I have taken the plunge and bought a Domain name for this blog, https://www.csiwithoutdeadbodies.com/. For the time being I will stay with blogger to see how it influences the traffic I get.
I will focus my first post on the upcoming 2018 election looking at the candidate's social media followings. In the 2016 election I looked at 9 races in Pennsylvania from Presidential to statewide to local races. The candidate with the larger following on Facebook won eight of the nine races I looked at. This year I will see how the social media following of their campaigns (not their official office pages) predict the winners.
The 2018 US Senate race is considered to be a safe one for incumbent Bob Casey. Challenger Lou Barletta's Twitter and Facebook followings are larger but Casey's is leading comfortably in the polls. Trump has campaigned for Barletta in the state because they have similar views on immigration.
The other statewide race in Pennsylvania is the Governor's race. Incumbent Tom Wolf has a sizeable lead in the polls and in his Twitter following but Scott Wagner has a lead in the Facebook following.
There are three congressional races that I am following which are near where I live. The state supreme court has redrawn the districts to prevent gerrymadering. In the 15th district which extends from Cambria county to the New York line, challenger Susan Boser has a slight lead in Facebook but incumbent Thompson has a lead in Twitter. In the 13th District there is no incumbent. Republican Dr. John Joyce has a lead over Brent Ottaway in Facebook and Twitter. There is no public polling available for these two districts.
There was one public poll taken in the 17th district in July for the race between Keith Rothfus and Conor Lamb. Lamb won a close special election earlier this year but with redistricting now has to run against another incumbent. The large social media followings of both candidates suggest a robust race with Lamb ahead.
There is one state Senate race in this area that I am following. Republican Judy Ward is running against state rep. Emily Best for the 30th state senate district. Best has a slight lead in her Facebook following. I couldn't find a Twitter account for Ward.
The last races that I am looking at are the state house races in the 71st and 72nd districts. The incumbent democrats in both districts have leads in Twitter followings over their challengers. Challengers Rigby and Carnicella do not have Facebook pages for thir campaigns.
Facebook no longer publicly provides data on the followings that their pages have. Facebook has come under scrutiny for the role that they played in the last election. It remains to be seen what role they will play in this year. In this part of the country the #metoo movment is not likely to have an impact in getting women elected as there are three women candidates out of the 20 considered.
**Related Posts**
I will focus my first post on the upcoming 2018 election looking at the candidate's social media followings. In the 2016 election I looked at 9 races in Pennsylvania from Presidential to statewide to local races. The candidate with the larger following on Facebook won eight of the nine races I looked at. This year I will see how the social media following of their campaigns (not their official office pages) predict the winners.
Office
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
Twitter Following
|
|
US Senate
|
||||
Lou Barletta
|
R
|
39290
|
36%
|
9021
|
Bob Casey
|
D
|
37787
|
52%
|
5664
|
Dale Kerns
|
L
|
4438
|
725
|
|
Neal Gale
|
G
|
205
|
40
|
The 2018 US Senate race is considered to be a safe one for incumbent Bob Casey. Challenger Lou Barletta's Twitter and Facebook followings are larger but Casey's is leading comfortably in the polls. Trump has campaigned for Barletta in the state because they have similar views on immigration.
Governor
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
Twitter Following
|
|
Scott Wagner
|
R
|
171696
|
36.5
|
5537
|
Tom Wolf
|
D
|
114342
|
53.3
|
24879
|
Kenneth Krawchuck
|
L
|
2701
|
||
Paul Glover
|
G
|
1191
|
The other statewide race in Pennsylvania is the Governor's race. Incumbent Tom Wolf has a sizeable lead in the polls and in his Twitter following but Scott Wagner has a lead in the Facebook following.
Congress
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
Twitter Following
|
|
15th District
|
||||
Glenn Thompson
|
R
|
1203
|
2945
|
|
Susan Boser
|
D
|
1372
|
848
|
|
13th District
|
||||
John Joyce
|
R
|
1527
|
400
|
|
Brent Ottaway
|
D
|
1068
|
376
|
|
17th District
|
||||
Keith Rothfus
|
R
|
11847
|
40
|
2332
|
Conor Lamb
|
D
|
30035
|
53
|
84647
|
There are three congressional races that I am following which are near where I live. The state supreme court has redrawn the districts to prevent gerrymadering. In the 15th district which extends from Cambria county to the New York line, challenger Susan Boser has a slight lead in Facebook but incumbent Thompson has a lead in Twitter. In the 13th District there is no incumbent. Republican Dr. John Joyce has a lead over Brent Ottaway in Facebook and Twitter. There is no public polling available for these two districts.
There was one public poll taken in the 17th district in July for the race between Keith Rothfus and Conor Lamb. Lamb won a close special election earlier this year but with redistricting now has to run against another incumbent. The large social media followings of both candidates suggest a robust race with Lamb ahead.
State Senate
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg
|
Twitter Following
|
30th District
|
||||
Judy Ward
|
R
|
1026
|
||
Emily Best
|
D
|
1105
|
451
|
|
There is one state Senate race in this area that I am following. Republican Judy Ward is running against state rep. Emily Best for the 30th state senate district. Best has a slight lead in her Facebook following. I couldn't find a Twitter account for Ward.
State House
|
Party
|
Facebook Following
|
RCP Avg
|
Twitter Following
|
72nd District
|
||||
Gerald Carnicella
|
R
|
25
|
||
Frank Burns
|
D
|
1810
|
1408
|
|
71st District
|
||||
Jim Rigby
|
R
|
35
|
||
Bryan Barbin
|
D
|
517
|
856
|
|
The last races that I am looking at are the state house races in the 71st and 72nd districts. The incumbent democrats in both districts have leads in Twitter followings over their challengers. Challengers Rigby and Carnicella do not have Facebook pages for thir campaigns.
Facebook no longer publicly provides data on the followings that their pages have. Facebook has come under scrutiny for the role that they played in the last election. It remains to be seen what role they will play in this year. In this part of the country the #metoo movment is not likely to have an impact in getting women elected as there are three women candidates out of the 20 considered.
**Related Posts**
