Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Friday, July 1, 2022

Post Roe Reversal and Cassidy Hutchinson Polls on Trump and the GOP

It has been a week since SCROTUS reversed their Roe vs. Wade decision on abortion and made other revolting decisions on guns, school prayer and the environment to name a few. It has also been about 5 days since former White House aide Cassady Hutchinson gave damning testimony on Trump's role in the Jan 6 attack on the capitol. While there is a paucity of polling during the 4th of July holiday, there is enough to draw some conclusions on election prospects in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 election.

Emerson has come out with a poll on the 2024 GOP nomination for President after the Roe decision and the Hutchinson. It shows Donald Trump in the driver's seat with 55% of the vote followed by Ron DeSantis with 20% and Mike Pence with 9%. A Politico/Morning Consult poll taken after the Roe decision but before the Hutchinson testimony found a similar result with 51% for Trump, 23% for DeSantis and 8% for Pence. The same Emerson poll also showed Trump ahead of Biden 44% to 39% if the election were held today. Both polling organizations used samples of registered voters rather then likely voters.















The above graph shows how Real Clear Politics Polling Average of Trump's favorability ratings have changed since he announced his run for President in 2015. His ratings did drop from 42.5% on Jan 6 to 37.2% on Jan 18. They have risen more or less steadily since then to a post presidency high of 45.8% on April 24 of this year. Since the hearings began and the Roe reversal happened his favorability ratings have declined by 2% to 43.8% as of June 29th, 3 days after Hutchinson's testimony.














Above is the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for the Generic Congressional vote. It shows that the Democrats had the advantage before November of last year and the GOP took over. Since then the GOPs advantage over the Dems peaked at 4.7% on April 29. It decreased to an advantage of 1.9% on May 29th. After the Jan 6th hearings began on June 10, the numbers for both parties declined with the gap between them increasing to only 2.8% on June 22. After the Roe reversal and Hutchinson's testimony, the gap between the parties shrunk to 2.2%.

The generic congressional vote is a crude measure of how the Congressional and Senate races will go. In 2020, the Democrats had a 6.8% advantage in the polling average but only received 3.1% more votes than the GOP. Of course gerrymandering can be a confounding variable. Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight gives the GOP an 87% chance of taking control of the House and a 53% chance of taking the Senate. They also predict that the leading Republican on the Jan 6 committee, Liz Cheyney, will lose to her primary challenger in August.



**Update**


A new poll Generic Congressional Poll From Harvard has come out showing Democrats and Republicans tied at 50% each. This brings the Real Clear Politics average down to 2.0%. Trump's favorability rating in this poll is 42% bringing this RCP average down to 43.6%. This poll also shows Trump in the drivers seat for the 2024 nomination with 56% compared to DeSantis with 16% and Pence with 7%. Is this the start of a trend? Stay tuned.

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Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade



Saturday, May 21, 2022

2022 PA Primary Post Mortem
























The 2022 Pennsylvania primary is almost in the books. State Sen. Doug Mastriano and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman won their respective primaries handily for Governor and U.S. Senator. Attorney General Josh Shapiro was unopposed for the Democratic Nomination for Governor while Dr. Mehmet Oz and and David McCormick are separated by roughly 1,000 votes for the GOP nod for the U.S. Senate.

The graphic above for the Real Clear Politics polling average for the GOP Governors race shows that Mastriano's lead began on April 15 and the gap began to widen on May 4. His actual percentage of the vote was 44% which was 9.7% higher than his final RCP average of 34.5%. The other candidates performed fairly close to their polling averages which suggests that the undecided voters broke for Mastriano in the last days of the campaign. This is partially explained by Trump's last minute endorsement of Mastriano. Jake Corman and Melissa Hart dropping out of the race to endorse Barletta had no effect.














The Senate race in PA has received a lot more scrutiny than the governors race. McCormick received a bigger surge in the last days of the campaign. Oz's percentage of the vote was 4.4% higher than his polling average while McCormick's was 10.5% higher. Kathy Barnette performed almost exactly the same as her polling average. My cousin Casey Contres is biting his nails over this one with the upcoming recounts. Trump's endorsement of Oz did not carry the same weight in this race.

