Wednesday, August 23, 2017
Last Sunday Meet The Press (the worlds longest running television series, not The Simpsons) announced the results of a poll they conducted in the pivotal states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin of President Trump's current approval ratings in those states. His approval ratings in these states are 36%, 35%, and 34% respectively with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. In 2016, Trump barely won Pennsylvania with 48.8% of the vote. In Cambria County, Trump won with 67% of the vote.
Assuming that the differences still hold between the county's approval for Trump and the State's approval still hold, we could extrapolate these results to Trump's approval rating in the county. This extrapolation rests on another assumption that his % of the vote is close to his overall approval rating. With his current PA % approval being 13% lower than his % of the vote last year, his approval in Cambria County may be closer to 54% now.
You may think that these assumptions are shaky at best. Yes it would be better to conduct a survey here to obtain a more precise estimate of his approval rating in Cambria County but these surveys are expensive to conduct. Often times extrapolation is the best we can do. It is safe to assume that his approval rating in the County is lower than it was last November.
Last Thursday here in Johnstown, PA (the largest city here in Cambria County), there was a unity rally in response to the terrible events in Charlottesville, VA. A large crowd was present as the panoramic photo I took shows. It was larger than the Love Trump's hate rally the Unity coalition had when Trump visited last year. On the Tribune Democrat Facebook page the post for the event received 115 responses on their response buttons: three of which were angry and the post was shared 20 times.