Saturday, August 22, 2020

Testing Rates Have Decreased in Cambria County as Cases Keep Rising

One week ago, Cambria County surpassed 400 cases of COVID-19.  This can be seen in the graph above.  Since then the number of new cases has tapered off.

On August 11 the 7 day average for new cases in the county was 11.14 cases per day.  As of today, it is 7.29 cases per day.  The graph above shows that the positive testing rate has increased in the county while it has decreased or remained the same for the US and Pennsylvania.  

The graph above shows the trend in the cumulative cases (red line), the number of tests per day (blue bars), and the 7 day average of tests per day.  The decrease in the testing average occurred after August 5 when the number of cases passed 300 (with a brief spike on August 10).  That day there was an increase of 30 cases.  The increase was primarily at the federal prison in Loretto

I don't have a very good explanation for the decrease in testing after the outbreak at the prison.  Carnegie Mellon's COVID Cast website has indicators to predict future cases such as doctor visits, and survey's of symptoms on Facebook.  The graph at the left shows that the composite of indicators has remained relatively steady.  I hope that the decrease is just an aberration.

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