Thursday, September 2, 2021

Jay Wiedwald's Graphs on "Johnstown" and "Halo" Counties and Coronavirus

 

A follower of my blog named Jay Wiedwald shared some graphs showing how the counties immediately surrounding Cambria have been adversely affected by corona virus.  Jay is a former resident of Johnstown who lived in Moxham.  He includes Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Indiana, and Somerset counties as Johnstown and the surrounding counties ad "Halo" counties.  



In the graph that he created above, he computed the excess death rates from coronavirus for the "Johnstown" Counties, the "Halo" Counties, and Pennsylvania overall.  Excess death rates compared death rates for last fall and winter to death rates from previous years on the same day.  It shows that the Johnstown Counties had higher death rates after the Trump rally on October 13 compared to PA and the "halo" counties.


The graph above also shows a steady increase in case mortality rates for Cambria County after the Trump rally indicated by the yellow dot.  These are changes in the cumulative rates since the beginning of the pandemic.  Currently Cambria's rate (2.89%) is 33% higher that Pennsylvania's and 77% higher than the U.S. case mortality rate.  Recently the rates for Cambria, PA and the U.S. have declined due to the number of cases rising faster than the number of deaths.  The decline for PA and the U.S. has been steeper than Cambria's.

The table below summarizes the "Johnstown" and "Halo" counties for COVID mortality as of this writing.  I only have date for the PA 'Halo' counties. The 'Johnstown' counties indeed do have higher case and population adjusted mortality than PA or the "Halo" counties.  The "Halo" counties have a slightly lower case mortality rate than PA (2.07% for halo vs. 2.17% for PA) but the population adjusted rate is slightly higher for PA (222.60 for halo vs. 221.15 for PA).  The "Johnstown" counties have a 28% higher case mortality rate (2.78% for 'Johnstown' vs. 2.17% for PA) a 33% higher population adjusted mortality rate 293.6 for 'Johnstown' vs. 221.25 for PA.

Thank you Jay for Bringing this to my attention.  

Johnstown Counties

Cases

Deaths

Case mortality

Population

Deaths/100000

Bedford

            5,045

              144

2.85%

           47,888

300.70

Blair

          14,126

              346

2.45%

121,829

284.00

Cambria

15,570

449

2.88%

130,192

344.88

Indiana

6,928

184

2.66%

84,073

218.86

Somerset

6,561

220

3.35%

73,447

299.54

Total 'Johnstown' Counties

48,230

1,343

2.78%

457,429

293.60

PA

1,308,284

28,325

2.17%

12,801,989

221.25

Halo Counties

Cases

Deaths

Case mortality

Population

Deaths/100000

Armstrong

6,434

151

2.35%

64,735

233.26

Centre

17,766

231

1.30%

162,385

142.25

Clearfield

9,264

166

1.79%

79,255

209.45

Fayette

14,231

335

2.35%

129,274

259.14

Franklin

16,925

381

2.25%

155,027

245.76

Fulton

1,513

18

1.19%

14,530

123.88

Huntingdon

5,502

137

2.49%

45,144

303.47

Jefferson

3,568

100

2.80%

43,425

230.28

Westmoreland

36,940

802

2.17%

348,899

229.87

Total ‘Halo’ Counties

112,143

2,321

2.07%

1,042,674

222.60

PA

1,308,284

28,325

2.17%

12,801,989

221.25

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