My occupation is a statistician. I tell people it is like "CSI without dead bodies" because analyzing a set of data that has been collected is like doing an autopsy on a deceased person in the sense that I'm trying to learn what I can from what statistics and information are available. Except in this case the information does not involve gross things. For me the research process can be humorous, scary, but always captivating.
Saturday, February 20, 2021
Why the New York COVID-19 Nursing Home Scandal Matters
Thursday, February 11, 2021
Size of PA County Elderly Population Predicts Smaller Nursing Home COVID-19 Mortality
This week I thought I would take a look at mortality in nursing homes (or Long Term Care Facilities (LTCF)) in Pennsylvania. Statewide, nursing home deaths account for 52.1% of the total coronavirus deaths. Looking at the county level there is considerable variability in the rates where the 10 counties with the highest rates are seen below. The rates for this group rage from 115.8% for Forest county to 67.2% for Delaware County. Forest county actually has 3 more LTCF deaths than total deaths with one facility. This suggests that at least 3 of their residents reside outside the county. You can see the full list of counties here.
Facility County |
Number of Facilities with Cases |
Number of Cases Among Residents |
Number of Cases Among Employees |
Number of Deaths in LTCF |
Total Deaths in the County |
% of death in LTCF |
Case
Mortality in LTCF |
FOREST |
1 |
121 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
115.8% |
15.0% |
ERIE |
35 |
1354 |
717 |
287 |
363 |
79.1% |
13.9% |
MCKEAN |
9 |
372 |
110 |
47 |
60 |
78.3% |
9.8% |
CENTRE |
16 |
675 |
146 |
155 |
203 |
76.4% |
18.9% |
BUTLER |
29 |
1421 |
156 |
257 |
350 |
73.4% |
16.3% |
LACKAWANNA |
35 |
1423 |
295 |
290 |
395 |
73.4% |
16.9% |
LYCOMING |
19 |
922 |
283 |
165 |
232 |
71.1% |
13.7% |
MONTGOMERY |
111 |
4723 |
186 |
1026 |
1456 |
70.5% |
20.9% |
CARBON |
7 |
407 |
48 |
95 |
138 |
68.8% |
20.9% |
DELAWARE |
59 |
3197 |
871 |
796 |
1184 |
67.2% |
19.6% |
The bottom 10 counties are listed below. The percentage of deaths in the in LTCFs for this group rage from 35.7% in Sullivan County to 15.0% in Potter County. Surprisingly, Philadelphia county is in this bottom tier with 26.1% of their deaths in LTCFs. Another way of looking at mortality in LTCFs is the case mortality or the % of cases who have died. Philadelphia ranks 11th in the state on this measure with Pike county ranking 1st at 27.0% and Cameron County ranking last at 4.3%.
Facility County |
Number of Facilities with Cases |
Number of Cases Among Residents |
Number of Cases Among Employees |
Number of Deaths in LTCF |
Total Deaths in the County |
% of death in LTCF |
Case
Mortality in LTCF |
SULLIVAN |
3 |
94 |
13 |
5 |
14 |
35.7% |
4.7% |
WAYNE |
5 |
88 |
19 |
20 |
58 |
34.5% |
18.7% |
BEDFORD |
5 |
269 |
29 |
43 |
126 |
34.1% |
14.4% |
FRANKLIN |
26 |
799 |
94 |
106 |
313 |
33.9% |
11.9% |
CAMERON |
1 |
36 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
28.6% |
4.3% |
SNYDER |
2 |
124 |
31 |
20 |
73 |
27.4% |
12.9% |
PHILADELPHIA |
85 |
4222 |
16 |
782 |
3001 |
26.1% |
18.5% |
ELK |
3 |
122 |
50 |
8 |
34 |
23.5% |
4.7% |
CLINTON |
6 |
112 |
48 |
9 |
53 |
17.0% |
5.6% |
POTTER |
3 |
45 |
15 |
3 |
20 |
15.0% |
5.0% |
I looked at the percentage of the population in each county over the age of 65 and found some interesting patterns. For the correlation with % of deaths in LTCFs, as the proportion of the population over 65 increases the % of deaths decreases as seen with the graph below. Forest county is an outlier and is labeled green in the scatterplot. With Forest county included, this relationship accounts for 6% of the variability in the data. When Forest county is excluded, the relationship accounts for 11.6% of the variability in the data and is still negative. I don't have a good explanation for this but will investigate further.