Showing posts with label Education. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Education. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Our Webinar on the Corona Virus Numbers in Cambria County



Last Tuesday I was a panelist on a webinar explaining the coronavirus numbers in Cambria County.  Other panelists were Jill Henning, Biology Professor at Pitt-Johnstown and Tulsi Shrivastava, a local data scientist.  You can view the slides for the presentation below.  It lasts for 40 minutes.  As of that panel, the county ranked 7th in the state in cases per 100,000, 8th in case mortality (# of deaths/# of deaths), 10th in testing rate, 15th in hospitalizations, 4th in deaths/100,000, 4th in patients on a ventilator/100,000, and 8th in full vaccinations/100,000.

 

Since then the numbers have changed.  The county now ranks 8th in the state in cases/100,000 at 8,346.  It still ranks 8th in the state in cases mortality at 3.37%.  It now ranks 11th in the state in testing at 38.17%, 10th in the state in hospitalizations at 32.26/100,000, 5th in deaths at 281.12/100,000, 5th in patients on a ventilator at 5.38/100,000, and 11th in full vaccinations at 2,290/100,000.  Recent numbers have been encouraging but we can't let our guard down.

On of the sponsors on the webinar was the Tribune Democrat.  Chip Minemyer, their editor moderated the panel.  The post of the Tribune-Democrat's article received 13 likes and 10 haha's.  Here is a smattering of comments it received on Facebook. 

"it all depends on how the numbers are collected. I have come to the conclusion that it's best not to believe stats."  (liked by 3)

"More propaganda from this site. Terrible." Liked by 5, laughed at by 1, and wowed by 1.

"And if you want it changed to the actual cause do you have to go to court to get it changed?" liked by 1.

"I’ve not seen cycle threshold values reported anywhere. Are those available with local Covid tests?" Liked by none.

"Depends on who inputs the numbers." liked by 2.

"Lol the numbers are wrong, What makes them a expert at a new virus? These people are part of the problem! I know a few people who past with in the past few months and none of them had covid but they mark their death as covid..."  Liked by 5, laughed at by 4, wowed by one.

"like you can trust the trib......lol......" Laughed at by one.

"Numbers do lie when a person with an agenda is on the other end.
Like the crooks in Tom Wolfs administration." Liked by 3, laughed at by one.

 "Why does the The Tribune-Democrat print letters advocating the murder of 74 million people?"

 Laughed at by one.











"As a native of the area, I'm pleased that the Tribune Democrat is still a real newspaper. Bravo!" Liked by 6 laughed at by 3.

"Sounds great if the numbers were 100% accurate" liked by none

" Unless the the people responsible for entering data are compromised" Liked by 4.

Some people may think me sadistic for even looking at these comments  but it does give clues to the thinking of those who In This Together Needs to reach.  I'd love to know how many of them actually read the article.

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Thursday, November 7, 2019

Differences between Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts in Special Education


