Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Friday, July 24, 2020

How Does Trump Stand for Reelection Now?


Some pundits have written off Trump's reelection chances due to his handling.  They often point to the results of one poll to reinforce that conclusion.  I would argue that it is better to look at the aggregate of polls to see trends.  

The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls includes Republican polling firms like Rasmussen, neutral firms like Politico and Quinnipiac, and Democratic firms like Change Research.  In the graph above we see that the RCP average for Trump's approval rating has steadily declined from an all time high of 47.3% at the beginning of the Coronavirus pandemic to 42.2% today.  This number is still higher than Trump's all time low rating of 37.1% on December 17, 2017.

  

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com website estimates his current approval rating to be 40.4%.  This number is still higher than their all time low estimate of 36.4% on December 17, 2017.  Silver's group uses a different than RCP that you can read about here.  In both poll estimates, Trumps approval rating has never been above 50%.

FiveThirtyEight also provides a comparison of Trump's approval rating the past 12 Presidents at the same point in their Presidencies (1282 days) going back to Harry Truman.  Of these past 12 Presidents, only three had approval ratings lower than Trump's and this point: Truman (39.6%), Carter (33.9%), and George H.W. Bush (36.7%).  Truman managed to win his election bid while Bush and Carter lost.  Ford was in office for fewer than 1282 days and he lost as well.  The other Presidents either won their reelection bids or left office before running again.

RCP's poll average of national polls has Biden leading Trump 49.6% to 40.9% while FiveThirtyEight has Biden up 50.0% to 42.0%.  One should always be careful about making predictions about the outcome of the November election this early.  However it is pretty clear that he faces a tough bid to win this year.  In the month of June 2016, Clinton had a lead of 5.7% over Trump while Biden had a lead of 7.7% over him in June 2020.  He could still eek out an electoral college win with his loyal supporters.


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Friday, May 8, 2020

Coronavirus and the 2020 Election

Today there is a wealth of statistics being released including the ones that I have compiled here.  The official unemployment rate increased from 4.4% in March 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020.  The unofficial rate (which some call the true unemployment rate) rose from 8.7% in March to 22.8% in April.  The official rate counts people who are unemployed and are looking for work.  The unofficial rate includes those who have given up looking for full time work and those who are underemployed (including myself).

Undoubtedly, the political campaigns are going over these numbers to see how they can gain an advantage over the other.  As of today, Joe Biden has a 4.4% advantage in the Real Clear Politics poll average over Donald Trump.  On this date four years ago (May 8), Hillary Clinton had a 6.5% advantage over Trump in the same poll average.  On the same date four years ago Bernie, Sanders had a 13.4% advantage over Trump in the RCP average.  At the time Sanders dropped out of the race on April 7, he had a 4.2% advantage over Trump in the RCP average.  On the same day, Biden had a 6.1% advantage over Trump.


It may be to early to say what impact Tara Reade's allegations have had on the Trump-Biden race.  Both candidates have lost support in recent weeks as can be seen above.  At the beginning of April, Trump's overall approval rating reached its highest point at 47.4% in the RCP average.  It has since fallen to 44.6% which is close to where it was before the pandemic started.

I stay away from making predictions, especially this far out.  Anything is possible in the next few months.  The crisis has given the administration cover on the economy.  They can blame it on the virus.  Both sides will demonize China.  Pennsylvania Governor Wolf has announced that 

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Saturday, March 7, 2020

Lessons from Super Tuesday: Health Care in the Deep South

The Democratic Presidential race has changed radically since the South Carolina Primary.  As a Bernie Sanders supporter I was so hopeful for him to have a strong showing.  The outcome was very sobering.  I thought I would take a look at the exit poll data from SC and other states from Super Tuesday on the issue of Sanders' Medicare for All (M4A) proposal.

SC
Support
Oppose
AL
Support
Oppose
VA
Support
Oppose
49%
46%
51%
43%
52%
45%
Biden
44%
55%
Biden
50%
76%
Biden
42%
67%
Sanders
29%
12%
Sanders
27%
5%
Sanders
33%
12%
TN
Support
Oppose
NC
Support
Oppose
TX
Support
Oppose
53%
43%
55%
41%
64%
33%
Biden
32%
51%
Biden
34%
54%
Biden
25%
46%
Sanders
38%
9%
Sanders
36%
12%
Sanders
39%
13%

South Carolina and the five southern Super Tuesday states are summarized in the above tables.  The numbers right below "Support" and "Oppose" are the percentage of primary voters who either support or oppose the statement "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?"  

