My occupation is a statistician. I tell people it is like "CSI without dead bodies" because analyzing a set of data that has been collected is like doing an autopsy on a deceased person in the sense that I'm trying to learn what I can from what statistics and information are available. Except in this case the information does not involve gross things. For me the research process can be humorous, scary, but always captivating.
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
Where do We Stand in 2021?
Sunday, December 6, 2020
Mortality in Cambria County: Our Luck Has Run Out Thanks to Trump
I'm back to posting about the coronavirus. At the beginning of November, I posted on how mortality was surging in Blair and Westmoreland Counties which are to the west and east of Cambria County respectively. While deaths a still rising in those counties, Cambria County has eclipsed them both since Trump came here on October 13.
Before October 13 there were 7 total deaths in the county. On October 13 Trump came to the Johnstown area airport to campaign for his reelection. The red dot on the blue line in the chart shows the date of the rally.
As of this date, the cases have now risen to 103, a net increase of 96 deaths. Thirty five of these deaths have occurred in the last 3 days. The 7day average for new cases in the county was 15.43 new cases per day on October 13. Today's average was 186.86 per day.
The first reported deaths after the rally were on October 28th. The cumulative case mortality (the number of deaths has increased from 0.64% on the 28th to 1.80% today. This is an indication that deaths have risen faster than the cases. The graph shows that the case mortality rates for Pennsylvania and the US have decreased over the same period. The decrease was from 2.58% to 1.93% for the U.S. and from 4.34% to 2.70% for Pennsylvania. For the U.S. and the state, the number of deaths has not risen faster than the number of cases.
This graph from the state Department of Health's shows the increase in the number of cases hospitalized in the county. The large bend in the curve occurred on October 30 when there were 18 cases hospitalized and has increased exponentially ever since to 86 cases today.
The second graph above from the state Department of Health website shows the trend in the number of cases on a ventilator. Over the same period there were three cases on a ventilator on October 30. Today there are eight cases on a ventilator in the county.
Cases have likewise increased in the county in nursing homes (or long term care facilities), in the county jail and in the federal prison in Loretto, PA. There 97 cases in nursing homes on Oct. 30. Currently there are 643 in 28 facilities with 38 reported deaths or 37% of the total deaths. At the federal prison in Loretto, there were 8 active cases on Oct 30. Currently there are 189. I have no daily numbers at the county jail in Ebensburg.
Contact tracing is needed to definitively establish a link between the Trump rally and the rise in cases and deaths in Cambria County. However it is hard to disprove a link between the two events. A week after the election the county republican party chartered a bus to the million MAGA march in Washington DC. Just what we needed, another super spreader event where people can bring back the virus to their communities. It has been shown that counties that voted heavily for Trump have the worst virus surges.
**Update**
**Related Posts**
A Wave of Deaths in Blair County
Friday, November 20, 2020
The Kardashians of Cambria County
Ha ha ha! Made you look. There are no Kardashians in Cambria County that I know of. Do you?
I could make this post about how mortality in Cambria County from COVID-19 has been skyrocketing this month (25 deaths since October 28). However I thought I would comment on how I had to battle fluff in this county and what happens when what I post challenges the conventional wisdom.Eleven days ago I posted on how Joe Biden won the city of Johnstown by 80 votes. I thought I would share some of the comments that I received on Facebook on that post. The names are deleted out of respect.
"I can honestly believe that because the poll workers downtown were shady. They actually said who we were and what political party we were for."
"PA and Arizona have just pulled the win from Joe and Michigan is right behind . Joe is as of now down to 259 electoral vote and NO LONGER THE PROJECTED WINNER."
"Well seeing there is a lot of freeloaders in Johnstown I’m not surprised."
"Fake News."
"He won Philly by more than that . So what ?"
"Bozo Joe didn’t win Johnstown Trump took Cambria County."
"82 out of 74 democrats voted for Biden."
"There ain't no way."
"(Name deleted)...excuse you read something watch the waters the democrats or about to go down in history as the most corrupt party joe biden has just become a suspect of treason in another country so like I said watch the water"
"Prolly had under age or dead people lol."
"I would think that is another johnstown, not pa."
I wonder how many of them actually read my post?
Also about my book, the Johnstown Area Heritage Association has refused to sell my book. They said that because I discussed the statistics surrounding the abuse of children by Catholic Priests and crime statistics which include sexual assault that it was too explicit for children. I would argue that their holocaust exhibit is more explicit. I am waiting for an answer on whether the Johnstown National Flood Memorial will sell my book. The book has been selling at other places such as Classic Elements, Young Hearts Books and Toys, Chameleon Bookstore, Second Chapter Books in Ligonier and at Made in Somerset County. I will be having a book signing at AT Merchant on December 5 from noon to 3PM in the Galleria Mall in Johnstown. Finally you can read an Our Town article on my book here.
Monday, November 9, 2020
Joe Biden won Johnstown by 80 votes
Ward |
Biden |
Trump |
Other |
Diff |
Total |
|||
N |
% |
N |
% |
N |
% |
|||
Cambria City |
81 |
46.6% |
86 |
49.4% |
7 |
4.0% |
-5 |
174 |
Center Town |
230 |
58.2% |
159 |
40.3% |
6 |
1.5% |
71 |
395 |
18th ward |
140 |
39.1% |
207 |
57.8% |
11 |
3.1% |
-67 |
358 |
8th ward 1 |
172 |
48.9% |
173 |
49.1% |
7 |
2.0% |
-1 |
352 |
8th ward 3 |
353 |
41.2% |
485 |
56.7% |
18 |
2.1% |
-132 |
856 |
Kernville |
150 |
58.1% |
105 |
40.7% |
3 |
1.2% |
45 |
258 |
19th ward |
208 |
45.8% |
235 |
51.8% |
11 |
2.4% |
-27 |
454 |
Old Conemaugh |
250 |
53.8% |
208 |
44.7% |
7 |
1.5% |
42 |
465 |
Prospect |
161 |
78.9% |
42 |
20.6% |
1 |
0.5% |
119 |
204 |
7th ward |
348 |
60.1% |
224 |
38.7% |
7 |
1.2% |
124 |
579 |
21st ward |
110 |
37.2% |
183 |
61.8% |
3 |
1.0% |
-73 |
296 |
17th ward 1 |
232 |
57.1% |
169 |
41.6% |
5 |
1.2% |
63 |
406 |
17th ward 2 |
242 |
48.8% |
246 |
49.6% |
8 |
1.6% |
-4 |
496 |
17th ward 3 |
183 |
46.0% |
209 |
52.5% |
6 |
1.5% |
-26 |
398 |
17th ward 4 |
113 |
44.1% |
139 |
54.3% |
4 |
1.6% |
-26 |
256 |
20th ward 1 |
270 |
43.9% |
337 |
54.8% |
8 |
1.3% |
-67 |
615 |
20th Ward 2 |
259 |
54.0% |
215 |
44.8% |
6 |
1.3% |
44 |
480 |
Total |
3,502 |
49.7% |
3,422 |
48.6% |
118 |
1.7% |
80 |
7,042 |