Friday, November 9, 2018

Election Reflections: Gains for PA Democrats Outside of Cambria County


My social media experiment did not work.  Of the nine local and statewide races I followed, only 5 winners had the greater social media presence (see table below).  In 2016 Facebook followings predicted the winner in 8 of the 9 races.  Does that mean that Russia does not care about our elections any more or voters are no longer swayed by their Facebook Posts?  No Idea.  Facebook no longer provides the same information on engagement that it did before 2016.

The race for the House and Senate produced a split decision with Democrats taking the House and Republicans gaining at least a few seats in the Senate. In Pennnsylvania, Democrats won statewide races for Senate and Governor.  They have also gained seats in the state House and Senate.  Lindsey Williams has won a close election for State Senate in the North Hills of Pittsburgh by 500 votes.  Locally Republicans John Joyce and Glenn Thompson won their races for the US house with Democrat Conor Lamb winning near Pittsburgh.  In Cambria County, Bryan Barbin lost a nail biter to Jim Rigby for his State House Seat and Frank Burns barely won his State House seat. 

Changes in voter registration appear to have played a greater role in the election results than social media followings.  I wrote an article for Public Source on voter registration in SW Pennsylvania and found a similar pattern to what I saw in Cambria and Somerset Counties.  There were gains for Democrats but not a huge blue wave that some have predicted.  The Democrats won the Governor's race and gained in the state legislature but Republicans are firmly in control.  The change in Pennsylvania's congressional delegation (13R and 5D before to 9D and 9R after) is mostly due to redistricting.


Office
Party
Facebook Following
RCP Avg %
Twitter Following
Facebook Following Nov 6
FB Change
Twitter Nov 6
Twitter Change
Results %
Winner with Greater Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No

US Senate





Lou Barletta
R
39,290
37.7
9021
41512
2222
11702
2681
42.77

Bob Casey
D
37,787
52
5664
38588
801
6159
495
55.58
0

Dale Kerns
L
4438

725
5052
614
850
125
1.02

Neal Gale
G
205

40
348
143
143
103
0.62


Governor
Party
Facebook Following
RCP Avg %
Twitter Following
Facebook Following Nov 6
FB Change
Twitter Nov 6
Twitter Change
Results %
Winner with Greater Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No

Scott Wagner
R
171696
36.7
5537
172803
1107
6367
830
40.82

Tom Wolf
D
114342
56.3
24879
115616
1274
26081
1202
57.64
0

Kenneth Krawchuck
L
2701
3167
466
0.98

Paul Glover
G
1191
1278
87
0.55


Congress
Party
Facebook Following
RCP Avg %
Twitter Following
Facebook Following Nov 6
FB Change
Twitter Nov 6
Twitter Change
Results %
Winner with Greater Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No

15th District

Glenn Thompson
R
1203
2945
1318
115
2946
1
67.9
1

Susan Boser
D
1372
848
1576
204
1030
182
32.1

13th District

John Joyce
R
1527
400
1595
68
463
63
70.44
1

Brent Ottaway
D
1068
376
1106
38
477
101
29.56

17th District

Keith Rothfus
R
11847
42
2332
11943
96
2488
156
43.79

Conor Lamb
D
30035
54
84647
30456
421
85843
1196
56.21
1


State Senate
Party
Facebook Following
RCP Avg %
Twitter Following
Facebook Following Nov 6
FB Change
Twitter Nov 6
Twitter Change
Results %
Winner with Greater Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No

30th District

Judy Ward
R
1026
1047
21
72.93
0

Emily Best
D
1105
451
1444
339
500
49
27.07

38th District

Jeremy Shaffer
R
2034
199
2322
288
207
8
49.78

Lindsey Williams
D
1522
1387
1670
148
1456
69
50.22
1











State House
Party
Facebook Following
RCP Avg %
Twitter Following
Facebook Following Nov 6
FB Change
Twitter Nov 6
Twitter Change
Results %
Winner with Greater Social Media Presence 1=Yes 0=No

72nd District

Gerald Carnicella
R
25
0
26
1
47.62

Frank Burns
D
1810
1408
1826
16
1428
20
52.38
1

71st District

Jim Rigby
R
35
0
36
1
52.27
0

Bryan Barbin
D
517
856
527
10
869
13
47.73


**Related Posts**

Losses in Registered Democrats have Accelerated Since 2016 for Cambria and Somerset Counties (PA)


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