Thursday, March 7, 2019

State Hate Group Rate Still Predicts Trump State Approval Rating

Morning Consult Map of Trump Net Approval Ratings 
Last week The Southern Poverty Law Center came out with its annual hate group estimates for each state.  I commented on how they produced a hate map with the numbers.  You can see how Trump's net approval rating in the map above corresponds the the population adjusted hate map below.  I will look more closely at how the state hate group rates predict Trump's approval ratings for the 50 states.  Washington DC is excluded because it is an extreme outlier and is fundamentally different from the other states.  

I will look at how the change in hate group rates from 2014-2018, the overall hate group rate for 2018 correlate with Trump's state approval (% saying that they approve of the job he is doing) and his net approval rating (% approve- % disapprove). 


Hate groups per million '18
 Trump Net Approval
Trump State Approval  '19
Change in Hate Groups '14-'18
Hate groups per million '18
1
Trump Net Approval
0.364
1
Trump State Approval  '19
0.367
0.999
1
Change in Hate Groups  '14-'18
0.465
-0.136
-0.141
1

The table above shows the correlation coefficients for the four variables with each other.  The significant variables are in bold.  The rate of Hate groups per million was significantly correlated with the other three variables.  The correlation was slightly stronger for Trump's state approval ratings (0.367 or 13.5% of the variability explained) than for Trump's net approval (0.364 or 13.2% of the variance explained) with the hate group rate.  These correlations can be seen in the graphs below.  West Virginia and Wyoming were outliers as they had low hate group rates but high Trump approval.  Likewise New Hampshire was an outlier as it had a high hate group rate but low Trump approval.  Otherwise states with higher Trump approval have higher hate group concentrations.



The change in the hate group rate was most strongly correlated with the 2018 rate (0.465) which is expected.  Trump's approval and net approval rates had a near perfect correlation (0.999 or 99% explained).  For illustration purposes that graph for this correlation is shown below to show what a near perfect correlation looks like.





**Related Posts**


Concentration of Hate Groups Predict Hate Crimes (if you consider DC) and Trump Vote (if you don't)


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