Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Is the Shutdown the Tipping Point for Trump?

Previously I reported on how Trump's approval ratings have remained remarkably consistent in the face of revelations of scandals and the separation of immigrant children from their families.  Since then Trump's Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of approval ratings took a brief dip from 43% to 40% in the events surrounding Sen. John McCain's funeral and Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort's convictions but a few weeks later rebounded to 44%.  

The latest change in his approval ratings has come after the government shutdown that Trump has started since Christmas time.  The RCP average has now dipped to 41% with his overall disapproval ratings rising to 55.5% as seen in the chart above.  Even Rasmussen, the polling firm that has been most kind to Trump has his approval rating at 43%.  According to Quinnipiac and CNN, Trump's approval ratings are over 80% among Republicans.  

I said before that the Republicans would have to abandon him in droves for him to be removed from office by impeachment.  67 votes in the Senate would be needed for that.  A 2% decrease is not droves.  It would have to be around 10% for it to be droves.  Back in August Trump's approval rating on the economy was 50.8% according to RCP.  Now it is at 49.4% with a 44.6 disapproval rating which is still considerably higher than his overall approval rating even with the pain caused by the shutdown.  Rasmussen's polls are not included in his approval rating on the economy.  

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