Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Polls Preventing Trump from Shutting Down Government Again


Happy Valentines Day All.  One month ago I posted on how Trump's approval ratings have decreased while the 35 day government shutdown was going on from 42.5% in the Real Clear Politics Average on Dec 23 to 41% when it ended.  In the few weeks thereafter, his rating has improved back to a little above where it was before at 43.5%.

With the Feb 15 deadline looming for another shutdown President Trump has announce that he will sign the spending bill to avoid another shutdown.  To get his wall he will declare a national emergency.  While this may lead to a long court battle it may help Trump with his base (but no one else) as the shutdown didn't.

**Related Posts**

Immigration: An International Issue



Monday, March 21, 2016

Which Religious Group Supports Trump the Most?


Looking at Juan Cole's blog Informed Comment I came across this graph showing the preferences of the four major religious groups (Islam, Judaism, Protestant, and Catholic) in the US for the top 5 Presidential candidates from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.  The survey was conducted before Marco Rubio dropped out of the race.  The focus of the survey was how Muslims compare to other religious groups with respect to the 2016 election.  Predictably Muslims more strongly support Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders than the Republicans.  

The one number that jumped out at me n the graph at the top was the group that most strongly supported Donald Trump.  Donald Trump was supported by 4% of Muslims, 13% of Jews, 17% of Protestants and 28% of Catholics.  This number seems worth investigating.  Another graph in their report presented below shows that 47% of Protestants are more likely to identify as Republican compared to 34% of Catholics, 16% of Jews, and 6% of Muslims.  This comes as exit polls in the primaries show Trump doing well among evangelical or born again Christians with Ted Cruz doing better in some states. 
The graph below may shed some light Catholic support for Trump.  Immigration and National Security were listed as the top issues among Catholics while the economy and national security were listed as top among Protestants.  The economy was most important among the other groups.
It seems as though issues with the US and foreigners trumps the brief feud that Trump had with Pope Francis regarding his proposal to build a wall on the border with Mexico for 28% of US Catholics.  

**Update** 

Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won the Utah Caucus handily over Trump where the state is 70% Mormon.  The LDS church (aka the Mormons) might be a good group to survey on their political preferences which may differ from mainline protestants and Catholics.

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Terrorism Boost for Trump?

Numbers and Catholicism 

More Hate Groups in States Where Trump Wins

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Post Paris Politics, Fear of Refugees, and Medicaid

The horrific attacks in Paris have sent a wave of fear around the world.  As of this writing, 28 governors in the US have said that they will not accept refugees from the civil war in Syria for fear that ISIS members will sneak into their states.  26 of these 28 governors (84%) are Republican.  10 out of the 18 Democratic governors (55%) have said that they will accept these refugees.  This difference is significant according to Fisher's exact test (p < 0.001).  The full numbers are displayed in the table below and the political affiliation of each states' governor is displayed below that.



Accepting Syrian 
Refugees     
Governor Political Party (% of Party)
D
I
R
Total
  no        
2 (11%)
0
26 (84%)
28
  undecided    
6 (33%)
1 (100%)
5 (16%)
12
  yes      
10 (55%)
0
0
10
Total
18
1
31
50

I have written extensively about which states have been willing to expand medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.  Below is a current map of the states expanding Medicaid.  Currently none of the 17 states which are refusing or considering to expand medicaid are accepting refugees. 10 states (all with Democratic governors) which are implementing some form of Medicaid expansion. are accepting refugees.  This difference is not as sharp as that for states with Republican Governors (p=0.003).

Accepting Syrian Refugees     
Expanding Medicaid (% of Column)
considering
no
yes
Total
  no        
1 (20%)
14 (82%)
13 (46%)
28
  undecided    
4 (80%)
3 (18%)
5 (18%)
12
  yes      
0
0
10 (36%)
10
Total
5
17
28
50
 

  Where the States Stand
Via: The Advisory Board Company

The relationship between the party affiliation of governors and medicaid expansion is similar to that of accepting refugees and medicaid expansion (p=0.004).  16 out of 31 republican governors (52%) are either expanding or considering to expand Medicaid.  It could be that the party that controls the governor's mansion changed in the last election in states that are expanding.  Kentucky just elected a new republican governor who is promising to reverse expansion but other republican governors such as Chris Christie (NJ) and John Kasich (Oh) have implemented expansion and have not suffered adverse political consequences (but may have in their Presidential Campaigns). 



Political Party of Governor     
Expanding Medicaid (% of Column)
considering
no
yes
Total
  D
1 (20%)
2 (12%)
15 (54%)
18
  I   
1 (20%)
0
0
1
  R      
3 (60%)
15 (88%)
13 (46%)
31
Total
5
17
28
50


This analysis shows that there is high probability of a partisan component to the governors not wanting Syrian refugees in their state.  This shift in medicaid expansion among republican governors could similarly happen with the right public pressure for the Syrian refugees (even Jeb Bush who is advocating that only Syrian Christians be allowed in the US)Below is a discussion of the the true nature of the refugees from Syria.

**Related Posts**



The Affordable Care Act Having an Impact in Some States but not Pennsylvania

Immigration: An International Issue

 

The World Wars and Today's Wars