Number of Corona Cases |
Corona Deaths |
|
Length of Life Z-Score |
0.046 |
0.067 |
Quality of Life Z-Score |
0.286 |
0.284 |
Health Behavior Z-Score |
-0.038 |
0.065 |
Clinical Care Z-Score |
-0.059 |
0.114 |
Social Economic Z-Score |
0.301 |
0.412 |
Physical Environment Z-Score |
0.062 |
-0.449 |
Number
of Corona Cases |
1.000 |
0.957 |
Corona
Deaths |
0.957 |
1.000 |
population |
0.841 |
0.792 |
My occupation is a statistician. I tell people it is like "CSI without dead bodies" because analyzing a set of data that has been collected is like doing an autopsy on a deceased person in the sense that I'm trying to learn what I can from what statistics and information are available. Except in this case the information does not involve gross things. For me the research process can be humorous, scary, but always captivating.
Showing posts with label Poverty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poverty. Show all posts
Friday, April 10, 2020
The Number of Corona Virus Cases in Cambria County has Grown Exponentially While Health Behaviors Predict Cases in PA
The number of corona virus cases has grown exponentially in Cambria County. I have been keeping track of the number of cases in a google sheet as can be seen above. The cumulative case line has been following a cubic trend with the polynomial, y = 0.0347x2 - 3051.6x + 7E+07. This equation accounts for 98.5% of the variability in the solid trend line.
**Related Posts**
Two weeks ago I correlated the number of COVID-19 cases at the county level in Pennsylvania with the county health ranking for that county using Poisson regression. This week I thought I would take a look at the submeasures for the rankings with the case and death numbers from April 8. Population numbers for each county were added so that Philadelphia county could be added.
The table above shows the univariate correlations of the submeasures with Philadelphia included. For the number of cases, the quality of life z score (part of the health outcomes ranking) and the social economic z score (with the health factor ranking) were correlated. For the number of deaths, quality of life, social economic, and physical environment (part of health factors) were correlated. Z scores are numbers scaled so that the mean is zero and
For the case numbers, three of the county health ranking submeasures were significantly associated with the outcome along with population. The poisson regression equation is given by:
ln(number of cases) = 4.15 -5.91*(health behavior z-score) + 4.31*(social economic z score) - 0.74*(length of life z score) + 0.000002*(population)
This means that the number of cases increases as the health behavior and length of life z scores improve and (a negative score is better). The number of cases decrease as the social economic z score improves. Ln is the natural logarithm of the number of cases.
For the number of deaths in each county as of April 8, three submeasures were significantly associated with the number of cases. The poisson regression equation is given by:
ln(number of deaths) = -0.14 - 7.97*(health behavior z-score) + 2.83*(social economic z score) + 1.62*(quality of life z score) + 0.000003*(population)
Like the number of cases, the natural logarithm of the predicted number of deaths at the county level increase as the health behavior z score decreases. The predicted number of deaths decrease as the social economic, quality of life z scores, and population decrease.
Adding multiple predictors often leads to variables that were not significant univariately to being significant in a multiple regression model, especially after population is adjusted for. In the graphs above we see that Philadelphia county is an extreme outlier. This is mostly due to its population. Adding population to the model helps to negate its outlier effect.
These submeasures are themselves composites of dozens of county level statistics. The next step is to look at these individual measures and the up to date counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Labels:
Big Data,
corona virus,
Correlational Studies,
data Journalism,
Economics,
Environment,
Epidemiology,
Graphics,
Health Care,
Pennsylvania,
poisson regression,
Poverty,
Statistics
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Top Ten Posts of 2019
As 2019 comes to a close I thought I would imitate other media news outlets and look at the top 10 posts on this site in terms of the number of page views. The majority of the posts came in the early part of this year and in the later part. Posts made before 2019 are included in this list.
This post was on changes in enrollment and in those needing special education services in the Greater Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts. It was posted in November. Enrollment has decreased in all three districts while African-American enrollment has increased in Johnstown.
This post from May of this year presents a documentary on the migratin of African Americans to Johnstown.
1. Differences between Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts in Special Education
This post was on changes in enrollment and in those needing special education services in the Greater Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts. It was posted in November. Enrollment has decreased in all three districts while African-American enrollment has increased in Johnstown.
2. Vote for the Best Nonfiction Books of All Time
This post was made in November 2018 to introduce the poll for the greatest nonfiction book of all time. So far the Origin of Species is leading.3. A Documentary on African Americans in Johnstown
This post from May of this year presents a documentary on the migratin of African Americans to Johnstown.
4. Con Man Carnicella
This post from October looks at the propaganda campaign against the local candidate for Cambria County Commissioner, Jerry Carnicella. He lost.
5. The Civil War in a Larger International Historical Context
This post is from May 2011 the oldest post on this list. It talks about how the conflict in the US is reflected in similar conflicts in Italy, Germany and Japan.
6. A look at the Number of PA Abuser Priests Identified by the Grand Jury
7. Holiday Poverty Estimates from the Census Bureau: Johnstown SD Ranks 84th Nationally
8. The 1st Anniversary of My Online Nonfiction Poll
This post is a follow up to the second ranked post on this list. It is from November and gives the results up to Nov 24 of this year.
