Saturday, March 21, 2020

Corona Numbers from the WHO and JHU

Week 2 of the state of emergency is upon us.  Last week I posted numbers from the World Heath Organization's (WHO) Corona Virus dashboard showing the progression in the number of cases worldwide.  Above is the cumulative frequency graph and overall numbers from their dashboard last week.  

At the left is the WHO's world wide cumulative frequency chart from today.  The number of cases increased by 123,535 or 87%.  The number of deaths increased by 5,793 or 107%.  

The two curves show that after the curve was starting to flatten out (mostly in China), it began to increase exponentially in early March everywhere but China.  The mortality rate for the total number of cases a week ago was 3.8%.  Currently the rate is 4.2% with it being the highest in Italy where it is 8.6%.

Johns-Hopkins University (JHU) also has a dashboard that is frequently cited in the news media.  Their reported numbers are higher than the WHO's. They report 287,238 cases worldwide with 11,942 deaths.  The mortality rate according to their numbers is also 4.2%.  




The JHU dashboard also provides the numbers of people who have recovered from the virus.  According to them, 89,899 have recovered worldwide from the virus or 31% of the total cases. The graph above shows the cumulative number of cases in mainland China (orange line) and the cumulative number of cases everywhere else (yellow line).  We can see that the yellow line is still growing while china's line has flattened.  The number of recovered cases has been growing steadily.


Top 10 Countries with Cases according to WHO and JHU and the differences between numbers
World health Organization
Johns Hopkins University
Difference Between Countries
China 
81416
China
81304
China 
112
Italy 
47021
Italy
47021
Italy 
0
Spain 
19980
Spain
25374
Spain 
-5394
Iran
19644
Germany
21652
Iran
-966
Germany 
18323
Iran
20610
Germany 
-3329
US
15219
US
19931
US
-4712
France 
12475
France
12483
France 
-8
S Korea 
8799
S Korea
8799
S Korea 
0
Switzerland 
4840
Switzerland
6113
Switzerland 
-1273
United Kingdom 
3983
United Kingdom
4014
United Kingdom 
-31

The numbers for each country differ between the two dashboards.  The top 10 countries with cases are presented above with the number of cases reported.  The two dashboards agree on the countries in the top 10.  The order that the countries are ranked agree except for Iran and Germany which are flipped for fourth and fifth.  The two dashboards agree on the number of cases only for Italy and South Korea.  The greatest discrepancies for the two dashboards are for Spain (-5,394), the US (-4,712), and Germany (-3,329) with JHU having more cases.

Certainly there is confusion keeping track of all the cases in a world with more than 7 billion inhabitants.  The countries most affected are some of the richest and most powerful in Asia, Europe, and North America with the exception of Iran.  Until the curve of new cases flattens out the state of emergency is likely to continue.  The video below gives a good summary of how epidemics and pandemics progress.



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