The Pandemic's 5th Wave

There have been many news reports on Coronavirus surges in the U.S. recently, especially among the unvaccinated in the south.  The graph above shows that Cambria County is experiencing its 5th surge in COVID-19 cases.  The first surge was in the Spring of 2020.  The second was from late July to early August of last year.  The third was after Donald Trump's visits to the area (by Jr and Sr) from October to December and was by far the worst.  The fourth occurred from mid March to mid April of this year.  

 

We are now seeing a 5th surge following super-spreader events such as Thunder in the Valley.  The surge began on July 10 when there was a 7 day new case average of 0.71 cases per day to an average of 10.14 cases per day as of this writing.  The last death in the county was reported on July 1.  There have been 35 straight days with no new reported deaths since then.  The above graph shows that the number of cases hospitalized have decreased to a low of 3 on July 19 but has since risen to 12 as of this writing. As of yet there has been no corresponding increase in the number of cases on a ventilator.   

The graph at the left shows that a similar pattern is occurring in the state of Pennsylvania in the number of new cases.  The graph below shows that there has not yet been a corresponding increase in the number of deaths.  If the rise in the number of cases continues to accelerate, this luck will eventually run out. 

The vaccine rollout being given to the most vulnerable populations first makes it unlikely that the surge in cases and deaths will reach the awful levels seen last fall and winter. The slowing vaccination rate means that smaller surges can happen.  I have no information on how many new cases are due to the delta variant in the county.  The delta variant is not resistant to the vaccines.  The nightmare scenario is that a new variant could evolve that is resistant to the vaccines.  This would put us back to where we started with the pandemic.  Get the shots.

**Related Posts**

100 COVID-19 Deaths in Cambria County Since the Candlelight Vigil

COVID-19 Cases Have Risen in Cambria County but Deaths Have Not Due to Vaccinations (so far)

Mortality in Cambria County: Our Luck Has Run Out Thanks to Trump

Higher COVID-19 Case Rates Outside of Johnstown: Even When Excluding Prisons

Coronavirus cases have slowed over the 4th of July holiday so I thought I would take a look at how they are now distributed throughout Cambria County.  This is what the distribution of cases in the county looked like in the image below on Dec 13 when the rise in cases and deaths was at its height.

Below the image at the right is the image from the PA Dept of Health website from today.  There, we see some darker colors in the central part of the Cambria County.  (I wish blogger would let me put the images side by side.)  The graph at the top shows the testing, positivity and case rates for each of the zip codes in Johnstown (15901-15909), Ebensburg (where the county jail is located), Loretto (where a federal prison is located), the county as a whole and the state.  

In the graph, there is a high positivity and case rate for the 15940 zip code (Loretto) while the testing rate is not especially high there.  A Federal Correctional Institution is located there called FCI Loretto as well as St. Francis University.  Only active cases are reported by the federal department of corrections on their website.  FCI Loretto reached its height in active cases on December 12.

Area	Testing Rate	Positive rate	cases/100000	% change pos	% Change in cases
Total Johnstown	42.86%	21.24%	9104.45	-19%	-33.46%
Outside Johnstown	52.21%	26.21%	13682.95	-1%	-6.88%
Outside Johnstown & Ebensburg	51.63%	26.43%	14693.59	7%	14.49%
Outside Johnstown, Ebensburg, & Loretto	51.82%	24.77%	12833.79
Cambria Total	47.54%	23.97%	11393.17

In the table above, I compared the rates of infection and the positivity rates for the city of Johnstown (zip codes 15901-15909) to the rest of the county, the rest of the county outside of Ebensburg and Johnstown, the rest of the county outside of Ebensburg, Johnstown, and Loretto, and Cambria County as a whole.  We see that the rates for Johnstown are 23% lower than the rest of the county for the positivity rate and likewise we see a 50% difference in the population adjusted case rates.  When we exclude Ebensburg and Johnstown from the county totals we we an additional 1% increase in the positivity rate and a 7% increase in the case rate.  When we exclude Ebensburg, Johnstown, and Loretto from the county totals, we see a 6% decrease in the positive rate and a 13% decrease in the case rate.  The case rate in the area outside of Johnstown, Ebensburg and Loretto is still 13% higher than the overall county rate.  The positivity rate is 3% higher for for this area compared to the rest of the county.

The testing rates for the three partitions of Cambria County are higher than the Johnstown rate.  Does this mean that there needs to be more testing inside of the six zip codes that make up Johnstown?  More testing is usually done when someone presents with symptoms.  I do not have vaccination or mortality data at the zip code level so some questions I cannot answer.

