The Democratic Presidential race has changed radically since the South Carolina Primary. As a Bernie Sanders supporter I was so hopeful for him to have a strong showing. The outcome was very sobering. I thought I would take a look at the exit poll data from SC and other states from Super Tuesday on the issue of Sanders' Medicare for All (M4A) proposal.
South Carolina and the five southern Super Tuesday states are summarized in the above tables. The numbers right below "Support" and "Oppose" are the percentage of primary voters who either support or oppose the statement "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?"
In South Carolina, it was favored by 49% to 46%. Biden beat Sanders 44% to 29% of those who support M4A. Biden beat Sanders 55% to 12% among those who oppose M4A. Similar patterns were found in Alabama and Virginia. In Tennessee, North Carolina, and Texas, Sanders did slightly better than Biden among those who support M4A and was trounced by Biden among those who did not. Texas had the strongest support for Sanders proposal but he only bested Biden by 14 points among those who do.
It is also known that older African American voters overwhelmingly supported Biden. The exit poll does not state whether they were more or less likely to support Medicare for All.
Three of the states outside of the deep south where Sanders fared better against Biden are shown above: Massachusetts, California, and Vermont. In Massachusetts the 69% who supported M4A favored Sanders over Biden by 41% to 23%. Warren received 27% among those who do.
In California and Vermont, Sanders had strong support among those who support M4A. Biden won among those who did not. The lesson from these primaries and the 2016 and 2008 elections is that it is almost impossible to win the Democratic party nomination for president without substantial African American support. It would be interesting to look at what role support for M4A plays in this.
**Update**
Biden has now won Mississippi, Michigan, and Missouri. In Mississippi 60% of voters support M4A but 75% of those voted for Biden. In the video below, Biden said he would veto any M4A bill that came to his desk as president. In Missouri and Michigan those supported M4A preferred Sanders.
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SC
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
AL
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
VA
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
49%
|
46%
|
51%
|
43%
|
52%
|
45%
|
|||
Biden
|
44%
|
55%
|
Biden
|
50%
|
76%
|
Biden
|
42%
|
67%
|
Sanders
|
29%
|
12%
|
Sanders
|
27%
|
5%
|
Sanders
|
33%
|
12%
|
TN
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
NC
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
TX
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
53%
|
43%
|
55%
|
41%
|
64%
|
33%
|
|||
Biden
|
32%
|
51%
|
Biden
|
34%
|
54%
|
Biden
|
25%
|
46%
|
Sanders
|
38%
|
9%
|
Sanders
|
36%
|
12%
|
Sanders
|
39%
|
13%
|
South Carolina and the five southern Super Tuesday states are summarized in the above tables. The numbers right below "Support" and "Oppose" are the percentage of primary voters who either support or oppose the statement "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?"
In South Carolina, it was favored by 49% to 46%. Biden beat Sanders 44% to 29% of those who support M4A. Biden beat Sanders 55% to 12% among those who oppose M4A. Similar patterns were found in Alabama and Virginia. In Tennessee, North Carolina, and Texas, Sanders did slightly better than Biden among those who support M4A and was trounced by Biden among those who did not. Texas had the strongest support for Sanders proposal but he only bested Biden by 14 points among those who do.
It is also known that older African American voters overwhelmingly supported Biden. The exit poll does not state whether they were more or less likely to support Medicare for All.
MA
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
CA
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
VT
|
Support
|
Oppose
|
50%
|
45%
|
55%
|
36%
|
73%
|
23%
|
|||
Biden
|
23%
|
46%
|
Biden
|
14%
|
35%
|
Biden
|
14%
|
42%
|
Sanders
|
41%
|
13%
|
Sanders
|
48%
|
14%
|
Sanders
|
62%
|
25%
|
Warren
|
27%
|
14%
|
Three of the states outside of the deep south where Sanders fared better against Biden are shown above: Massachusetts, California, and Vermont. In Massachusetts the 69% who supported M4A favored Sanders over Biden by 41% to 23%. Warren received 27% among those who do.
In California and Vermont, Sanders had strong support among those who support M4A. Biden won among those who did not. The lesson from these primaries and the 2016 and 2008 elections is that it is almost impossible to win the Democratic party nomination for president without substantial African American support. It would be interesting to look at what role support for M4A plays in this.
**Update**
Biden has now won Mississippi, Michigan, and Missouri. In Mississippi 60% of voters support M4A but 75% of those voted for Biden. In the video below, Biden said he would veto any M4A bill that came to his desk as president. In Missouri and Michigan those supported M4A preferred Sanders.