Showing posts with label Campaign Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Campaign Finance. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

The 'Squad', Trump's Tweet, and Healthcare Campaign Contributions


My last three posts have looked at healthcare campaign donations to freshman democratic members of congress, their ethnic/gender background, and support for medicare for all.  They showed that nonwhite members who support Medicare for All received far less in donations than non white freshman who did not and white freshmen who either did or did not support it. Four of the freshmen, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, and Rashida Tlaib, have received press for butting heads with Nancy Pelosi and being targeted by Donald Trump in a tweet where he said that they should go back to the "crime infested" countries from which they came.  All four support Medicare for All.








These four congresswomen were included in the data for the analysis.  You can see all of the donations that they received as compiled by Danielle Keeton Olsen at Tarbell here and in the images above.  The first three of the 'squad' were classified as nonwhite according to the US Government's affirmative definition of race/ethnicity in the analysis.  I determined the ethnicity of each freshman democrat based on their Wikipedia page.  The data is listed here.

Congresswoman Tlaib (D-MI) was classified as white by the affirmative action definition.  Whites or Caucasians are defined as "people having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa."  She was also the largest recipient of healthcare campaign dollars among the 'squad' at $172,665.  This is more than the other three squad members combined at $158,903.  This pattern is present in health professionals, hospitals, and pharma but not in HMOs where she received less ($5,019) than the other three combined ($12,841).  

Congreswoman Tlaib may see herself as nonwhite while most donors see her as white.  Her ethnic background in Palestinian who have been oppressed for decades by Israel in the middle east.  I personally see Italians as Latino even though no one else does.

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Friday, July 5, 2019

A look at the Freshman Democratic Congress, Gender, Ethnic Background and Healthcare Contributions

In my two previous posts I looked at Freshman Democratic Congressman their support for single payer or Medicare for All, and their ethnic background on how they effect campaign contributions from the healthcare industry.  I found that there nonwhite freshman who supported single payer received less money than white freshman who did.  I also looked at their gender and found no specific pattern.  For this post I will look at their gender and ethnic background to see if there was a difference in the healthcare campaign contributions that they received.



The graph above shows that nonwhite female freshman congress members overall and from the four healthcare sectors in Tarbell's dataset.  It shows that the most generous donors to freshman Democrats were healthcare professionals and that nonwhite female freshman consistently received less healthcare money.  According to the Analysis of Variance or ANOVA, hospitals gave more to white freshman ($15871) than nonwhite freshman ($7,985, p=0.031).  For total healthcare there was a significant interaction between gender and ethnicity (p=0.034) and a significant main effect for ethnicity (p=0.048) with nonwhite freshman receiving an average of $37,469 less.  The interaction was also present for health professionals (p=0.040) but not the other three sectors.  One would expect that more money from HMOs, Hospitals, and Pharma was given to freshman Republicans.

HMOs, Hospitals, and Pharma may have more rigid rules for donating than healthcare professionals who can give to anyone they want.  Nonwhite congressman may also represent districts with fewer healthcare professionals.  Also when donors are free to give as they choose their cultural biases may become more apparent.

Support SP
Nonwhite
White
#
%
#
%
No
7
37%
23
56%
Undecided
2
11%
8
20%
Yes
12
63%
10
24%
Total
21
100%
41
100%

Ethnicity and support for single payer are confounded with each other as the table below shows with nonwhite freshman being more likely to support it than white ones.  In my last post I showed that the interaction between support for single payer and  the freshman's ethnic background was present for donations from Health Professionals, HMOs and Hospitals. This indicates that support for Medicare for All and ethnicity is a stronger factor for healthcare donations than the gender of the freshman democrat.

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Educational Attainment and the % Uninsured Explain Trump's % of the Vote with Philly Considered


Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Freshman Democratic Congressman and Medicare for All


The website Tarbell has published an analysis of the 62 freshman House Democrats looking at their support for Medicare for All and how much in campaign donations from the health care industry that they received.  The author, Danielle Keeton-Olsen, states that those members who publicly declared their support for Medicare for All or Single Payer received an average of $5,796 while those who opposed received $10,880.  She also states that "It’s hard to pull distinct conclusions because there are only a small number of candidates and a whole slew of factors that could influence a donor’s decision to give."  I beg to differ at least when it comes to support for Medicare for All.  I will look at the numbers by the race/ethnic background of the House freshman.

Support
Medicare for all
African 
American
Asian
Hispanic/
Latino
Native
American
White
No
4
2
1
0
23
Undecided
0
0
2
0
8
Yes
5
0
5
2
10
Total
9
2
8
2
41

Looking at the racial/ethnic backgrounds of these Representatives who support medicare for all I found the above Table showing that 23 white representatives or 56% of them  and 100% of Asian freshman oppose Medicare for All.  By Comparison, 55% of African American, 63% of Hispanic, and 100% of Native American reps support it.  These differences are statistically significant by Fisher's exact test (p=0.04064).

