Saturday, March 14, 2020

Corona Numbers from the WHO

I can't remember a more extreme response to a situation as there is to the Corona Virus.  The next biggest thing I can remember is the response to the 9/11 attacks. With everything closed it gives me more time to write here about where the state of the pandemic is.  

The World Health Organization (WHO) has an online dashboard showing where the cases of covid-19 are and how many there are in the world as of march 13 of this year.  The image on the left state how many cases there are (142,538), how many deaths there are to date (5,391), and how many countries or territories there are with confirmed cases (135).  

The graph below is called a histogram.  It shows how many confirmed cases there are per day from January 13 to March 13 of this year.  it shows that there was a spike in cases on February 12 with approximately 15,200 new cases that day. The second spike in cases came on March 12 with approximately 11,600 new cases worldwide.

Dividing the 5,931 deaths by the 142,538 cases gives a worldwide mortality rate of 3.8% so far.



The second graph is an ogive graph that shows the increase in the total number of cases for each day over the same period.  Each dot on the line represent one day over this period.  The flatter areas indicate a slower growth rate for the epidemic and steeper areas suggest a higher growth rate.  The WHO's dashboard also provides this data for other countries with confirmed cases.



China has the most cases with 81,121 because this is where the pandemic began.  The graph shows that after the spike on Feb 12, the rate of growth there has leveled off.  The mortality rate there is 3.9%.  They have taken the most stringent measures to control the spread of the disease by quarantining whole cities.

Italy has the second most confirmed cases so far with 17,660 and 1,268 deaths.  The graph above shows an exponential growth rate for the disease.  The mortality rate there is 7.2%. Iran has the second highest number of cases with 11,364 and 514 reported deaths and a 4.5% mortality rate.  It has a similar growth curve as Italy.


The United States has the eighth largest number of cases with 1,678 and 48 deaths.  The above graph for the US has a similar growth rate as Italy starting on March 8.  The mortality rate so far here is 2.9%.  



I try not to make predictions about what will happen in pandemics like these.  Italy has put most of the country under quarantine .  It has yet to curtail the number of new cases.  

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