Wednesday, July 1, 2020

A Second Wave of COVID-19 Cases in Cambria and Allegheny Counties?


Cambria County has experienced 22 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 7 days to give a total of 83 cases.  In the previous 37 days, the county had a net increase of 7 cases.  The best fit line is now a fifth order polynomial with an R-square of 99%.  In the graph below, a second order polynomial provided the best fit for the cumulative case curve for the months of March and April with an R-square of 97%.



The map above shows the distribution of the 83 cases in Cambria County by zip code.  The lightest blue zip codes have zero confirmed or probable cases.  The next darker color blue zip codes have between 1 and 4 cases.  The next darker blue colored zip codes have between 5 and 10 cases.  The zip code with the most confirmed cases is 15904 with 7 cases. This zip code covers Richland Township followed by 15931 (Ebensburg) at 6, the Johnstown zip codes of 15905 and 15902 and the Portage zipcode 15946 with 5 each.  The most tested zip code in Johnstown is 15901 with enough tests to cover 12.32% of it's population.  The image below is a screenshot of the distribution of cases on April 26 showing all of the light blue zip codes with the number of cases between 1 and 4.


So far there hasn't been an increase in the number of deaths which tend to follow an increase in cases.  Allegheny County has been showing a similar rise in cases, over 400 in the last five days.  So far they have not had a corresponding increase in deaths.  The bars have been closed down in Allegheny County but not in Cambria County so far.  WEAR A Mask!!!!


**UPDATE**

WTAE in Pittsburgh reports that it is now mandatory to wear masks in publicBelow is a graph showing the trend in testing and cases in the county since March.



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