On a local note, State Rep Frank Burns defeated challenger Michael Cashaw 72% to 28%. There were no exit polls in this primary which makes it harder to determine what the voters were thinking. I also have yet to see head to head polling for the Democratic and the GOP candidates for statewide offices for the fall. One bright spot for progressives in PA is that Summer Lee has won her primary for congress in Pittsburgh despite a smear campaign from outside groups. 



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Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade



Saturday, May 7, 2022

Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade


Much has been made of the leaked opinion written by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito overturning the Roe v. Wade decision. The SCOTUS (or more accurately SCROTUS) decision will be made official in late June. If it hadn't been leaked, demonstrations, like the one above, would be erupting in June instead of now.

If this decision remains in June, the battle over abortion rights moves to the states making the upcoming elections even more critical. Pennsylvania's senate race was already receiving national attention with Pat Toomey retiring and celebrities like Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman running to replace him. The battle over state offices (Governor, Senate, and House) should become more heated as well. 

This week, Franklin and Marshall College published a poll showing Dr. Oz with a 2% lead over David McCormick in the Republican primary for Senate. This difference is within the margin of error of 6.9% and and 39% of GOP voters are still undecided. This poll was conducted before the SCOTUS opinion was leaked. Only 4% of voters listed "Women's Rights: Pro-life/Pro-choice" as the most important issue for which candidate they will support in the GOP primary. Donald Trump's endorsement of J.D, Vance in the Ohio GOP Senate primary helped propel him to victory this week.

John Fetterman has a big lead in the same poll on the Democratic side with 53% of the vote over Conor Lamb with 14%. Among the Democrats, only 2% of the voters listed "Women's Rights: Pro-life/Pro-choice" as their important issue. I have a feeling these percentages have increased on both sides since the SCOTUS leak.

Among the GOP, Trump still has 70% of respondents saying that they have strongly of somewhat favorable views of him. On this metric, Dr. Oz has 29% favorability and McCormick has 31%. Likewise, Biden has 80% favorability ratings on the Democratic side. Fetterman has 77%, Conor Lamb has 46%, and Gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro (running unopposed) has 62%.

Of all survey respondents, 31% said that abortion should be legal in all circumstances, 54% said it should be legal under certain circumstances, and 14% said it should be illegal in all circumstances. Since June 2009, there was a 13% increase in those who said it should be legal in all circumstances while, over the same period, there was an 8% decrease in those who wanted it illegal in all circumstances. The generic ballot for US/state house races shows 43% favoring the GOP, 39% favoring Democrats and 18% undecided.

It remains to be seen how the SCOTUS decision will affect the race. There are infinite possibilities for what could happen between now and November. Certainly passions will be higher on both sides. Dr. Oz's campaign manager happens to be my cousin, Casey Contres.

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Sunday, January 17, 2021

Chicken's Coming to Roost for Trump?

On Jan 6 I posted my reaction to the shocking events at the U.S. Capitol that day.  I wondered what would happen to Trump's approval ratings as his other antics have had minimal effect on them throughout his presidency.  Now it seems like I have an answer now that there are three days left for him in power.


























The graph above shows a sharp drop in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average in approval rating polls since Jan 6.  Trump's approval rating was 44.2% that day.  Today it is 39.7%, the sharpest decline in his term.  This rating is still 2.7% ahead of the lowest his average approval rating has been back in December 2017.  

Rasmussen (a Republican polling firm) estimates his approval rating to be 48% which is by far the highest of any of the major polling firms.  They limit their sample size to likely voters where the other firms sample from all adult Americans or from registered voters.


  

Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight estimates his average approval rating to be 38.7% which is 1% lower than the RCP average.  They weight their polls by the their quality based on sample size and bias in the selection.  They rate some polls such as ABC News/Washington Post as A grade and others such as Economist/Yougov as B.  Rasmussen is rated as C+.  Otherwise the trend in the poll average for FiveThirtyEight mirrors that of the RCP.  

It remains to be seen what will happen in the upcoming impeachment trial of Trump.  Sixty seven Senators will have to vote to convict him to bar him from ever holding office again.  The decline in his approval ratings may give 17 GOP Senators the courage to vote with the 50 Democrats to do so as it gave 10 GOP House members the courage to break with the rest of their party to impeach.  

Nixon's approval rating was 25.1% before he resigned when GOP senators told him the game was up. Democracy Now has a discussion on what happens next for Trump with historian Tim Snyder.  He does face state level investigations for which he cannot be pardoned either by himself or by his successor.  Snyder says he believes the best option for Trump would be to leave the country.