Hopefully on a lighter note, I remind you all that I will be having a discussion of my book at Classic Elements this Saturday at 1PM.  You are all welcome.  They are located at 314 Main St. in Johnstown, PA 15901.

**Related Posts**

Testing Rates are Higher in Downtown Johnstown but There Are More Cases of COVID-19 in the Rest of Cambria County

My interview on Laurel Highlands Now, Trump Visits to Johnstown, and Changes in COVID-19 cases.

A Look at Positive COVID-19 Testing Rates in Cambria, PA, and the US

100 COVID-19 Deaths in Cambria County Since the Candlelight Vigil

I couldn't stay away from the Coronavirus pandemic in the area for long.  On January 19, In This Together: Cambria County held a candlelight vigil next to the Stone Bridge in Johnstown in honor of the 340 who died from the virus since the pandemic began here on March 23.  There was one candle for each of the deceased.  As of today, June 25, the death toll in the county reached 440, an increase of 100.  

The graph below shows the trend in deaths in the county since the first case was reported.  The first death occurred on April 7 of 2020.  Since the awful months of November through January, the number of deaths has decreased but have not ceased.  The 7 day average has hovered between 0.14 per day and 1 per day since April 8.  April 8 was the last day the 7 day death rate reached zero.

 

This is not to say that there are no encouraging signs of progress in the battle against the virus.  The 7 day average for new cases (2.29/day) is now at its lowest level since Sept 17 of last year (2.14/day).  Likewise, the number of patients on a ventilator (1) in the county is at its lowest level since November 7.  

The graph above shows that the new cases have decreased while the vaccination rates have increased, there are still areas of concern.  Vaccination rates have slowed from 891.1 full vaccinations per day on April 17th to 148.4 per day today.  Currently, 41.25% of the county is fully vaccinated. 40.3% of vaccine eligible Caucasians are fully vaccinated in the county while 18.4% of African Americans are.

With Thunder in the Valley coming to town there is the potential for another super spreader event like the Trump rallies last fall.  The more people at the rally who are vaccinated the less likely this event is to occur.  Highlands Health is offering free vaccinations at the rally but even if they are receiving the second shot the vaccine can take three weeks to take effect.  It will take a few weeks after the rally to see if there is an increase in cases which could fuel an increase in deaths.

**Related Posts**

Our Webinar on the Corona Virus Numbers in Cambria County

Some Clues for Racial Disparities for Cambria County

African Americans Still Lag Behind in Life Expectancy in Cambria County

COVID-19 Cases Have Risen in Cambria County but Deaths Have Not Due to Vaccinations (so far)

The second installment of We Are All In This Together: Pandemic-Johnstown 1918 has come out and can be seen above.  Recently there has been a rise in cases as spring has sprung.  Since the terrible months of December and January, the 7 day average for new cases fell from 214.29 on Dec 11 to 14.29 on March 20.  Since then, the 7 day average has risen to a high of 58.43 on April 19 to 49.29 today as can be seen in the graph below.  This rise has occurred after the vaccine rollout began on Jan 8.

Since the cases have risen, the deaths in the county have remained fairly stable as can be seen in the above graph.  The 7 day average for deaths reached a high of 8.14 deaths per day on Dec 17 (6 days after the spike in cases).  Since March 16, the average has not risen above 1 death per day.  

The graph above shows the trend in the 7 day average for new cases (black line), testing (red dotted line) and full vaccinations (orange line).  The lines for testing and vaccinations are on a logarithmic scale.  The number of full vaccinations per day has fallen from a high of 855.4 on April 14 to 399.9 today.  On April 13 all Pennsylvanian's over age 16 became eligible to receive the vaccine.  To date 40,920 of 31.43% in Cambria County have been fully vaccinated.

This graph from the state department of health shows that the majority of cases are between the ages of 20 and 59 throughout the state.  This information is not available at the county level.

This final graph shows that the vast majority of deaths in PA have been between ages 60 and 99.  The early phases of the vaccine rollout have focused on groups most vulnerable such as the elderly.  The vaccinations seem to be curtailing the number of deaths even though there has been a rise in cases.  The younger age groups still need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus.  

**Related Posts**

Mortality in Cambria County: Our Luck Has Run Out Thanks to Trump

The Number of Corona Virus Cases in Cambria County has Grown Exponentially While Health Behaviors Predict Cases in PA

One Year of Corona Virus in Cambria County

Some Clues for Racial Disparities for Cambria County

Last week I posted on the racial disparities in health outcomes in Cambria County.  These disparities are primarily what is driving the low rankings for the county in the County Health Rankings.