In South Carolina, it was favored by 49% to 46%.  Biden beat Sanders 44% to 29% of those who support M4A.  Biden beat Sanders 55% to 12% among those who oppose M4A.  Similar patterns were found in Alabama and Virginia.  In Tennessee, North Carolina, and Texas, Sanders did slightly better than Biden among those who support M4A and was trounced by Biden among those who did not.  Texas had the strongest support for Sanders proposal but he only bested Biden by 14 points among those who do.

It is also known that older African American voters overwhelmingly supported Biden.  The exit poll does not state whether they were more or less likely to support Medicare for All.  

MA
Support
Oppose
CA
Support
Oppose
VT
Support
Oppose
50%
45%

55%
36%

73%
23%
Biden
23%
46%
Biden
14%
35%
Biden
14%
42%
Sanders
41%
13%
Sanders
48%
14%
Sanders
62%
25%
Warren
27%
14%


Three of the states outside of the deep south where Sanders fared better against Biden are shown above: Massachusetts, California, and Vermont.  In Massachusetts the 69% who supported M4A favored Sanders over Biden by 41% to 23%.  Warren received 27% among those who do.

In California and Vermont, Sanders had strong support among those who support M4A.  Biden won among those who did not.  The lesson from these primaries and the 2016 and 2008 elections is that it is almost impossible to win the Democratic party nomination for president without substantial African American support.  It would be interesting to look at what role support for M4A plays in this.

**Update**

Biden has now won Mississippi, Michigan, and Missouri.  In Mississippi 60% of voters support M4A but 75% of those voted for Biden.  In the video below, Biden said he would veto any M4A bill that came to his desk as president.  In Missouri and Michigan those supported M4A preferred Sanders.



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Deep South Primaries

Sunday, March 1, 2020

Facebook and Twitter Primaries: Super Tuesday Update

Joe Biden had an impressive win in South Carolina yesterday.  The real test for the seven remaining candidates is Super Tuesday in two days with 14 states and two territories voting.  This gives a total of 1,242 pledged delegates at stake or 32% of the total pledged delegates.  I thought I would take a look at the state of the candidates social media following to see how it predicts their Real Clear Politics (RCP) national poll averages.  Super Tuesday is the closest thing to a national primary.  The numbers are below.

Candidate
Feb RCP Avg %
FB Following Feb
Twitter Following Feb
Twitter Audit Feb % Real Followers
Real Twitter Following
Sanders
                    29.6%
5,381,758
         10,866,483
                    67%
         7,280,544
Biden
                    18.8%
1,522,015
           4,208,280
                    85%
         3,577,038
Bloomberg
                    16.4%
901,054
           2,712,036
                    91%
         2,467,953
Warren
                    11.8%
3,371,232
           3,812,696
                    83%
         3,164,538
Buttigieg
                    11.0%
599,102
           1,753,062
                    92%
         1,612,817
Klobuchar
                      4.0%
316,936
               983,100
                    71%
             698,001
Steyer
                      2.6%
508,723
               305,605
                    95%
             290,325
Gabbard
                      1.4%
447,335
               791,422
                    95%
             751,851

Above we can see that Bernie Sanders leads in the polls nationally and in his Facebook and Twitter followings.  The Twitter audit column shows an estimate of the percentage to Twitter Followings are real (ie not bots). The last column shows the estimate or the real number of Twitter followers.  Bernie Sanders does have a low percentage of real followers but still leads in the overall number of real followers.  Tom Steyer is included even though he dropped out of the race yesterday.  The graph below shows how Twitter followings are associated with national support.  



The R squared statistics shows the percentage of the variability in the poll averages that is accounted by the variability in the twitter following.  This value is 0.8546 or 85%.  In January, this relationship accounted for 51% of the variability in the poll averages.  This was mostly due to Biden having high poll averages but low a Twitter following and to there being more candidates in the race.



When I limit the data to real twitter followers, the relationship with the RCP poll average becomes even stronger accounting for 91% of the variability in the RCP average.  If 100% of the variability were accounted for, all of the candidates would fall right on the line in the graph.



Looking at the relationship between the Facebook followings and the RCP averages, a weaker relationship that that with Twitter emerges.  Sixty-three percent of the variability is accounted for which is higher than the 42% in January.  These higher percentages in the Twitter and Facebook relationships suggest greater engagement by consumers of social media with the candidates and its potential influence on voters now that primaries are heating up.

Trump now has a following of 73,242,775 on Twitter (79% real) and 26,091,741 Facebook.  It remains to be seen what impact it will have on the general election.


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