Monday, January 11, 2021

A Look at Vaccinations in Pennsylvania: Montour County has a high Vaccination and Hospitalization Rate


With the COVID-19 vaccine rollout the state now provides data for full and partial vaccinations at the county level.  I have looked at the rates of full vaccinations (the number of individuals who received both shots).  After adjusting the numbers for population, Montour County had by far the highest rate of full vaccinations at 2,710 per 100,000 followed by Crawford County at 1,253/100,000 and Union County at 653/100,000.  I looked at the correlations of the vaccination rates with the other rates in the statewide table that I put together for each of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania.  

The highest correlation rate was between the vaccination rate and the hospitalization rate at 0.875 (correlations are on a scale of -1 to +1) so I will focus on this correlation in this post.  The plot above shows the correlation with Montour County as an extreme outlier with a hospitalization rate of 1,020/100,000.  Union County was third in hospitalizations at 100/100,000.  Removing Montour County from the correlation analysis yields a coefficient of 0.263 which is still positive and statistically significant but considerably lower.  The scatterplot below shows the values for the remaining 66 counties.  

Earlier this year I posted on how Montour County was an outlier on the testing rate in the state.  Currently it ranks second in the testing rate at 57.32% behind Union County at 57.64%.  Montour County is also first in the state in the rate of cases on a ventilator at at 104/100,000.  By comparison the county with the second highest ventilator rate is Crawford County at 16.5/100,000.  Right now it seems that a high rate of hospitalizations and ventilator use is what is driving the allocation of vaccinations in the state.

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