Showing posts with label 2018 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2018 Election. Show all posts

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Trump's GOP Opposition in Utah Gave Romney Some Backbone

Mitt Romney becoming the first Senator in the President's party to vote to convict on one of the charges in Trump's impeachment trial did raise some eyebrows.  It may not be as surprising given that he and Trump have butted heads.  However other Republicans who have butted heads, with Trump in the past, such as Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz, were fine with giving him a blank check for future abuses of power.  Could there be another explanation for Romney's not towing the line?

Utah has been one of the reddest states in the union for decades having not voted for a Democrat since 1964.  In 2012 Romney received 72% of the vote there over Barack Obama for President.  That was the highest percentage of the vote he received that year. He received 63% of the vote when he ran for the Senate there in 2018.  

The election numbers for the state look different in 2016 for Utah.  Ted Cruz won the GOP caucus there with 69% of the vote.  In the general election, Trump won the state with only 45% of the vote.  Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21% of the vote in the state while Hillary Clinton received 27.8% that year.  

This year, the support for Donald Trump in Utah is at 52% as of December 2019 while his disapproval is at 44%.  This gives him a +8% net approval rating.  At the same time, neighboring Wyoming is the state with the strongest net approval rating with +27% (62% approve and 35% disapprove).  

These numbers were not enough to persuade Utah's other Senator, Mike Lee, to vote to convict, but clearly they did not dissuade Romney from doing so.  It may still be a tall order to get the state to go blue this fall but it clearly has an independent streak with lukewarm support for Trump.  William Weld should spend a lot of time campaigning there.

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Friday, July 5, 2019

A look at the Freshman Democratic Congress, Gender, Ethnic Background and Healthcare Contributions

In my two previous posts I looked at Freshman Democratic Congressman their support for single payer or Medicare for All, and their ethnic background on how they effect campaign contributions from the healthcare industry.  I found that there nonwhite freshman who supported single payer received less money than white freshman who did.  I also looked at their gender and found no specific pattern.  For this post I will look at their gender and ethnic background to see if there was a difference in the healthcare campaign contributions that they received.



The graph above shows that nonwhite female freshman congress members overall and from the four healthcare sectors in Tarbell's dataset.  It shows that the most generous donors to freshman Democrats were healthcare professionals and that nonwhite female freshman consistently received less healthcare money.  According to the Analysis of Variance or ANOVA, hospitals gave more to white freshman ($15871) than nonwhite freshman ($7,985, p=0.031).  For total healthcare there was a significant interaction between gender and ethnicity (p=0.034) and a significant main effect for ethnicity (p=0.048) with nonwhite freshman receiving an average of $37,469 less.  The interaction was also present for health professionals (p=0.040) but not the other three sectors.  One would expect that more money from HMOs, Hospitals, and Pharma was given to freshman Republicans.

HMOs, Hospitals, and Pharma may have more rigid rules for donating than healthcare professionals who can give to anyone they want.  Nonwhite congressman may also represent districts with fewer healthcare professionals.  Also when donors are free to give as they choose their cultural biases may become more apparent.

Support SP
Nonwhite
White
#
%
#
%
No
7
37%
23
56%
Undecided
2
11%
8
20%
Yes
12
63%
10
24%
Total
21
100%
41
100%

Ethnicity and support for single payer are confounded with each other as the table below shows with nonwhite freshman being more likely to support it than white ones.  In my last post I showed that the interaction between support for single payer and  the freshman's ethnic background was present for donations from Health Professionals, HMOs and Hospitals. This indicates that support for Medicare for All and ethnicity is a stronger factor for healthcare donations than the gender of the freshman democrat.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Freshman Democratic Congressman and Medicare for All


The website Tarbell has published an analysis of the 62 freshman House Democrats looking at their support for Medicare for All and how much in campaign donations from the health care industry that they received.  The author, Danielle Keeton-Olsen, states that those members who publicly declared their support for Medicare for All or Single Payer received an average of $5,796 while those who opposed received $10,880.  She also states that "It’s hard to pull distinct conclusions because there are only a small number of candidates and a whole slew of factors that could influence a donor’s decision to give."  I beg to differ at least when it comes to support for Medicare for All.  I will look at the numbers by the race/ethnic background of the House freshman.