The following is an excerpt from my upcoming book on Johnstown by the numbers.
            The Pennsylvania StateData Center issues an annual report on each school district in the state onspecial education data. For this book I will take a look at the Greater Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts for the ’07-’08 and ‘18-’19 school years. This is to show changes in enrollment and the special education population over the last 11 years. The state rates are provided for comparison.
            The table below shows that enrollment in each school district and in the state overall has decreased. Statewide it has decreased 4.3% while in Greater Johnstown it has decreased 4.7%, in Richland it has decreased 7.8% and in Westmont it has decreased 14.5% over this time period. The percentage of enrollment in special Ed increased from 15% to 17.3% statewide. In Greater Johnstown it decreased from 19% to 17.9% over the same period while in Richland it increased from 10.1% to 11% and in Westmont it increased from 9.4% to 14.1%.  The Greater Johnstown School District does have a larger burden than the state as a whole or the more affluent Richland and Westmont School Districts.
The starkest change in the enrollment for Greater Johnstown school district is in its ethnic makeup. In the ’07-’08 school year the district was 67% Caucasian.  Ten years later it was 45% a 22% decrease.  The African American percentage increased from 29.8% to 34% over this period while Hispanic enrollment increased from 1.8% to 4.2% over this period.  The remainder of the student body or 16% is identified as multiracial in 2018. This category was not reported in ’07-’08.
For special education, African Americans were 27.1% of the total in ’07-’08 and 33% in ‘18-’19 which is 1% lower than their representation in the student body. Caucasians were 70.8% of special educations students in ’07-’08  which was 3.8% higher than it was in the student body and in ‘18-’19 they were 49% of the total which is 4% higher than their representation in the student body. 13.8% of special ed students were multiracial in ‘18-’19 which is 2.2% lower than their percentage in the student body.
In Richland the % Caucasian decreased from 96.1% in ’07-’08 to 90.7% in ‘18-’19. The % African American increased from 1% to 2.5% and the % Hispanic increased from 1% to 1.9% over this period. 2.3% of those enrolled identified as multiracial in ‘18-’19.  95% of those in special education were Caucasian in ’07-’08 while 89.2% were in ‘18-’19.  African Americans were less than 1% of special education students there in ’07-’08 while in ‘18-’19 there were 6.6% of the total which is 4.1% higher than their percentage in the student body.
In Westmont the % Caucasian in the student body decreased from 96.6% in ’07-’08 to 87.1% in ‘18-’19.  The % of African Americans increased from 1.2% to 2.1% and the % of Hispanics increased from 0.7% to 2.9% over this period.  The percentage of those identified as multiracial were 6.5% in ‘18-’19.  The special education students were 96.3% Caucasian in ’07-’08 and 79.7% in ‘18-’19 for an underrepresentation of 0.3% and 7.4% respectively.  For African Americans it was not reported in ’07-’08 or in ‘18-’19. For Hispanics it was not reported in ’07-’08 but in ‘18-’19 it was 5.3% which is 2.4% higher than the student body.  Multiracial special ed students were 8.7% of the total which is 2.2% higher than the student body in the year ‘18-’19.
Looking at the changes in the types of disabilities served, statewide there was an decrease in the percentage of students with intellectual (-2.2%) and learning (-11.5%) disabilities, with speech and/or language impairments (-1.8) and emotional disturbances (-0.9%).  There was a 6.7% increase in the percentage of special ed students with autism.

  • ·         In Greater Johnstown there were decreases in intellectual (-0.3) and learning (-14.5%) disabilities and in speech and/or language impairments (-5.4%).  There were increases in autism (10.3%) and emotional disturbance (2.3%). 
  • ·         At Richland there were likewise decreases in the percentage of intellectual (-3.7%) and learning (-15%) disabilities and in speech and/or language impairments (-7.7%).  There were increases in autism (15.7%) and emotional disturbance (8.5%).
  • ·         At Westmont there was a decrease in the percentage of learning disabilities (-14.8%) and speech and/or language impairments (-4.4%) and an increase in the percentage of students with intellectual disabilities (1.2%), autism (18.4%), and emotional disturbance (3.6%).
This could mostly be a reflection of the fact that autism is diagnosed now a lot more often than it has been in the past.


Greater Johnstown
Richland
Westmont
State
‘07-'08
‘18-’19
‘07-'08
‘18-’19
‘07-'08
‘18-’19
‘07-'08
‘18-’19
% special Ed
19%
17.90%
10.10%
11.00%
9.40%
14.10%
15.2%
17.30%
Total Enrollment
3,027
2,886
1,633
1,506
1,720
1,470
1,801,760
1,723,405
% Caucasian (total)
67.00%
45%
96.10%
90.70%
96.60%
87.10%
73.9%
64.6%
% Caucasian (Sp. ed.)
70.80%
49%
95.20%
89.20%
96.30%
79.70%
NR
63.1%
% African American (total)
29.80%
34%
1.00%
2.50%
1.20%
2.10%
16.0%
14.8%
% African American (Sp. ed.)
27.10%
33%
NR
6.60%
NR
NR
NR
17.8%
Specific Disabilities (% of all special ed)








Intellectual Disability
7.10%
6.80%
12.70%
9.00%
7.50%
8.70%
8.50%
6.30%
Autism
NR
10.30%
NR
15.70%
NR
18.40%
4.60%
11.30%
Learning Disability
49.20%
34.70%
49.70%
39.80%
53.40%
38.60%
52.10%
40.60%
Emotional Disturbance
11.50%
13.80%
0.00%
8.50%
7.50%
11.10%
9.40%
8.50%
Speech or Language Impairment
18.40%
13.00%
14.50%
7.80%
15.50%
10.10%
16.10%
14.30%

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Happy 3.14159..... Day

I have an interview published on the website Manufacturing Chemist on healthcare analytics which you are welcome to check out.  



