Saturday, January 19, 2019

2020: Rarin to Go


It even surprises me to see how many candidates have thrown their hats into the Presidential ring for 2020.  Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro, and Kirsten Gillibrand.  The Guardian lists three others of whom I have never heard: State Sen. Richard Ojeda (D-WV), Businessman Andrew Yang, and Former Congressman John Delaney.  They also list at least 20 other candidates including Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

One reason why so many are jumping in early is that they are salivating at getting a chance to take on the unpopular Trump.  Another is that the lesser known candidates have to start early raising money and organizing to be competitive.  Sanders' 2016 campaign has provided a model for how to raise large amounts of money without relying on corporate and wealthy donors.  

I'm reminded of the 2016 campaign when there were 16 Republican candidates (including one woman, one African American, one Hispanic, and one Indian American as of August 2015 vying for the chance to take on Hillary Clinton (who might give it another go this time).  They had to split the debates into a main debate and a "kid's table" debate based on poll numbers.  By the time the Iowa caucuses rolled around the field had whittled down to 11.  It's hard to imagine there being such a large field by the time Iowa 2020 rolls around but it likely will be the more diverse than the Republican field.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Is the Shutdown the Tipping Point for Trump?


Previously I reported on how Trump's approval ratings have remained remarkably consistent in the face of revelations of scandals and the separation of immigrant children from their families.  Since then Trump's Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of approval ratings took a brief dip from 43% to 40% in the events surrounding Sen. John McCain's funeral and Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort's convictions but a few weeks later rebounded to 44%.  

The latest change in his approval ratings has come after the government shutdown that Trump has started since Christmas time.  The RCP average has now dipped to 41% with his overall disapproval ratings rising to 55.5% as seen in the chart above.  Even Rasmussen, the polling firm that has been most kind to Trump has his approval rating at 43%.  According to Quinnipiac and CNN, Trump's approval ratings are over 80% among Republicans.  

I said before that the Republicans would have to abandon him in droves for him to be removed from office by impeachment.  67 votes in the Senate would be needed for that.  A 2% decrease is not droves.  It would have to be around 10% for it to be droves.  Back in August Trump's approval rating on the economy was 50.8% according to RCP.  Now it is at 49.4% with a 44.6 disapproval rating which is still considerably higher than his overall approval rating even with the pain caused by the shutdown.  Rasmussen's polls are not included in his approval rating on the economy.  


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