Support
Medicare for all
African 
American
Asian
Hispanic/
Latino
Native
American
White
No
4
2
1
0
23
Undecided
0
0
2
0
8
Yes
5
0
5
2
10
Total
9
2
8
2
41

Looking at the racial/ethnic backgrounds of these Representatives who support medicare for all I found the above Table showing that 23 white representatives or 56% of them  and 100% of Asian freshman oppose Medicare for All.  By Comparison, 55% of African American, 63% of Hispanic, and 100% of Native American reps support it.  These differences are statistically significant by Fisher's exact test (p=0.04064).

Support SP
Nonwhite
White
#
%
#
%
No
7
37%
23
56%
Undecided
2
11%
8
20%
Yes
12
63%
10
24%
Total
21
100%
41
100%

To look at the campaign contribution numbers for a statistical analysis of variance, I combined their numbers as white versus nonwhite.  Granted the numbers are unbalanced but I believe that something can be learned from these numbers.  The table above shows the numbers and percentages for each grouping.  Below is a bar chart showing the average contribution amount across four categories of donors: health Professionals, HMOs and health services, hospitals and nursing homes, and pharmaceutical and health products.


The above chart shows a sharp difference in the amount of money received by freshman representatives from the healthcare industry.  Nonwhite reps who support medicare for all received significantly less than white representatives who do.  The most famous of these is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who received a total of $16,375.  Undecided nonwhite representatives received slightly more money than whites in this category and the numbers were vitrually equal for freshman reps who do not support it.  The overall difference between white and nonwhite contributions was statistically significant (p=0.02) and the interaction between race and support for medicare for all was borderline significant (p=.07).

I wasn't really able to replicate her numbers from the data in the article.  I will be asking her about it.  In subsequent posts I will be looking at the different categories of donors to see what might be driving these discrepancies.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Is the Shutdown the Tipping Point for Trump?


Previously I reported on how Trump's approval ratings have remained remarkably consistent in the face of revelations of scandals and the separation of immigrant children from their families.  Since then Trump's Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of approval ratings took a brief dip from 43% to 40% in the events surrounding Sen. John McCain's funeral and Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort's convictions but a few weeks later rebounded to 44%.  

The latest change in his approval ratings has come after the government shutdown that Trump has started since Christmas time.  The RCP average has now dipped to 41% with his overall disapproval ratings rising to 55.5% as seen in the chart above.  Even Rasmussen, the polling firm that has been most kind to Trump has his approval rating at 43%.  According to Quinnipiac and CNN, Trump's approval ratings are over 80% among Republicans.  

I said before that the Republicans would have to abandon him in droves for him to be removed from office by impeachment.  67 votes in the Senate would be needed for that.  A 2% decrease is not droves.  It would have to be around 10% for it to be droves.  Back in August Trump's approval rating on the economy was 50.8% according to RCP.  Now it is at 49.4% with a 44.6 disapproval rating which is still considerably higher than his overall approval rating even with the pain caused by the shutdown.  Rasmussen's polls are not included in his approval rating on the economy.  


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Monday, November 19, 2018

Voter Turnout Reflects change in Voting Patterns in 2018 Cambria County (PA)

A report was released today by Keystone Crossroads showing how voter turnout increased from 43% in 2014 (the last midterm election) to 58% this year.  These numbers are for the percentage of registered voters who voted.  For my county, 50,184 voters out of 83,338 registrants voted for a turnout of 60.22%.  If one considers the total eligible voting age population of 107,485 (2017 estimate), the turnout rate was 46.7% which is still high for a midterm election.  The turnout for the 2016 election (63,072) was 58.2% in Cambria County by this measure (108,400 elegible voters in 2016).

Before the election I wrote about how voter registration patterns have changed since 2014 for Cambria and Somerset Counties.  The colors in the above map show how voter turnout changed since 2014 with counties having a larger increase having a darker color green.  Blair County having the largest increase in turnout of those registered.  The Keystone Crossroads article does not state what the 2014 numbers were for each county but it does state that there was an increase for each of the state's 67 counties.  

The lighter colors for Cambria and Somerset counties suggest that the increases for there were not as large as for other counties but does not say exactly by how much.  Looking at the county results, Sen. Casey and Gov. Wolf lost these counties while winning the state.  For Cambria County, Republicans picked up one state house seat while and almost won two while Democrats gained statewide.  The increases in voter registration for Republicans in Cambria County coupled with a lower increase in voter turnout suggest that there is a shift in voting patterns among voters there.  

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Losses in Registered Democrats have Accelerated Since 2016 for Cambria and Somerset Counties (PA)