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Sunday, November 29, 2020

A Tie for First Place in the Best Nonfiction Book of All Time Poll

I'll take another break from Coronavirus to talk about my book and the second anniversary of my Best Nonfiction Book of All Time poll.  Hopefully it's more inspiring this holiday season.  First my book.

Christmas tree created by Duane Webb showing books by local authors (myself included).  You can bid on it at the Community Arts Center of Cambria County's silent auction on Menoher Blvd

Wuthering Depths in Johnstown: By the Numbers now ranks tenth on the Made in Somerset County best seller list out of 46 books.  It is now listed as sold out so I will have to get them more copies for the holidays.

As a reminder I will be having a book signing at AT Merchant in the Galleria Mall in Johnstown this Saturday from noon to three.  Hope you can make it.  

My book is now available at Riek's of Brownstown in addition to the other bookstores:  Classic ElementsYoung Hearts Books and ToysChameleon BookstoreSecond Chapter Books in Ligonier, and the Bottle Works Ethnic arts Center.

This week marks the second anniversary of my poll for the best nonfiction book of all time.  This time last year, the poll had 45 responses.  This year it has 57 total responses.  The top 6 responses are in the table below.

Book

Number (%)

1.    On the Origin of Species by Charles Darwin (1859)

15 (26.3%)

1.    Anne Frank: The Diary of a Young Girl by Anne Frank (1947)

15 (26.3%)

2.    Silent Spring by Rachel Carson (1962)

13 (22.8%)

3.    Night by Elie Wiesel (1956)

11 (19.3%)

4.    On Writing: A Memoir of the Craft by Stephen King (2000)

9 (15.8%)

5.    Walden by Henry David Thoreau (1854)

8 (14%)

As you can see, there is currently a tie for the top spot between the Origin of Species and Anne Frank: The Diary of a Young Girl.  Last year, Darwin's book held the top spot while Anne Frank's diary was in the tie for second with the Silent SpringNight by Elie Wiesel moved up one spot.  Stephen King's book On Writing entered the top 5 while Henry David Thoreau's Walden moved down one spot.  

You are more than welcome to break the tie or create new ones by voting in the poll in by clicking on the tab at the top.  There is no finality to the poll but you can make your voice heard.

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Friday, July 24, 2020

How Does Trump Stand for Reelection Now?


Some pundits have written off Trump's reelection chances due to his handling.  They often point to the results of one poll to reinforce that conclusion.  I would argue that it is better to look at the aggregate of polls to see trends.  

The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls includes Republican polling firms like Rasmussen, neutral firms like Politico and Quinnipiac, and Democratic firms like Change Research.  In the graph above we see that the RCP average for Trump's approval rating has steadily declined from an all time high of 47.3% at the beginning of the Coronavirus pandemic to 42.2% today.  This number is still higher than Trump's all time low rating of 37.1% on December 17, 2017.

  

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com website estimates his current approval rating to be 40.4%.  This number is still higher than their all time low estimate of 36.4% on December 17, 2017.  Silver's group uses a different than RCP that you can read about here.  In both poll estimates, Trumps approval rating has never been above 50%.

FiveThirtyEight also provides a comparison of Trump's approval rating the past 12 Presidents at the same point in their Presidencies (1282 days) going back to Harry Truman.  Of these past 12 Presidents, only three had approval ratings lower than Trump's and this point: Truman (39.6%), Carter (33.9%), and George H.W. Bush (36.7%).  Truman managed to win his election bid while Bush and Carter lost.  Ford was in office for fewer than 1282 days and he lost as well.  The other Presidents either won their reelection bids or left office before running again.

RCP's poll average of national polls has Biden leading Trump 49.6% to 40.9% while FiveThirtyEight has Biden up 50.0% to 42.0%.  One should always be careful about making predictions about the outcome of the November election this early.  However it is pretty clear that he faces a tough bid to win this year.  In the month of June 2016, Clinton had a lead of 5.7% over Trump while Biden had a lead of 7.7% over him in June 2020.  He could still eek out an electoral college win with his loyal supporters.