County Health Rankings provides a wealth of statistics called health factors which provide clues to these disparities.  Here is a list:

• 9% of the live births in the county from 2013-2019 are low birthweight which is 1% higher then the state rate. 16% of African American births are low birthweight compared to 12% of Hispanic and 6% of Caucasian births. in the county
• The teen birth rate is 20 per 1,000 live births from 2013-2019 compared to 17/1,000 for PA.  For African Americans it is 54/1,000, 19/1,000 for Hispanics, and 18/1,000 in the county.
  
• The drug overdose death rate from 2017-2019 was 52 per 100,000 for the county.  For Pennsylvania it is 37/100,000.  For African-Americans the rate was 112/100,000  and for Caucasians it was 50/100,000.  According to the website Overdose free PA, there were 18 overdose deaths among African Americans (orange bar in the above graph) in the county from 2017-2019 out of 204 total overdose deaths or 8% of the total.

• The rate of preventable hospital stays per 100,000 Medicare enrollees for 2018 is 5,762 in the county compared 4464 for PA.  The African American Rate is 6,154 while it is 5,779 for Caucasians in the county.
  
• The rate of mammography screening is 42% for the county for Medicare enrollees for 2018 while it is 45% for the county.  For African Americans it is 31% compared to 38% for Asians, 50% for Hispanics, and 42% of Caucasians in the county.
• The rate of flu vaccinations is 41% overall for the county for Medicare enrollees in 2018 compared to 53% for PA.  For African Americans the rate was 36% in the county while it was 45% for Asians and Hispanics and 41% for Caucasians.
• The overall rate of child poverty was 23% for the county for 2019 while it was 17% for PA.  For African Americans it was 67% in the county while it was 19% for Asians, 42% for Hispanics, and 20% for Caucasians.
• Median income in the county was $48,800 for 2019 while it was $63,500 in PA.  For African Americans it was 18,900 in the county while for Asians it was $90,000, for Hispanics it was $35,100, and for Caucasians it was $48,100.
• The injury death rate was 128 per 100,000 for the county from 2015-2019 while it was 89/100,000 for PA.  For African-Americans it was 221/100,000 and 126/100,000 for Caucasians in the county.
• The homicide death rate was 6/100,000 for the county from 2013-2019 while it was 5/100,000 from 2013-2019.  For African Americans it was 50/100,000 while it was 4/100,000 for Caucasians in the county.
• For firearm fatalities the rate was 16/100,000 from 2015-2019 while it was 12/100,000 for PA.  For African Americans it was 41/100,000 and 15/100,000 for Caucasians in the county.
• For reading scores, the average grade level was 3.1 for 3rd graders in both the County and PA in 2018.  For African Americans it was at a 2.2 grade level and 3.2 for Caucasians in the county.
• For math scores, the average grade level for 3rd graders was 3.1 for both the county and PA in 2018.  For African Americans it was at a 2.0 grade level and 3.2 for Caucasians in the county
• Finally the % of residents who drive alone to work for the county was 82% from 2015-2019 while it was 76% for PA.  For African Americans, 62% drives alone to work in the county while it was 65% for Hispanics and 84% for Caucasians.  This could be due to African Americans and Hispanics being more likely to rely on public transportation to get to work.

These 14 statistics provide some clues to the nature of the racial/ethnic disparities in Cambria County.  They suggest violence and poverty as the main explanatory factors.  One must be careful not to assume that they tell the whole story.  They do provide some clues to where public health resources need to be allocated.  It remains to be seen how the Coronavirus pandemic will interact with these health issues.

**Related Posts**

The 2021 County Health Rankings are Out

County Health Rankings and Corona Virus Cases: Lower ranked counties have fewer cases in PA (except for Philly)

Holiday Poverty Estimates for Johnstown and Cambria County

African Americans Still Lag Behind in Life Expectancy in Cambria County

Group	Cambria County	Pennsylvania	U.S.
Overall	76.1	78.4	78.7
Caucasian	76.4	78.9*	78.6
African American	67.3	73.4*	74.7
Hispanic	91.3	85.3*	81.8

*Pennsylvania life expectancy by race numbers are from 2010 (Measure of America, 2013) 

In my book, Wuthering Depths in Johnstown: By the Numbers.  I wrote extensively on the 2020 County Health Rankings for Cambria County (where Johnstown is located).  The number that jumped out at me most was racial disparities in mortality data in Cambria county where African Americans had a life expectancy of 65.6 years, Caucasians 76.2 years, and Hispanics 89.0 years.  