9. Does playing in the NFL help a head coach? Not in the Playoffs
10. Holiday Poverty Estimates for Johnstown and Cambria County
This is the next to last post of the year. It was a follow up post to the seventh most popular post on this list. It looked at trends in the city, county, state, and US in poverty and median income. The gap between the county and the city and the state and the US is growing.For this list, two of the posts were made before 2019 and six of them were on the City of Johnstown and the surrounding area. Of the eight posts made this year, three were made in the first half of the year. This blog almost completely covers the 2010s. In September I will have the tenth anniversary post looking at it's all time most popular posts.
**Related Posts**
The 5th Anniversary of CSI wo DB: Top 25 All Time Posts
CSI senza cadaveri
Labels:
Announcement,
Blogging,
Catholic Church,
Child Abuse,
google analytics,
PodCamp,
Poverty,
Sports
Friday, December 27, 2019
Holiday Poverty Estimates for Johnstown and Cambria County
In addition to the school district estimates that I posted about two weeks ago the Census bureau has produced estimates for every county and municipality in the US just in time for the holidays. For Johnstown the poverty rate increased to 38.7% while it decreased slightly for Cambria County, Pennsylvania and the US. This is according to the federal definition of poverty which is about $30,000 for a family of four.
The census bureau also produced median household income estimates for the same counties and municipalities in the US for 2018. For Johnstown there was a slight increase of $658 in the median income which is still well below the county, state, and US medians. This increase was within the $1,770 margin of error so we must conclude that there is really negligible change in the median income.
The median for Cambria County did decrease in 2018 by $844 in 2018 while the state and US medians increased by $1,786 and $1,601 respectively. The PA and US increases were outside their margins of error while Johnstown's and Cambria's were not.
On Christmas Eve PBS Frontline rebroadcast a documentary on the effect of poverty on children in the US. It's not just a Johnstown problem. Unfortunately they do not allow me to embed it here but you can watch it at the link here. Merry Christmas to all.
**Related Posts**The median for Cambria County did decrease in 2018 by $844 in 2018 while the state and US medians increased by $1,786 and $1,601 respectively. The PA and US increases were outside their margins of error while Johnstown's and Cambria's were not.
On Christmas Eve PBS Frontline rebroadcast a documentary on the effect of poverty on children in the US. It's not just a Johnstown problem. Unfortunately they do not allow me to embed it here but you can watch it at the link here. Merry Christmas to all.
Holiday Poverty Estimates from the Census Bureau: Johnstown SD Ranks 84th Nationally
The Greater Johnstown School District is Highest in PA in Poverty for Ages 5-17
Clairton HS vs. Bishop Guilfoyle HS: A Contrast in Poverty
Labels:
Census,
Christmas,
Food Stamps,
Johnstown,
Pennsylvania,
Poverty
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Holiday Poverty Estimates from the Census Bureau: Johnstown SD Ranks 84th Nationally.
The Census Bureau has come out with its annual Small Income and Poverty Estimates for each county and school District in the US for 2018. The above graph shows the 20 year trend in estimates of the percentage of students in poverty for the US, Pennsylvania, Greater Johnstown (GJSD), Ferndale, Richland, and Westmont school districts. These districts are chosen as they are adjacent to GJSD. The top 10 school districts in terms of poverty rate in Pennsylvania are listed below.
Greater Johnstown once again has the highest poverty rate for children ages 5-17 in the state out of 500 school districts at 46.7%. Nationally it ranks 84th out of 13,207 school districts or in the 99th percentile in poverty. The above graph shows that this trend has been increasing for GJSD. The rates for the US, Pennsylvania, and the other school districts have remained relatively stable over the last 10 years by comparison.
The Ferndale SD is also above the state (15.9%) and national (17.0%) rates for 2018 at 26.2%. Richland and Westmont were virtually identical at 10.7% and 11.0% respectively. Next I will comment on overall poverty trends for Cambria County and the City of Johnstown. The 2020 census is coming soon and they are looking to hire census takers. Whether or not you want to work on it you should participate to ensure that they will have the best possible estimates of the US, state and local populations.
District Name
|
Grade range of responsibility
|
Total Population
|
Relevant Ages 5 to 17 Population
|
Relevant Ages 5 to 17 in Families
in Poverty
|
Relevant age 5 to 17 Ratio %
|
Greater Johnstown School District
(PA)
|
KG-12
|
25,338
|
3,392
|
1,584
|
46.7
|
Aliquippa School District (PA)
|
KG-12
|
9,117
|
1,249
|
582
|
46.6
|
Farrell Area School District (PA)
|
PK-12
|
5,299
|
811
|
356
|
43.9
|
Harrisburg City School District
(PA)
|
KG-12
|
51,186
|
8,835
|
3,620
|
41
|
Clairton City School District (PA)
|
KG-12
|
6,771
|
857
|
344
|
40.1
|
Salisbury-Elk Lick School District
(PA)
|
KG-12
|
2,824
|
461
|
185
|
40.1
|
New Castle Area School District
(PA)
|
PK-12
|
23,013
|
3,272
|
1,228
|
37.5
|
Sharon City School District (PA)
|
KG-12
|
13,299
|
2,003
|
752
|
37.5
|
Duquesne City School District (PA)
|
PK-12
|
5,540
|
939
|
349
|
37.2
|
Steelton-Highspire School District
(PA)
|
KG-12
|
8,672
|
1,498
|
552
|
36.8
|
Why do African Americans live to be 64.8 years in Cambria County?
The Greater Johnstown School District is Highest in PA in Poverty for Ages 5-17
Education and Race Account for Outliers in Trump's Vote at the State and PA County Level
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