Friday, December 25, 2020

Testing and New Cases Declined in Cambria County While The Positive Test Rate Remains High


The graph above shows how the rise in cases appears to be levelling off in Cambria County since Donald Trump came here on October 13. The 7 day average for new cases reached a high of 214.29 on Dec 11 and has steadily decreased to 96.57 on Dec 25 (a 54.7% decrease) as can be seen in the solid black line in the graph below.


Also in the graph above we see that the 7 day average number of test results presented per day in the county (dotted red line in the graph) also decreased from 335 per day on Dec 11 and also decreased to 182 per day on Dec 25, a decrease of 45.7% over the same period.  This is a 9% smaller rate of decrease than that of cases in the county.


This graph above shows how the cumulative positive testing rates for the county (dotted blue line), Pennsylvania (red line), and the U.S. (yellow line).  The 7 day average for positive tests peaked at 68.29% on Dec 8 to 53.14% on Dec 25.  This is only a 22.2% decrease which is smaller than the decrease in cases and testing.  

On December 13 I posted on how the % of test results (46.8% today) for Greater Johnstown (zip codes 15901 thru 15909) was higher than the % of positive cases there (41.1% today).  This suggests that the cumulative testing rate for Johnstown is 31.48% while it is 35.74% for the rest of the county, a 13.53% increase outside of Johnstown.  The cumulative positive testing rate is 16.71% for Greater Johnstown while for the rest of the county it is 21.15%, a 26.54% increase.

While it is encouraging to watch the number of new positive cases decrease in Cambria County, the smaller decrease in the positive cases suggests that there may be more cases that are being missed, especially outside of Greater Johnstown.  The 7 day average for deaths in the county peaked at 8.14 per day on December 17 and decreased to 5 per day this Christmas day.  The peak in deaths came 6 days after the peak in cases in the county.  Lets hope the trend continues.  The Governor's order against dine in restaurant eating and gym us appears to be curtailing the rise in cases.  I wish I had better news this Christmas night.

**Update**



Dave Sutor of the Tribune Democrat has tweeted that Conemaugh Memorial hospital has rented refrigerator trailers to handle possible over crowding at the morgue.

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Sunday, December 20, 2020

In This Together Cambria Town Hall

  

I have written extensively on this blog about the coronavirus epidemic in the area The graphs below show how cases and deaths have risen exponentially in Cambria County.  The county now ranks second in Pennsylvania in the number of cumulative cases per 100,000, seventh in deaths per 100,000, sixth in hospitalizations, and fourth in persons on a ventilator.  


In response to the rise in cases and deaths the group In This Together Cambria was formed to inform the public and pressure community leaders to take this pandemic more seriously.  This Tuesday, Dec 22 at 7PM they will be having a virtual town hall.  Chip Minemyer of the Tribune Democrat (who lost his mother to COVID-19) will moderate.  The panelists are UPJ biology professor Jill D. Henning and UPJ communication professor Susan Wieczorek.  You may participate via zoom at  https://pitt.zoom.us/j/92952562170 (Meeting ID: 929 5256 2170) , or you can access it on the phone toll free at 1-877-853-5247.  


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