This year's life expectancy numbers from the 2021 County Health Rankings are displayed above in the table above for the years 2017-2019 (corona virus deaths are not included).  Cambria County's overall life expectancy increased from 75.6 to 76.1 years (63rd in PA).  Among counties with life expectancies by race, African American life expectancy increased by 1.7 years to 67.3 (the lowest in PA).  Caucasians increased by 0.2 years to 76.4 (3rd lowest ).  Hispanics increased the most by 2.3 years to 91.3 (5th highest in the state).  

Counties with miniscule racial/ethnic minority populations do not have a breakdown for life expectancy by race.  African Americans comprise 3.5% (10.9% of PA) of the county and Hispanics make up 1.8% (7.8% of PA).  Caucasians comprise 92.6% of the county (75.7% of the state).  Approximately 59% of the African Americans in the county live inside the city of Johnstown

Overall the county is 2.6 years behind the US life expectancy.  Caucasians are 2.2 years behind, African Americans are 7.4 years behind, and Hispanics are 9.5 years ahead of the US rate.  Life expectancy is not included in the overall County Health Rankings for Health Outcomes.  Mortality Measured as Years of Potential Life Lost is factored into the rankings which is a measure related to life expectancy.

Years of potential life lost (YPLL) is the number of years lost if someone dies before age 75.  For example, if someone dies at age 25, they have 50 years for potential life lost.  The overall YPLL rate is 9,700 years per 100,000 for the county.  It is 19,900 years per 100,000 for African Americans and 9,400 years per 100,000 for Caucasians.  

The premature age adjusted death rate for the county is the number of deaths under age 75 per 100,000 for the years 2017-2019.  For Cambria it is 440 deaths/100,000.  For African Americans it is 840 deaths/100,000 and for Caucasians it is 430 deaths/100,000.  For Pennsylvania, the overall rate is 350 deaths/100,000.  This measure is provided by County Health Rankings but not factored into the rankings.

The most shocking mortality rate is the child mortality rate which is the number of deaths under the age of 18 per 100,000 for the years 2016-2019.  For Cambria the rate is 50 deaths/100,000 which is the same as PA's rate.  For African Americans in the county, it is 210 deaths/100,000 (the highest in PA) while for Caucasians it is 40 deaths/100,000.  The rate is more than 5 times higher for African Americans. 

The health factors data for the county provides some clues for this discrepancy.  I will discus it in my next post.

**Related Posts**

Why do African Americans live to be 64.8 years in Cambria County?

Why do African Americans live to be 64.8 years in Cambria County? Not drug overdoses.

"Wuthering Depths in Johnstown: By the Numbers" Is Now Out and the PPF Medicaid March.

The 2021 County Health Rankings are Out

 

The 2021 County Health Rankings are now out for every county in the US.  The rankings use more than 60 government statistics to assess the overall health of each county.  Above is a video description of their model.  They have two overall rankings for the state: Health Outcomes (mortality and quality of life data) and Health Factors (things that contribute to the health outcomes).

The maps above show the rankings for each county in Pennsylvania.  The darker green counties have lower health outcomes rankings while the counties with darker color blue have lower health factors ranking in the map on the right.  Cambria County ranks 62nd in health outcomes (up 2 spots from last year which is not cause for celebration) and 47th on health factors which is down 3 spots since last year.

For me the overall rankings are not as interesting as the underlying statistics used to determine them.  Two individuals can have the exact some IQ score but one can have a high verbal aptitude while another can have an equally high math ability. The graph below shows the trend in mortality data (measured as years of potential life lost or YPLL).

In my book, I went in depth into the rankings to explain why last year's rankings were so low.  It was mostly racial disparities in life expectancy in the county.  In the next few posts I will go in depth into this years numbers.  Corona virus numbers are not yet factored into the rankings as 2019 is the most recent year for mortality data.  The graph above shows that Cambria's rate, though decreasing, is still higher than the state and U.S. rates. 

**Related Posts**

The graph above shows that Cambria's rate, though decreasing, is still higher than the state and U.S. rates. 

