A Comparison of State Mortality Rates: Pennsylvania is 6th Highest, Michigan is Highest

In my last post I spoke of how Pennsylvania's case mortality rate (7.16%) was greater than the U.S. rate (5.91%).  At the time I was unsure how the state compared to the other states in the case mortality rate.  To do this I looked at the cases reported on Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard.  The numbers that they report for Pennsylvania (74,045 cases, 5,373 deaths) are different than reported by the state department of health (70,042 cases, 5,373 deaths).  This is due to Johns-Hopkins relying on media reports of cases as well as government reports.  Deaths from the disease are easier to track than cases.

The case mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of reported cases.  The numbers for each state as of yesterday are displayed at the table below.  Johns-Hopkins reports cases and deaths on the U.S. flagged Grand Princess and Diamond Princess cruise ships are included in the total.  Michigan has the highest case mortality rate at 9.59% followed by Connecticut at 9.21%, the U.S. Virgin Islands at 8.70%, New York at 8.08%, New Jersey at 7.24%, and Pennsylvania at 7.16%.  The high rate for Michigan is troubling given all of the protests against the coronavirus lockdown there.

Looking at the population adjusted mortality rate as deaths per 100,000 population, not surprisingly, New York has the highest rate at 151.56/100,000 followed by New Jersey at 127.66/100,000, Connecticut at 106.67/100,000, Massachusetts at 93.91/100,000, and the District of Columbia at 63.05/100,000.  Pennsylvania is 9th on this measure (41.13/100,000) and is right behind Michigan which is at 53.41/100,000.

New York is also first in coronavirus cases at 1,876.08/100,000 followed by New Jersey at 1763.39/100,000, Massachusetts at 1359.35/100,000, Rhode Island at 1354.87/100,000, and the District of Columbia at 1191.08/100,000.  Pennsylvania is 13th on this measure at 574.57/100,000 which is just ahead of Michigan which is at 556.84/100,000.  The U.S rate on this measure is 514.95/100,000.  

The graph above shows the state case mortality rate by population (the two cruise ships are excluded).  There is no linear association between the state's population and their case mortality rate.  The line crossing the graph just below 6% is the U.S. case mortality rate.  

The population rates indicate the prevalence in the population of coronavirus cases and deaths.  The case mortality rates are an indication of the strain that the disease has placed on the health care systems in that state.  Michigan Pennsylvania, and the Virgin Islands with low population adjusted mortality rates but high case mortality rates suggest additional strain.

State	cases	deaths	Case Mortality	case mortality rank	Population	Deaths per 100,000	Cases per 100,000
Michigan	55611	5334	9.59%	1	9,986,857	53.41	556.84
Connecticut	41288	3803	9.21%	2	3,565,287	106.67	1158.06
Virgin Islands	69	6	8.70%	3	104,901	5.72	65.78
New York	364965	29484	8.08%	4	19,453,561	151.56	1876.08
New Jersey	156628	11339	7.24%	5	8,882,190	127.66	1763.39
Pennsylvania	73557	5265	7.16%	6	12,801,989	41.13	574.57
Louisiana	38497	2723	7.07%	7	4,648,794	58.57	828.11
Massachusetts	93693	6473	6.91%	8	6,892,503	93.91	1359.35
Indiana	32437	2030	6.26%	9	6,732,219	30.15	481.82
Ohio	33439	2044	6.11%	10	11,689,100	17.49	286.07
Colorado	24754	1392	5.62%	11	5,758,736	24.17	429.85
Vermont	971	54	5.56%	12	623,989	8.65	155.61
Missouri	12798	688	5.38%	13	6,137,428	11.21	208.52
Washington	20181	1078	5.34%	14	7,614,893	14.16	265.02
DC	8406	445	5.29%	15	705,749	63.05	1191.08
Oklahoma	6229	322	5.17%	16	3,956,971	8.14	157.42
New Hampshire	4231	214	5.06%	17	1,359,711	15.74	311.17
Maryland	48423	2392	4.94%	18	6,045,680	39.57	800.95
Nevada	8113	396	4.88%	19	3,080,156	12.86	263.40
Arizona	17277	834	4.83%	20	7,278,717	11.46	237.36
Mississippi	14044	670	4.77%	21	2,976,149	22.51	471.88
Rhode Island	14353	655	4.56%	22	1,059,361	61.83	1354.87
New Mexico	7252	329	4.54%	23	2,096,829	15.69	345.86
Illinois	114306	5083	4.45%	24	12,671,821	40.11	902.05
Kentucky	9077	400	4.41%	25	4,467,673	8.95	203.17
Florida	52634	2319	4.41%	26	21,477,737	10.80	245.06
South Carolina	10623	466	4.39%	27	5,148,714	9.05	206.32
Georgia	44445	1908	4.29%	28	10,617,423	17.97	418.60
Minnesota	22464	942	4.19%	29	5,639,632	16.70	398.32
West Virginia	1899	74	3.90%	30	1,792,147	4.13	105.96
California	101032	3895	3.86%	31	39,512,223	9.86	255.70
Puerto Rico	3397	129	3.80%	32	3,193,694	4.04	106.37
Maine	2137	81	3.79%	33	1,344,212	6.03	158.98
Delaware	9096	344	3.78%	34	973,764	35.33	934.11
Alabama	15843	583	3.68%	35	4,903,185	11.89	323.12
Oregon	4038	148	3.67%	36	4,217,737	3.51	95.74
Montana	481	17	3.53%	37	1,068,778	1.59	45.00
North Carolina	24896	838	3.37%	38	10,488,084	7.99	237.37
Wisconsin	16462	539	3.27%	39	5,822,434	9.26	282.73
Virginia	40249	1281	3.18%	40	8,535,519	15.01	471.55
Idaho	2699	81	3.00%	41	1,787,065	4.53	151.03
Guam	170	5	2.94%	42	165,768	3.02	102.55
Grand Princess	103	3	2.91%	43
Texas	58537	1581	2.70%	44	28,995,881	5.45	201.88
Iowa	18360	493	2.69%	45	3,155,070	15.63	581.92
Hawaii	644	17	2.64%	46	1,415,872	1.20	45.48
Alaska	411	10	2.43%	47	731,545	1.37	56.18
North Dakota	2439	56	2.30%	48	762,062	7.35	320.05
Kansas	9270	212	2.29%	49	2,913,314	7.28	318.19
Arkansas	6277	120	1.91%	50	3,017,804	3.98	208.00
Tennessee	21288	353	1.66%	51	6,829,174	5.17	311.72
Wyoming	860	14	1.63%	52	578,759	2.42	148.59
Nebraska	12619	153	1.21%	53	1,934,408	7.91	652.34
Utah	8706	105	1.21%	54	3,205,958	3.28	271.56
South Dakota	4710	54	1.15%	55	884,659	6.10	532.41
Diamond Princess	49	0	0.00%	57
N Mariana	22	0	0.00%	57	56,882	0.00	38.68
Total	1697459	100274	5.91%		329,637,350	30.42	514.95

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