Thursday, May 28, 2020

A Comparison of State Mortality Rates: Pennsylvania is 6th Highest, Michigan is Highest

In my last post I spoke of how Pennsylvania's case mortality rate (7.16%) was greater than the U.S. rate (5.91%).  At the time I was unsure how the state compared to the other states in the case mortality rate.  To do this I looked at the cases reported on Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard.  The numbers that they report for Pennsylvania (74,045 cases, 5,373 deaths) are different than reported by the state department of health (70,042 cases, 5,373 deaths).  This is due to Johns-Hopkins relying on media reports of cases as well as government reports.  Deaths from the disease are easier to track than cases.

The case mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of reported cases.  The numbers for each state as of yesterday are displayed at the table below.  Johns-Hopkins reports cases and deaths on the U.S. flagged Grand Princess and Diamond Princess cruise ships are included in the total.  Michigan has the highest case mortality rate at 9.59% followed by Connecticut at 9.21%, the U.S. Virgin Islands at 8.70%, New York at 8.08%, New Jersey at 7.24%, and Pennsylvania at 7.16%.  The high rate for Michigan is troubling given all of the protests against the coronavirus lockdown there.

Looking at the population adjusted mortality rate as deaths per 100,000 population, not surprisingly, New York has the highest rate at 151.56/100,000 followed by New Jersey at 127.66/100,000, Connecticut at 106.67/100,000, Massachusetts at 93.91/100,000, and the District of Columbia at 63.05/100,000.  Pennsylvania is 9th on this measure (41.13/100,000) and is right behind Michigan which is at 53.41/100,000.

New York is also first in coronavirus cases at 1,876.08/100,000 followed by New Jersey at 1763.39/100,000, Massachusetts at 1359.35/100,000, Rhode Island at 1354.87/100,000, and the District of Columbia at 1191.08/100,000.  Pennsylvania is 13th on this measure at 574.57/100,000 which is just ahead of Michigan which is at 556.84/100,000.  The U.S rate on this measure is 514.95/100,000.  


The graph above shows the state case mortality rate by population (the two cruise ships are excluded).  There is no linear association between the state's population and their case mortality rate.  The line crossing the graph just below 6% is the U.S. case mortality rate.  

The population rates indicate the prevalence in the population of coronavirus cases and deaths.  The case mortality rates are an indication of the strain that the disease has placed on the health care systems in that state.  Michigan Pennsylvania, and the Virgin Islands with low population adjusted mortality rates but high case mortality rates suggest additional strain.

State

cases

deaths

Case Mortality

case mortality rank

Population

Deaths per 100,000

Cases per 100,000

Michigan

55611

5334

9.59%

1

9,986,857

53.41

556.84

Connecticut

41288

3803

9.21%

2

3,565,287

106.67

1158.06

Virgin Islands

69

6

8.70%

3

104,901

5.72

65.78

New York

364965

29484

8.08%

4

19,453,561

151.56

1876.08

New Jersey

156628

11339

7.24%

5

8,882,190

127.66

1763.39

Pennsylvania

73557

5265

7.16%

6

12,801,989

41.13

574.57

Louisiana

38497

2723

7.07%

7

4,648,794

58.57

828.11

Massachusetts

93693

6473

6.91%

8

6,892,503

93.91

1359.35

Indiana

32437

2030

6.26%

9

6,732,219

30.15

481.82

Ohio

33439

2044

6.11%

10

11,689,100

17.49

286.07

Colorado

24754

1392

5.62%

11

5,758,736

24.17

429.85

Vermont

971

54

5.56%

12

623,989

8.65

155.61

Missouri

12798

688

5.38%

13

6,137,428

11.21

208.52

Washington

20181

1078

5.34%

14

7,614,893

14.16

265.02

DC

8406

445

5.29%

15

705,749

63.05

1191.08

Oklahoma

6229

322

5.17%

16

3,956,971

8.14

157.42

New Hampshire

4231

214

5.06%

17

1,359,711

15.74

311.17

Maryland

48423

2392

4.94%

18

6,045,680

39.57

800.95

Nevada

8113

396

4.88%

19

3,080,156

12.86

263.40

Arizona

17277

834

4.83%

20

7,278,717

11.46

237.36

Mississippi

14044

670

4.77%

21

2,976,149

22.51

471.88

Rhode Island

14353

655

4.56%

22

1,059,361

61.83

1354.87

New Mexico

7252

329

4.54%

23

2,096,829

15.69

345.86

Illinois

114306

5083

4.45%

24

12,671,821

40.11

902.05

Kentucky

9077

400

4.41%

25

4,467,673

8.95

203.17

Florida

52634

2319

4.41%

26

21,477,737

10.80

245.06

South Carolina

10623

466

4.39%

27

5,148,714

9.05

206.32

Georgia

44445

1908

4.29%

28

10,617,423

17.97

418.60

Minnesota

22464

942

4.19%

29

5,639,632

16.70

398.32

West Virginia

1899

74

3.90%

30

1,792,147

4.13

105.96

California

101032

3895

3.86%

31

39,512,223

9.86

255.70

Puerto Rico

3397

129

3.80%

32

3,193,694

4.04

106.37

Maine

2137

81

3.79%

33

1,344,212

6.03

158.98

Delaware

9096

344

3.78%

34

973,764

35.33

934.11

Alabama

15843

583

3.68%

35

4,903,185

11.89

323.12

Oregon

4038

148

3.67%

36

4,217,737

3.51

95.74

Montana

481

17

3.53%

37

1,068,778

1.59

45.00

North Carolina

24896

838

3.37%

38

10,488,084

7.99

237.37

Wisconsin

16462

539

3.27%

39

5,822,434

9.26

282.73

Virginia

40249

1281

3.18%

40

8,535,519

15.01

471.55

Idaho

2699

81

3.00%

41

1,787,065

4.53

151.03

Guam

170

5

2.94%

42

165,768

3.02

102.55

Grand Princess

103

3

2.91%

43

 

Texas

58537

1581

2.70%

44

28,995,881

5.45

201.88

Iowa

18360

493

2.69%

45

3,155,070

15.63

581.92

Hawaii

644

17

2.64%

46

1,415,872

1.20

45.48

Alaska

411

10

2.43%

47

731,545

1.37

56.18

North Dakota

2439

56

2.30%

48

762,062

7.35

320.05

Kansas

9270

212

2.29%

49

2,913,314

7.28

318.19

Arkansas

6277

120

1.91%

50

3,017,804

3.98

208.00

Tennessee

21288

353

1.66%

51

6,829,174

5.17

311.72

Wyoming

860

14

1.63%

52

578,759

2.42

148.59

Nebraska

12619

153

1.21%

53

1,934,408

7.91

652.34

Utah

8706

105

1.21%

54

3,205,958

3.28

271.56

South Dakota

4710

54

1.15%

55

884,659

6.10

532.41

Diamond Princess

49

0

0.00%

57

 

N Mariana

22

0

0.00%

57

56,882

0.00

38.68

Total

1697459

100274

5.91%

329,637,350

30.42

514.95

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