COVID-19 and County Health Rankings in PA: Which Variables Predict Cases and Deaths

The Number of Corona Virus Cases in Cambria County has Grown Exponentially While Health Behaviors Predict Cases in PA

One Year of Corona Virus in Cambria County

March 23 will be the one year anniversary of the first case of coronavirus in Cambria County.  The graph above shows the trend in cases and vaccinations over the past year.  The graph below shows the trend in deaths.  The first death was reported on April 7.  The county now (as of this writing) has 12,059 cases, 402 deaths, and 19,664 full vaccinations.  As I update the numbers on Google sheets, the numbers on the graphs in this post will be updated.

I have been tracking the number of cases and deaths almost every day over the past year.  It has been a labor of love keeping track of the pandemic here.  The feedback has been mostly positive to this effort.  As more publicly available data has been released over the year, the effort has taken more and more of my time every day.  In addition to the daily posting of numbers, I have written 34 out of 47 posts on corona virus on this blog.  The more insights that I can provide for the public to guide decision making the better.

In This Together Cambria is putting together a slideshow showing the resilience of the area to the past years challenges.  Submissions are due by March 26.  One story I can add is the passing of Rosie Caeti, an old family friend who passed away last on March 13 from complications from Corona Virus at 87.  She used to babysit my dad when he was young.

Soon, the county health rankings for every county in the US will be released for 2021.  I do not yet know how or if coronavirus deaths will factor into the rankings.  

**Related Posts**

Our Webinar on the Corona Virus Numbers in Cambria County

County Health Rankings and Corona Virus Cases: Lower ranked counties have fewer cases in PA (except for Philly)

My interview on Laurel Highlands Now, Trump Visits to Johnstown, and Changes in COVID-19 cases.

Our Webinar on the Corona Virus Numbers in Cambria County

Last Tuesday I was a panelist on a webinar explaining the coronavirus numbers in Cambria County.  Other panelists were Jill Henning, Biology Professor at Pitt-Johnstown and Tulsi Shrivastava, a local data scientist.  You can view the slides for the presentation below.  It lasts for 40 minutes.  As of that panel, the county ranked 7th in the state in cases per 100,000, 8th in case mortality (# of deaths/# of deaths), 10th in testing rate, 15th in hospitalizations, 4th in deaths/100,000, 4th in patients on a ventilator/100,000, and 8th in full vaccinations/100,000.

 

Since then the numbers have changed.  The county now ranks 8th in the state in cases/100,000 at 8,346.  It still ranks 8th in the state in cases mortality at 3.37%.  It now ranks 11th in the state in testing at 38.17%, 10th in the state in hospitalizations at 32.26/100,000, 5th in deaths at 281.12/100,000, 5th in patients on a ventilator at 5.38/100,000, and 11th in full vaccinations at 2,290/100,000.  Recent numbers have been encouraging but we can't let our guard down.

On of the sponsors on the webinar was the Tribune Democrat.  Chip Minemyer, their editor moderated the panel.  The post of the Tribune-Democrat's article received 13 likes and 10 haha's.  Here is a smattering of comments it received on Facebook. 

"it all depends on how the numbers are collected. I have come to the conclusion that it's best not to believe stats."  (liked by 3)

"More propaganda from this site. Terrible." Liked by 5, laughed at by 1, and wowed by 1.

"And if you want it changed to the actual cause do you have to go to court to get it changed?" liked by 1.

"I’ve not seen cycle threshold values reported anywhere. Are those available with local Covid tests?" Liked by none.

"Depends on who inputs the numbers." liked by 2.

"Lol the numbers are wrong, What makes them a expert at a new virus? These people are part of the problem! I know a few people who past with in the past few months and none of them had covid but they mark their death as covid..."  Liked by 5, laughed at by 4, wowed by one.

"like you can trust the trib......lol......" Laughed at by one.

"Numbers do lie when a person with an agenda is on the other end.

Like the crooks in Tom Wolfs administration." Liked by 3, laughed at by one.

 "Why does the The Tribune-Democrat print letters advocating the murder of 74 million people?"

 Laughed at by one.

"As a native of the area, I'm pleased that the Tribune Democrat is still a real newspaper. Bravo!" Liked by 6 laughed at by 3.

"Sounds great if the numbers were 100% accurate" liked by none

" Unless the the people responsible for entering data are compromised" Liked by 4.

Some people may think me sadistic for even looking at these comments  but it does give clues to the thinking of those who In This Together Needs to reach.  I'd love to know how many of them actually read the article.

**Related Posts**

An Online discussion of Coronavirus Numbers in Cambria County

The Kardashians of Cambria County

What is Sanity?