Support SP
Nonwhite
White
#
%
#
%
No
7
37%
23
56%
Undecided
2
11%
8
20%
Yes
12
63%
10
24%
Total
21
100%
41
100%

To look at the campaign contribution numbers for a statistical analysis of variance, I combined their numbers as white versus nonwhite.  Granted the numbers are unbalanced but I believe that something can be learned from these numbers.  The table above shows the numbers and percentages for each grouping.  Below is a bar chart showing the average contribution amount across four categories of donors: health Professionals, HMOs and health services, hospitals and nursing homes, and pharmaceutical and health products.


The above chart shows a sharp difference in the amount of money received by freshman representatives from the healthcare industry.  Nonwhite reps who support medicare for all received significantly less than white representatives who do.  The most famous of these is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who received a total of $16,375.  Undecided nonwhite representatives received slightly more money than whites in this category and the numbers were vitrually equal for freshman reps who do not support it.  The overall difference between white and nonwhite contributions was statistically significant (p=0.02) and the interaction between race and support for medicare for all was borderline significant (p=.07).

I wasn't really able to replicate her numbers from the data in the article.  I will be asking her about it.  In subsequent posts I will be looking at the different categories of donors to see what might be driving these discrepancies.

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Friday, April 29, 2016

Divergent Movements in PA Primary in Cambria County for Bernie and Trump

2016 Election Map for PA Democratic Primary
The headlines from this year's Pennsylvania Primary were that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have all but clinched the nomination of their respective parties for President with their wins on April 26.  Clinton won Pennsylvania with 55% of the vote while Trump won with 57% carrying all 67 counties.  In every election with millions of participants there are millions of stories that don't get reported.  

The county map above shows that Sanders won 31 out of 67 counties.  The results were close in many counties.  Bedford County was the closest in the state with Clinton beating Sanders by 5 votes.  Many counties were decided by a few hundred votes.  The outcome in some counties may change when absentee ballots are included.  Philadelphia County had the biggest margin for Clinton with 63% of the vote.  Columbia County was largest for Sanders with 58% of the vote. 

In Cambria County where I was organizing for Bernie we had a group of 30 volunteers (some of whom are pictured below at the election night party) canvass, leaflet, and phone bank for Bernie in Cambria County for the last 3 weeks of the campaign.  The Clinton campaign sent in Bill Clinton and volunteers from Arkansas a week after.  We covered the city of Johnstown and made it as far north as Ebensburg and Loretto.  The results on the Cambria County office of elections gives the following results that show Sanders won here by 537 votes out of 18,857 cast.



Candidate
Percent
Votes
Hillary
Clinton


44%
8304

Bernie
Sanders


46.9%
8841

Roque Rocky De La
Fuente


2.6%
499

WRITE-IN


6.4%
1213



The group of volunteers who made it happen for Bernie Sanders in Cambria County
For comparison below is the election map for the PA primary in 2008.  Clinton won it by a similar margin with 55% of the vote but the pattern of wins by county was very different.  Obama won only 7 counties but winning 45% of the vote.  Turnout was higher that year with 2.3 million voting compared to 1.6 million voting this year in the democratic primary.  

For Cambria County, Clinton won there with 72% of the vote in 2008 with 31,643 turning out.  The turnout was down by 40% countywide in 2016 compared to a 29% decrease statewide.  This decrease may be partly explained by a decrease in population in the county (5.1% decrease or approximately 7,000 since 2010) and by reports of 61,000 Democrats statewide switching to Republicans presumably to vote for Donald Trump.  18,000 of which are in the southwest corner of the state.
2008 Election Map for PA Democratic Primary

For the Republicans, turnout was about 50% higher in the County and statewide partly due to Democrats switching sides and also due to there being a competitive primary which hasn't happened for Pennsylvania Republicans since 1980.  Donald Trump won the county with 65% or 10,795 votes out of 16,478 cast which is higher than Trump's percentage for the state.  

The outcomes of the primaries in both parties suggest that both sides are unhappy with politics as usual and their economic conditions in both the state as a whole and more so in Cambria County.  Our group took steps to address these concerns in a different manner than the Trump supporters.  Not by scapegoating foreigners but by addressing economic inequality.  There are some areas of agreement between Trump and Sanders supporters on free trade agreements being bad for the economy and the Iraq war being a big mistake.  To build a long term effective coalition one needs more than just fear to hold it together.  The primary shows that Cambria County can be fertile ground for Sanders' as well as Trump's ideas.  Time will tell which ideas will grow the most.

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2014 Income and Poverty Update for Pennsylvania and Cambria County 

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