.4
|
52.6
|
Utah
|
3
|
3051217
|
0.98
|
11.2
|
11.6
|
31.8
|
45.9
|
Vermont
|
1
|
624594
|
1.6
|
10.4
|
4.7
|
36.9
|
32.6
|
Virginia
|
39
|
8411808
|
4.64
|
11.2
|
10.4
|
37
|
45
|
Washington
|
21
|
7288000
|
2.88
|
12.2
|
7.6
|
34.2
|
38.2
|
West Virginia
|
4
|
1831102
|
2.18
|
18
|
7.3
|
19.6
|
68.7
|
Wisconsin
|
9
|
5778708
|
1.56
|
12.1
|
6.6
|
28.4
|
47.9
|
Wyoming
|
2
|
585501
|
3.42
|
10.6
|
13.4
|
26.2
|
70.1
|
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