Wednesday, November 10, 2021

The Seven Counties in PA that are Worse than Cambria in COVID Case Mortality

County

Cases

Deaths

Case Mortality %

Cases per death

Deaths per 100,000

Rank of Deaths per 100.000 in PA

% Fully Vaccinated

JUNIATA

3,009

120

3.99%

25.1

484.6

1

36%

SULLIVAN

607

24

3.95%

25.3

395.7

6

48%

WARREN

4,436

141

3.18%

31.5

359.8

10

41%

NORTHUMBERLAND

13,371

409

3.06%

32.7

450.2

3

51%

TIOGA

4,814

137

2.85%

35.1

337.5

14

39%

MIFFLIN

7,494

212

2.83%

35.3

459.5

2

43%

MONTOUR

2,599

73

2.81%

35.6

400.4

5

68%

CAMBRIA

20,420

535

2.62%

38.2

410.9

4

48%

PENNSYLVANIA

1,608,022

32,188

2.01%

50.0

251.4

 

51%

Last week I posted on Cambria County's high case mortality rate from COVID.  It has the eighth highest rate in the state.  The case mortality is an estimate of the probability of a person dying when they are diagnosed with the disease.  This week I thought that I would take a look at the seven counties with higher case mortality rates than Cambria.  You can find these states in the map below.



The table above shows the top 8 counties in case mortality from COVID. Juniata County has the worst rate in the state with the probability of dying is one out of 25.1 cases when diagnosed with the disease.  Close behind is Sullivan County with a probability of one in every 25.3 cases.  Cambria's is one in every 38.2 cases.  Pennsylvania's rate is one in every 50 cases.  All of the counties with rates higher than Cambria have populations less than 100,000.

Not surprisingly, the population adjusted mortality rates for each county are higher than the state rate of 251.4 deaths/100,000.  Except for Warren and Tioga, all of them are in the top 8 counties for this metric.  Looking at vaccination rates, 6 of the 8 counties have full vaccination rates lower than the state rate of 51%.  Montour County actually has the highest full vaccination rate in Pennsylvania at 68%.  

 
The rates in the above table are cumulative from the beginning of the pandemic in PA.  Case mortality can vary with time as cases and deaths fluctuate.  The dotted green line shows the 7 day case mortality rate which is the 7 day average for deaths divided by the 7 day average for cases.  A rise in cases precedes a rise in deaths which makes the case mortality decrease.  

Since the vaccine has been rolled out, the cumulative rates decreased from a high of 3.41% on Jan 21 in Cambria to 2.62% today.  Over the same period for Pennsylvania, it decreased from 2.55% to 2.01%.  In the U.S., the rate decreased from 1.67% to 1.62% during this period.  The 7 day case mortality is not a continuous line because there were periods in Cambria where there were no deaths.  

I have written on Montour and Sullivan Counties on this blog before.  In January, Montour had a high rate of vaccinations, hospitalizations and patients on a ventilator.  It still has high rates in these areas.  Sullivan County had one of the highest uninsured rates and the lowest median income in PA before the Affordable Care Act was passed.  

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