Showing posts with label 2022 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2022 election. Show all posts

Friday, July 1, 2022

Post Roe Reversal and Cassidy Hutchinson Polls on Trump and the GOP

It has been a week since SCROTUS reversed their Roe vs. Wade decision on abortion and made other revolting decisions on guns, school prayer and the environment to name a few. It has also been about 5 days since former White House aide Cassady Hutchinson gave damning testimony on Trump's role in the Jan 6 attack on the capitol. While there is a paucity of polling during the 4th of July holiday, there is enough to draw some conclusions on election prospects in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 election.

Emerson has come out with a poll on the 2024 GOP nomination for President after the Roe decision and the Hutchinson. It shows Donald Trump in the driver's seat with 55% of the vote followed by Ron DeSantis with 20% and Mike Pence with 9%. A Politico/Morning Consult poll taken after the Roe decision but before the Hutchinson testimony found a similar result with 51% for Trump, 23% for DeSantis and 8% for Pence. The same Emerson poll also showed Trump ahead of Biden 44% to 39% if the election were held today. Both polling organizations used samples of registered voters rather then likely voters.

The above graph shows how Real Clear Politics Polling Average of Trump's favorability ratings have changed since he announced his run for President in 2015. His ratings did drop from 42.5% on Jan 6 to 37.2% on Jan 18. They have risen more or less steadily since then to a post presidency high of 45.8% on April 24 of this year. Since the hearings began and the Roe reversal happened his favorability ratings have declined by 2% to 43.8% as of June 29th, 3 days after Hutchinson's testimony.

Above is the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for the Generic Congressional vote. It shows that the Democrats had the advantage before November of last year and the GOP took over. Since then the GOPs advantage over the Dems peaked at 4.7% on April 29. It decreased to an advantage of 1.9% on May 29th. After the Jan 6th hearings began on June 10, the numbers for both parties declined with the gap between them increasing to only 2.8% on June 22. After the Roe reversal and Hutchinson's testimony, the gap between the parties shrunk to 2.2%.

The generic congressional vote is a crude measure of how the Congressional and Senate races will go. In 2020, the Democrats had a 6.8% advantage in the polling average but only received 3.1% more votes than the GOP. Of course gerrymandering can be a confounding variable. Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight gives the GOP an 87% chance of taking control of the House and a 53% chance of taking the Senate. They also predict that the leading Republican on the Jan 6 committee, Liz Cheyney, will lose to her primary challenger in August.


A new poll Generic Congressional Poll From Harvard has come out showing Democrats and Republicans tied at 50% each. This brings the Real Clear Politics average down to 2.0%. Trump's favorability rating in this poll is 42% bringing this RCP average down to 43.6%. This poll also shows Trump in the drivers seat for the 2024 nomination with 56% compared to DeSantis with 16% and Pence with 7%. Is this the start of a trend? Stay tuned.

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Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade

Saturday, May 21, 2022

2022 PA Primary Post Mortem

The 2022 Pennsylvania primary is almost in the books. State Sen. Doug Mastriano and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman won their respective primaries handily for Governor and U.S. Senator. Attorney General Josh Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic Nomination for Governor while Dr. Mehmet Oz and and David McCormick are separated by roughly 1,000 votes for the GOP nod for the U.S. Senate.

The graphic above for the Real Clear Politics polling average for the GOP Governors race shows that Mastriano's lead began on April 15 and the gap began to widen on May 4. His actual percentage of the vote was 44% which was 9.7% higher than his final RCP average of 34.5%. The other candidates performed fairly close to their polling averages which suggests that the undecided voters broke for Mastriano in the last days of the campaign. This is partially explained by Trump's last minute endorsement of Mastriano. Jake Corman and Melissa Hart dropping out of the race to endorse Barletta had no effect.

The Senate race in PA has received a lot more scrutiny than the governors race. McCormick received a bigger surge in the last days of the campaign. Oz's percentage of the vote was 4.4% higher than his polling average while McCormick's was 10.5% higher. Kathy Barnette performed almost exactly the same as her polling average. My cousin Casey Contres is biting his nails over this one with the upcoming recounts. Trump's endorsement of Oz did not carry the same weight in this race.

On a local note, State Rep Frank Burns defeated challenger Michael Cashaw 72% to 28%. There were no exit polls in this primary which makes it harder to determine what the voters were thinking. I also have yet to see head to head polling for the Democratic and the GOP candidates for statewide offices for the fall. One bright spot for progressives in PA is that Summer Lee has won her primary for congress in Pittsburgh despite a smear campaign from outside groups. 

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Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade

Much has been made of the leaked opinion written by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito overturning the Roe v. Wade decision. The SCOTUS (or more accurately SCROTUS) decision will be made official in late June. If it hadn't been leaked, demonstrations, like the one above, would be erupting in June instead of now.

If this decision remains in June, the battle over abortion rights moves to the states making the upcoming elections even more critical. Pennsylvania's senate race was already receiving national attention with Pat Toomey retiring and celebrities like Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman running to replace him. The battle over state offices (Governor, Senate, and House) should become more heated as well. 

This week, Franklin and Marshall College published a poll showing Dr. Oz with a 2% lead over David McCormick in the Republican primary for Senate. This difference is within the margin of error of 6.9% and and 39% of GOP voters are still undecided. This poll was conducted before the SCOTUS opinion was leaked. Only 4% of voters listed "Women's Rights: Pro-life/Pro-choice" as the most important issue for which candidate they will support in the GOP primary. Donald Trump's endorsement of J.D, Vance in the Ohio GOP Senate primary helped propel him to victory this week.

John Fetterman has a big lead in the same poll on the Democratic side with 53% of the vote over Conor Lamb with 14%. Among the Democrats, only 2% of the voters listed "Women's Rights: Pro-life/Pro-choice" as their important issue. I have a feeling these percentages have increased on both sides since the SCOTUS leak.

Among the GOP, Trump still has 70% of respondents saying that they have strongly of somewhat favorable views of him. On this metric, Dr. Oz has 29% favorability and McCormick has 31%. Likewise, Biden has 80% favorability ratings on the Democratic side. Fetterman has 77%, Conor Lamb has 46%, and Gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro (running unopposed) has 62%.

Of all survey respondents, 31% said that abortion should be legal in all circumstances, 54% said it should be legal under certain circumstances, and 14% said it should be illegal in all circumstances. Since June 2009, there was a 13% increase in those who said it should be legal in all circumstances while, over the same period, there was an 8% decrease in those who wanted it illegal in all circumstances. The generic ballot for US/state house races shows 43% favoring the GOP, 39% favoring Democrats and 18% undecided.

It remains to be seen how the SCOTUS decision will affect the race. There are infinite possibilities for what could happen between now and November. Certainly passions will be higher on both sides. Dr. Oz's campaign manager happens to be my cousin, Casey Contres.

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