Today is pi Day (march 14 or 3/14).  Which is more celebrated now than March 15 or the Ides of March, the day Julius Caesar was killed.  Of course it's not as celebrated as St. Patrick's day everywhere but in Ireland itself.  

Pi is the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter.  It is used to calculate the area of a circle, the circumference of a circle, and the volume of a sphere.  It is also used in the famous normal distribution in statistics, aka the bell shaped curve as seen in the formula below.  Here the probability value of x is conditioned on the variables mean mu and variance sigma squared.  Pi is a constant in this equation.
There are many other uses for pi in math.  Many of which I am not aware so I will leave it here.


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Wednesday, December 12, 2018

The Greater Johnstown School District is Highest in PA in Poverty for Ages 5-17

Map of the Greater Johnstown School District (in Blue) with 42.3% Poverty Age 5-17
The new SAIPE (Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates)  are out for the year 2017.  It covers all states, counties, and school districts (for children age 5-17) in the US.  For the US the rate for children 5-17 was an estimated 17.1%.  For the state of Pennsylvania it was 15.7% for this age group. There were 500 school districts in Pennsylvania in 2017.   This post will focus on southern Cambria County (the whole county had 21% poverty for age 5-17).  

The Greater Johnstown School District (GJSD) had the highest poverty rate in the state (highlighted in blue in the map above) with 42.3% poverty for ages 5-17.  By contrast the neighboring districts of Westmont (which covered the municipalities of Upper Yoder, Westmont, Southmont, and Elim in the map) had a rate of 10.1%, Ferndale (in 4 green fragments in the southeast corner of the GJSD) had a rate of 23.8%, Richland (covering Richland and Geistown) had a rate of 11.2%) and Conemaugh Valley (covering East Conemaugh) had a rate of 21.3% which is almost exactly at the county rate.  The top ten school districts with the highest poverty percentages are presented in the table below.

Looking at past estimates for GJSD that I have written about in this blog, the poverty rates for ages 5-17 was 40.7% in 2013, 41.1% in 2014, 36.9% in 2015, 42.5% in 2016, and it was 42.32% in 2017.  There is some statistical uncertainty in these estimates, especially for districts with small populations such as Salisbury-Elk Lick SD with 473 children.  GJSD however is still a relatively large district population in this group so we can be reasonably confident in these numbers.  The population of GJSD is larger than the population for Johnstown city (19,643) because it includes surrounding municipalities.  


                  2017 Poverty Estimates for School districts                                                                        
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Program (SAIPE)                                                                                                            Release date:   December 2018
Name
Estimated Total Population
Estimated Population 5-17
Estimated number of relevant children 5 to 17 years old in poverty who are related to the householder
% of Children 5-17 in Poverty
Greater Johnstown School District
25,603
3,464
1,466
42.32
Salisbury-Elk Lick School District
2,844
473
199
42.07
Clairton City School District
6,788
865
347
40.12
Aliquippa School District
9,193
1,257
494
39.30
Farrell Area School District
5,350
837
323
38.59
Harrisburg City School District
50,923
8,743
3,365
38.49
Sto-Rox School District
12,449
1,841
682
37.05
Duquesne City School District
5,561
949
347
36.56
Brownsville Area School District
14,443
1,786
623
34.88
Shenandoah Valley School District
7,638
1,174
407
34.67

I was going to write about how the Greater Johnstown, PA was the poorest in the state thinking that I would be the first but apparently I have been scooped.  Samuel Stebbins and Michael B. Sauter at MSN.com have produced a list of the poorest towns in each state and Johnstown was it for Pennsylvania.  They state that the median annual income here is $24,075 below the state income of $54,895.  A search of the census bureau's statistical profile for Johnstown shows that the median income is $23,636 for 2017 for Johnstown and $ 56,951 for the state.  The authors did not state the source of their numbers but I assume that they used numbers from the census from some other recent year.  The 2017 numbers suggest an even larger income gap between Johnstown and the rest of the state now than the year Stebbins and Sauter used.
The GJSD has been going through upheaval over nepotism going on in the school board.  This does not mean that the upheaval is what is causing the problems in poverty in the district but it does mean that the focus must be on providing services the the poor students there.   
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New Poverty Estimates for PA Counties