Sunday, February 24, 2019

New Hate Group Estimates: Has the SPLC adopted my method?


The Southern Poverty Law Center has published it's annual hate group estimates for each state in the US.  They tracked 1,020 groups last year which is the most they've ever tracked.  The next highest number they tracked was 1,018 in 2011.  Adjusting these national numbers for population gives 3.27 groups per million in 2011 and 3.12 groups per million in 2018 which suggests slightly higher activity in 2011.

The above map shows the distribution of hate groups across the US in 2018.  States with a larger number of hate groups per capita, expressed as groups per 100,000 residents, are indicated with a darker red.  This is a new feature of their hate group map.  Since 2014 this blog has been expressing the population adjusted hate group as groups per million.  I'm glad that they have adopted my method.  

31 out of the 51 states or 61% (DC included) had an increase in their rates since 2014.  The District of Columbia (DC) had the largest increase in the rate as well as the highest rate of any state by far.  Vermont had the largest decrease to fall to 49th in the US.  Of the 29 states that Trump won in 2016, 18 had rates higher than the national rate in 2018.  The table below shows the rates for the US and each state from 2014 and 2016-2018. 




State Name
Hate groups 2014
Hate groups per million '14
Hate groups 2016
Hate groups per million '16
Hate Groups 2017
Hate groups per million '17
Hate groups 2018
Population 2018
Hate groups per million '18
Change '14-'18
US
939
2.99
917
2.84
954
2.93
1020
327,167,434
3.12
0.13
District of Columbia
15
23.72
21
30.83
26
37.47
27
702,455
38.44
14.72
South Dakota
3
3.6
7
8.09
7
8.05
7
882,235
7.93
4.33
New Hampshire
7
5.3
6
4.5
9
6.7
10
1,356,458
7.37
2.07
Montana
8
7.96
10
9.59
8
7.62
7
1,062,305
6.59
-1.37
Idaho
9
5.64
12
7.13
12
6.99
10
1,754,208
5.7
0.06
Alaska
1
1.37
0
0
4
5.41
4
737,438
5.42
4.05
Tennessee
37
5.73
38
5.71
37
5.51
36
6,770,010
5.32
-0.41
Kansas
5
1.73
7
2.41
4
1.37
14
2,911,505
4.81
3.08
Alabama
22
4.56
27
5.55
23
4.72
23
4,887,871
4.71
0.15
Arkansas
24
8.14
16
5.35
12
3.99
14
3,013,825
4.65
-3.49
Virginia
26
3.18
39
4.64
37
4.37
39
8,517,685
4.58
1.4
Louisiana
26
3.18
14
2.99
13
2.78
21
4,659,978
4.51
1.33
Mississippi
22
7.37
18
6.02
15
5.03
13
2,986,530
4.35
-3.02
Nebraska
9
4.85
5
2.62
9
4.69
8
1,929,268
4.15
-0.7
North Dakota
1
1.43
1
1.32
2
2.65
3
760,077
3.95
2.52
Missouri
23
3.82
24
3.94
18
2.94
24
6,126,452
3.92
0.1
Georgia
50
5.04
32
3.1
40
3.84
41
10,519,475
3.9
-1.14
Colorado
17
3.28
16
2.89
21
3.75
22
5,695,564
3.86
0.58
North Carolina
33
3.38
31
3.06
32
3.11
40
10,383,620
3.85
0.47
Maine
2
1.5
3
2.25
3
2.25
5
1,338,404
3.74
2.24
Washington
10
1.45
21
2.88
26
3.51
28
7,535,591
3.72
2.27
Indiana
26
3.98
26
3.92
31
4.65
24
6,691,878
3.59
-0.39
Oregon
9
2.31
11
2.69
18
4.34
15
4,190,713
3.58
1.27
Florida
58
3
63
3.06
66
3.15
75
21,299,325
3.52
0.52
Hawaii
0
0
0
0
1
0.7
5
1,420,491
3.52
3.52
Maryland
15
2.55
18
2.99
19
3.14
21
6,042,718
3.48
0.93
South Carolina
20
4.23
12
2.42
14
2.79
17
5,084,127
3.34
-0.89
Nevada
8
2.9
4
1.36
9
3
10
3,034,392
3.3
0.4
Michigan
18
1.82
28
2.82
29
2.91
31
9,995,915
3.1
1.28
Ohio
31
2.69
35
3.01
31
2.66
36
11,689,442
3.08
0.39
Kentucky
15
3.42
23
5.18
11
2.47
13
4,468,402
2.91
-0.51
Utah
6
2.1
3
0.98
3
0.97
9
3,161,105
2.85
0.75
Pennsylvania
41
3.21
40
3.13
36
2.81
36
12,807,060
2.81
-0.4
Arizona
20
3.05
18
2.6
22
3.14
20
7,171,646
2.79
-0.26
West Virginia
10
5.39
4
2.18
4
2.2
5
1,805,832
2.77
-2.62
Wisconsin
10
1.75
9
1.56
11
1.9
15
5,813,568
2.58
0.83
Texas
57
2.19
55
1.97
66
2.33
73
28,701,845
2.54
0.35
Illinois
23
1.79
32
2.5
34
2.66
31
12,741,080
2.43
0.64
New York
42
2.15
47
2.38
48
2.42
47
19,542,209
2.41
0.26
Oklahoma
17
4.46
6
1.53
10
2.54
9
3,943,079
2.28
-2.18
Minnesota
8
1.49
10
1.81
12
2.15
12
5,611,179
2.14
0.65
California
77
2.02
79
2.01
75
1.9
83
39,557,045
2.1
0.08
Delaware
4
4.36
4
4.2
2
2.08
2
967,171
2.07
-2.29
Massachusetts
12
1.81
12
1.76
10
1.46
14
6,902,149
2.03
0.22
New Jersey
44
4.96
15
1.68
17
1.89
18
8,908,520
2.02
-2.94
Rhode Island
3
2.86
1
0.95
3
2.83
2
1,057,315
1.89
-0.97
Wyoming
2
3.47
2
3.42
1
1.73
1
577,737
1.73
-1.74
Connecticut
5
1.39
5
1.4
6
1.67
6
3,572,665
1.68
0.29
Vermont
4
6.39
1
1.6
2
3.21
1
626,299
1.6
-4.79
Iowa
5
1.63
4
1.28
4
1.27
3
3,156,145
0.95
-0.68
New Mexico
6
2.88
2
0.96
1
0.48
0
2,095,428
0
-2.88
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