Tuesday, September 8, 2020

How Many Active COVID-19 Cases are in Cambria County?

This Labor Day, Cambria County reached a milestone of cumulative 500 cases of COVID-19 (448 confirmed, 52 probable).   It took 107 days to reach 100 cases, 17 to reach 200 cases, 12 to reach 300 cases, 13 to reach 400 cases, and 20 days to reach 500 cases.  Testing rates have continued to decrease for the county.

Pennsylvania's Department of Health reports that 81% of the state's 140,359 cumulative cases or 113,691 have recovered from the virus. If we assume that this recovery rate is the same for Cambria County (a shaky assumption) we find the number of recovered cases in the county by multiplying 0.81 times the number of total cases for today (504) minus the number of dead for the county (6).  We subtract the number of dead because they obviously cannot recover from the virus.  Here is the formula to compute the estimated number recovered:

0.81 * (504 - 6) = 0.81 * 498 = 403.38 or round up to 404 recovered cases.

Subtracting the 404 from the 498 gives 94 active cases under this formula.

The 81% number is determined this way according to the state website:

"Individuals who have recovered is determined using a calculation, similar to what is being done by several other states. If a case has not been reported as a death, and it is more than 30 days past the date of their first positive test (or onset of symptoms) then an individual is considered recovered."

The health department does not have access to The graph above and the table below shows that in the last 30 days (from 8/10/2020 to today 9/8/2020) the total number of cases increased from 341 to 504.  There were three total deaths in the county at the beginning of this period and six at the end.  Subtracting the three deaths up to this date from the total gives an estimate of 338 recovered or 67% of the total cases.  If we subtract the estimated number  recovered from the total living cases (498) gives an estimated number of 160 active cases.  Of these active cases, two are on a ventilator and eight are hospitalized.

 Date 8/10 9/8 Cases 341 504 Total Deaths 3 6 Recovered Cases 338 Active cases 160

On lighter note I have been informed that my book will be available from the printing press on September 14.

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