Thursday, March 4, 2021

What other Variables Contribute to Nursing Home Mortality in PA?

 

 

% of death in LTCF

Case Mortality in LTCF

Case Mortality in County

% over 66

% Rural

Median Household Income

% of death in LTCF

1.00

Case Mortality in LTCF

0.38

1.00

Case Mortality in County

0.02

0.26

1.00

% over 66

-0.19

-0.30

0.33

1.00

% Rural

-0.13

-0.21

0.11

0.62

1.00

Median Household Income

0.15

0.38

-0.12

-0.48

-0.49

1.00


Two weeks ago I looked at the correlation between the percentage of residents over the age of 66 in the county with the percentage of total county deaths in a nursing home and the case mortality rate in the nursing home.  This week I'm looking at the the additional variables of the % of the county in a rural area and the median household income in the county.  Of these, the relationship between case mortality and median income was the strongest accounting for 14.9% of the variability in the rates.


While this is a relatively weak (though significant) positive correlation there is a stronger correlation between that may moderate this relationship.  There a stronger relationship between % rural and % over the age of 66 of 0.62 (seen below).  Both of these have a relatively strong negative correlation of -0.49 and -0.48 with median household income respectively.    


The % over the age of 66 has a stronger positive correlation with the case mortality in the county (0.33) that it does with case mortality in a nursing home (LTCF) (-0.30 which is smaller in absolute value than 0.33).  This suggests that the elderly who live in more rural counties are more likely to die outside of a nursing home from corona virus.  The more rural and more elderly counties are also more likely to have lower incomes.

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5 comments:

  1. I want to make sure I am interpreting things correctly. Are you saying that being rural does not protect from coronavirus death for the elderly, and that their death rate was higher than if they'd been in a nursing home?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your question Dan. I'm saying that rural counties have a higher percentage of elderly residents. Next, the more rural and older counties have lower household incomes. Then, the counties with lower household incomes have higher overall case mortality rates but lower case mortality rates in nursing homes.

      Delete
    2. I should propose a path diagram to illustrate this.

      Delete
  2. I don't know why it says I'm "unknown" above, because I'm clearly logged in as Dan Warner!

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