Last week I reported that my most viewed post on COVID-19 was on zip code testing in Johnstown zip codes compared to the county, state and the U.S. I reported that the testing rates for the zip code for downtown Johnstown (15901) was nearly identical to the U.S. rates while the rates for the other zip codes and the county lagged behind the state and the U.S. rates. I reposted the chart from that post above.
As I was tracking the testing rates I noticed that the pattern was changing in the testing rates. You can see that pattern in the bar chart above from the Google Sheets I put together for the county. The rate for 15901 is still the highest in the city but it is falling behind the U.S. rate. The 15902 zip code has been inching upwards while the 15909 zip code lags behind the others and the county.
I updated the line chart at the top of the post with the trend in testing up to the current date. I got rid of the data table to make it more readable. In the chart we see that the testing rate for 15901 started to fall behind the U.S. rate on May 29. The post for the chart at the top was on May 17.
The 15902 zip code (red dotted line) testing rate has nudged ahead of the state rate (solid black line. Finally we see that the 15909 zip code has fallen further behind the other zip codes and the state and county overall in the testing rates on May 26.
The number of COVID-19 cases in the county on May 17 was 54. Today (27 days later) it is 61. The 15902 zip code (Hornerstown and Moxham) now has a cluster of five confirmed cases and between 1 and 4 probable cases (the exact number is not released for privacy concerns) while 15901 has between 1 and 4 confirmed cases according to the PA Department of Health.
Does the lag in testing account for the decrease in the number of new cases for the county? I suppose only God knows for sure. The COVID cast website shows a decrease in the indicators that they use to forecast the future cases from may 17 to May 31. These indicators include doctor visits with COVID-19 symptoms, google search data, and Facebook search data. After May 31 the indicators has leveled off which suggests that a surge in cases is not imminent. Dr. Fauci has warned that a surge could happen as the states have been reopening. So far it has yet to materialize in Cambria County. Time will tell.