Monday, July 6, 2020

COVID-19 cases in Cambria County Have Far Outpaced the Rise in Testing



When I tell people about the recent upsurge in cases of Coronavirus in Cambria County I am often asked "is that because there is more testing?"  I have been looking at the trend in testing and cases in the county sine records have been available.  I was unable to track the number of cases from June 19 to June 24 due to problems with my computer.  I added the average number of tests per day as a proxy for this period.

The graph above shows the trend in cumulative cases (black line) where it rose steadily from March 22 to May 17 (57 days) to 54 total cases.  This gives an average of 0.95 new cases per day.  Over this period there were 2,538 tests performed as reported by the health department.  Dividing the number of tests by the 57 days of this period gives an average of 44.53 tests per day.  

From May 18 to June 25 (39 days) the curve flattened with ten total new cases (0.26 cases per day).  For this period, there were 4,500 total tests for an average of 115.38 tests per day

From June 26 to July 6 (11 days), there were 34 new cases (3.09 cases per day).  For this period, there were 1,502 total tests or 136.55 tests per day.  

Period

Number of Cases

Cases per day

% Change in Cases per day from Previous Period

Number of Tests

Tests per day

% Change in Tests per day from Previous Period

1: 3/22-5/17

(57 Days)

54

0.95

 

2,538

44.53

 

2: 5/18-6/25

(39 days)

10

0.26

-72.6%

4,500

115.38

159%

3:6/26-7/6

(11 days)

34

3.09

1,088%

1,502

136.55

18.3%


Thus the average number of tests has increased 159% from period 1 to period 2 but the number of cases per day decreased by 72.6% over the same period.  From period 2 to period 3, the average number of tests increased by 18.3% but the average number of cases per day rose by 1,088%.  Thus the rise in cases has far outpaced the rise in testing.  Wear a mask.

So far the number of deaths has not risen in the third period.  One of the deaths in the county was in the first period while the other two were in the second.  


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