Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Evaluating a New Hate Group Measure

The Southern Poverty Law Center has come out with it's annual census of hate groups which shows .  Last week I wrote extensively on the national hate group numbers at The Hill Talk.  This week I will l look at a new way of measuring the reach of these groups.

The hate map for Pennssylvania (my home state) for 2017 showed a decrease in the number of groups from 40 in 2016 to 36.  The most common ideology was black nationalist groups like the Nation of Islam.  If one were to group the neo Nazi, KKK, racist skinhead, and white nationalist groups together they would total 19. Twelve of these groups had a statewide presence (meaning they have more than one chapter in the state or meet in more than one location there) including ten of the groups in the aforementioned categories.  These statewide groups are clustered in the center of the map below.  Ten of the 36 groups have their headquarters in the state.

Hate Map for PA in 2017
It would seem that a group with a statewide presence would have a larger reach in the community than a group with a local presence.  I counted the number of groups with a statewide presence in each state and gave them double the weight than groups with a local presence. For example Montana had eight total groups and 3 statewide in 2017.  The number 3 would be multiplied by two and added to the 5 local groups for a reach total of 11.  The numbers for each state are summarized at the bottom of the post.  The reach numbers were adjusted for population just as the hate group numbers were.  These rates were correlated with the raw hate group rates, hate crime rates, and Trump's % of the vote which was previously found to be correlated with hate group rates.

Corr w DC
Trump %
Hate groups per million
Reach per million
Crimes per milllion
Trump %
1
Hate groups per million
-0.41303
1
Reach per million
-0.36117
0.982297
1
Crimes per million
-0.55118
0.751414
0.685064
1
Corr wo DC
Trump %
Hate groups per million
Reach per million
Crimes per million
Trump %
1
Hate groups per million
0.347605
1
Reach per million
0.315453
0.940965
1
Crimes per million
-0.21537
-0.21743
-0.24976
1

Because DC was an extreme outlier in the hate group and hate crime rates the correlation coefficients were computed both with and without it.  Because DC is so small, all of the hate groups could be considered statewide.  This wasn't done as DC is technically not a state and is fundamentally different from the others.

In both cases the coefficients were smaller for the reach rate than for the standard hate group rate for hate crimes and Trump's % of the vote.  This suggests that the hate group reach/million is less valid than the standard hate group rate per million.  This could be because groups with a stable local presence are more likely to have a better rapport with the community.

State Name
Hate Groups 2017
Statewide hate groups 2017
Reach
pop 2017
Hate groups per million
Reach per million
Trump %
District of Columbia
26
0
26
693972
37.47
37.47
4.1
South Dakota
7
0
7
869666
8.05
8.05
61.5
Montana
8
3
11
1050493
7.62
10.47
56.5
Idaho
12
5
17
1716943
6.99
9.90
59.2
New Hampshire
9
4
13
1342795
6.70
9.68
47.2
Tennessee
37
11
48
6715984
5.51
7.15
61.1
Alaska
4
3
7
739795
5.41
9.46
52.9
Mississippi
15
4
19
2984100
5.03
6.37
58.3
Alabama
23
7
30
4874747
4.72
6.15
62.9
Nebraska
9
3
12
1920076
4.69
6.25
60.3
Indiana
31
17
48
6666818
4.65
7.20
57.2
Virginia
37
12
49
8470020
4.37
5.79
45.0
Oregon
18
11
29
4142776
4.34
7.00
41.1
Arkansas
12
2
14
3004279
3.99
4.66
60.4
Georgia
40
12
52
10429379
3.84
4.99
51.3
Colorado
21
6
27
5607154
3.75
4.82
44.4
Washington
26
10
36
7405743
3.51
4.86
38.2
Vermont
2
2
4
623657
3.21
6.41
32.6
Florida
66
15
81
20984400
3.15
3.86
49.1
Maryland
19
5
24
6052177
3.14
3.97
35.3
Arizona
22
4
26
7016270
3.14
3.71
49.5
North Carolina
32
12
44
10273419
3.11
4.28
50.5
Nevada
9
2
11
2998039
3.00
3.67
45.5
Missouri
18
3
21
6113532
2.94
3.44
57.1
Michigan
29
6
35
9962311
2.91
3.51
47.6
Rhode Island
3
3
6
1059639
2.83
5.66
39.8
Pennsylvania
36
13
49
12805537
2.81
3.83
48.8
South Carolina
14
3
17
5024369
2.79
3.38
54.9
Louisiana
13
3
16
4684333
2.78
3.42
58.1
Ohio
31
7
38
11658609
2.66
3.26
52.1
Illinois
34
7
41
12802023
2.66
3.20
39.4
North Dakota
2
2
4
755393
2.65
5.30
64.1
Oklahoma
10
4
14
3930864
2.54
3.56
65.3
Kentucky
11
3
14
4454189
2.47
3.14
62.5
New York
48
9
57
19849399
2.42
2.87
37.5
Texas
66
11
77
28304596
2.33
2.72
52.6
Maine
3
2
5
1335907
2.25
3.74
45.2
West Virginia
4
2
6
1815857
2.20
3.30
68.7
Minnesota
12
6
18
5576606
2.15
3.23
45.4
Delaware
2
0
2
961939
2.08
2.08
41.9
Wisconsin
11
4
15
5795483
1.90
2.59
47.9
California
75
16
91
39536653
1.90
2.30
32.7
New Jersey
17
4
21
9005644
1.89
2.33
41.8
Wyoming
1
1
2
579315
1.73
3.45
70.1
Connecticut
6
2
8
3588184
1.67
2.23
41.2
Massachusetts
10
2
12
6859819
1.46
1.75
33.5
Kansas
4
1
5
2913123
1.37
1.72
57.2
Iowa
4
2
6
3145711
1.27
1.91
51.8
Utah
3
1
4
3101833
0.97
1.29
45.9
Hawaii
1
0
1
1427538
0.70
0.70
30.0
New Mexico
1
0
1
2088070
0.48
0.48
40.0


**Related Posts**

Hate Groups and Trump's Vote%: Predictive effect present when education and poverty are considered


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