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Friday, May 8, 2020

Coronavirus and the 2020 Election

Today there is a wealth of statistics being released including the ones that I have compiled here.  The official unemployment rate increased from 4.4% in March 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020.  The unofficial rate (which some call the true unemployment rate) rose from 8.7% in March to 22.8% in April.  The official rate counts people who are unemployed and are looking for work.  The unofficial rate includes those who have given up looking for full time work and those who are underemployed (including myself).

Undoubtedly, the political campaigns are going over these numbers to see how they can gain an advantage over the other.  As of today, Joe Biden has a 4.4% advantage in the Real Clear Politics poll average over Donald Trump.  On this date four years ago (May 8), Hillary Clinton had a 6.5% advantage over Trump in the same poll average.  On the same date four years ago Bernie, Sanders had a 13.4% advantage over Trump in the RCP average.  At the time Sanders dropped out of the race on April 7, he had a 4.2% advantage over Trump in the RCP average.  On the same day, Biden had a 6.1% advantage over Trump.


It may be to early to say what impact Tara Reade's allegations have had on the Trump-Biden race.  Both candidates have lost support in recent weeks as can be seen above.  At the beginning of April, Trump's overall approval rating reached its highest point at 47.4% in the RCP average.  It has since fallen to 44.6% which is close to where it was before the pandemic started.

I stay away from making predictions, especially this far out.  Anything is possible in the next few months.  The crisis has given the administration cover on the economy.  They can blame it on the virus.  Both sides will demonize China.  Pennsylvania Governor Wolf has announced that 

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Saturday, March 7, 2020

Lessons from Super Tuesday: Health Care in the Deep South

The Democratic Presidential race has changed radically since the South Carolina Primary.  As a Bernie Sanders supporter I was so hopeful for him to have a strong showing.  The outcome was very sobering.  I thought I would take a look at the exit poll data from SC and other states from Super Tuesday on the issue of Sanders' Medicare for All (M4A) proposal.

SC
Support
Oppose
AL
Support
Oppose
VA
Support
Oppose
49%
46%
51%
43%
52%
45%
Biden
44%
55%
Biden
50%
76%
Biden
42%
67%
Sanders
29%
12%
Sanders
27%
5%
Sanders
33%
12%
TN
Support
Oppose
NC
Support
Oppose
TX
Support
Oppose
53%
43%
55%
41%
64%
33%
Biden
32%
51%
Biden
34%
54%
Biden
25%
46%
Sanders
38%
9%
Sanders
36%
12%
Sanders
39%
13%

South Carolina and the five southern Super Tuesday states are summarized in the above tables.  The numbers right below "Support" and "Oppose" are the percentage of primary voters who either support or oppose the statement "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?"  

In South Carolina, it was favored by 49% to 46%.  Biden beat Sanders 44% to 29% of those who support M4A.  Biden beat Sanders 55% to 12% among those who oppose M4A.  Similar patterns were found in Alabama and Virginia.  In Tennessee, North Carolina, and Texas, Sanders did slightly better than Biden among those who support M4A and was trounced by Biden among those who did not.  Texas had the strongest support for Sanders proposal but he only bested Biden by 14 points among those who do.

It is also known that older African American voters overwhelmingly supported Biden.  The exit poll does not state whether they were more or less likely to support Medicare for All.  

MA
Support
Oppose
CA
Support
Oppose
VT
Support
Oppose
50%
45%

55%
36%

73%
23%
Biden
23%
46%
Biden
14%
35%
Biden
14%
42%
Sanders
41%
13%
Sanders
48%
14%
Sanders
62%
25%
Warren
27%
14%


Three of the states outside of the deep south where Sanders fared better against Biden are shown above: Massachusetts, California, and Vermont.  In Massachusetts the 69% who supported M4A favored Sanders over Biden by 41% to 23%.  Warren received 27% among those who do.

In California and Vermont, Sanders had strong support among those who support M4A.  Biden won among those who did not.  The lesson from these primaries and the 2016 and 2008 elections is that it is almost impossible to win the Democratic party nomination for president without substantial African American support.  It would be interesting to look at what role support for M4A plays in this.

**Update**

Biden has now won Mississippi, Michigan, and Missouri.  In Mississippi 60% of voters support M4A but 75% of those voted for Biden.  In the video below, Biden said he would veto any M4A bill that came to his desk as president.  In Missouri and Michigan those supported M4A preferred Sanders.



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