Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Will Trump be Impeached? Damned if I know


Listening to the endless chatter about Trump and Russia on MSNBC I keep thinking about whether there is anything else going on?  The Thai soccer team has been rescued. A mass shooting happened in Toronto.  France won the World Cup for a second time.  Followers of Bernie Sanders have won some stunning victories in the primaries.  Trump is threatening Iran again. Oops that's about Trump again.

It's easy to get caught up in all this hysteria.  I used to write a lot more about Trump and the election when there was a lot more data to sift through.  Of my previous 13 posts this year, this is my second this year about Trump and Russia.  One post was about James Comey's interview on ABC that was only tangentially about Trump.  The rest were about hate groups and recent graduating classes from my high school.  My posts have tried to focus on other issues that are marginally related to Trump if at all.  The graphic above shows how fast Mueller has been cranking out indictments much faster compared to other recent high profile federal investigations. 

The graphic shows that the pace of indictments is coming faster than the others considered, even Watergate.  In this modern world we do not have access to the information that the Muller investigation and the Russians have.  One would assume that Mueller's team would not pursue these indictments without strong evidence to back it up.  Will all this lead to the end of Trump's Presidency?

I don't know about the evidence but I do know the numbers of impeachment.  A simple majority of 218 out of 435 members in congress is needed to impeach in the US House.  After that a two thirds majority of the Senate is needed to remove him from office.  

If the democrats gain control of the house they can impeach him but it will be difficult to gain the 2/3 majority (67 out of 100 members) needed to convict without a significant number of Republicans defecting.  Trump remains popular among Republicans with 88% popularity.  His summit with Putin and other debacles have had no effect on his ratings.  His approval ratings would have to enter Nixon territory of 24% for significan GOP defections to happen.  Watergate whistle blower John Dean recently said that Nixon might have survived if Fox News had existed.


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