Showing posts with label Poverty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poverty. Show all posts

Friday, April 10, 2020

The Number of Corona Virus Cases in Cambria County has Grown Exponentially While Health Behaviors Predict Cases in PA

 

The number of corona virus cases has grown exponentially in Cambria County.  I have been keeping track of the number of cases in a google sheet as can be seen above.  The cumulative case line has been following a cubic trend with the polynomial, y = 0.0347x2 - 3051.6x + 7E+07.  This equation accounts for 98.5% of the variability in the solid trend line.  

Two weeks ago I correlated the number of COVID-19 cases at the county level in Pennsylvania with the county health ranking for that county using Poisson regression.  This week I thought I would take a look at the submeasures for the rankings with the case and death numbers from April 8.  Population numbers for each county were added so that Philadelphia county could be added.

Number of Corona Cases

Corona Deaths 

Length of Life   Z-Score

0.046

0.067

Quality of Life Z-Score

0.286

0.284

Health Behavior Z-Score

-0.038

0.065

Clinical Care   Z-Score

-0.059

0.114

Social Economic   Z-Score

0.301

0.412

Physical Environment Z-Score

0.062

-0.449

Number of Corona Cases

1.000

0.957

Corona Deaths 

0.957

1.000

population

0.841

0.792


The table above shows the univariate correlations of the submeasures with Philadelphia included.  For the number of cases, the quality of life z score (part of the health outcomes ranking) and the social economic z score (with the health factor ranking) were correlated.  For the number of deaths, quality of life, social economic, and physical environment (part of health factors) were correlated. Z scores are numbers scaled so that the mean is zero and 

For the case numbers, three of the county health ranking submeasures were significantly associated with the outcome along with population.  The poisson regression equation is given by:

ln(number of cases) = 4.15 -5.91*(health behavior z-score)  + 4.31*(social economic z score) - 0.74*(length of life z score) + 0.000002*(population)

This means that the number of cases increases as the health behavior and length of life z scores improve and (a negative score is better).  The number of cases decrease as the social economic z score improves.  Ln is the natural logarithm of the number of cases.

For the number of deaths in each county as of April 8, three submeasures were significantly associated with the number of cases.  The poisson regression equation is given by:

ln(number of deaths) = -0.14 - 7.97*(health behavior z-score) + 2.83*(social economic z score) + 1.62*(quality of life z score) + 0.000003*(population)

Like the number of cases, the natural logarithm of the predicted number of deaths at the county level increase as the health behavior z score decreases.  The predicted number of deaths decrease as the social economic, quality of life z scores, and population decrease.  




Adding multiple predictors often leads to variables that were not significant univariately to being significant in a multiple regression model, especially after population is adjusted for.  In the graphs above we see that Philadelphia county is an extreme outlier.  This is mostly due to its population.  Adding population to the model helps to negate its outlier effect.

These submeasures are themselves composites of dozens of county level statistics.  The next step is to look at these individual measures and the up to date counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

**Related Posts**

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Top Ten Posts of 2019

As 2019 comes to a close I thought I would imitate other media news outlets and look at the top 10 posts on this site in terms of the number of page views.  The majority of the posts came in the early part of this year and in the later part.  Posts made before 2019 are included in this list.

1. 


This post was on changes in enrollment and in those needing special education services in the Greater Johnstown, Westmont, and Richland School Districts.  It was posted in November.  Enrollment has decreased in all three districts while African-American enrollment has increased in Johnstown.





2. 

This post was made in November 2018 to introduce the poll for the greatest nonfiction book of all time.  So far the Origin of Species is leading.


3. 



This post from May of this year presents a documentary on the migratin of African Americans to Johnstown.


4. 



This post from October looks at the propaganda campaign against the local candidate for Cambria County Commissioner, Jerry Carnicella.  He lost.











5.  


This post is from May 2011 the oldest post on this list.  It talks about how the conflict in the US is reflected in similar conflicts in Italy, Germany and Japan.








6.  

I took a look at the numbers of abuser priests identified by Pennsylvania grand juries and adjusting them for the size of the populations that they serve in each of their respective Dioceses.  Cambria County had by far the most adjusting for population.





7.  

This post from a few weeks ago showed how endemic the problem of poverty has become in the Greater Johnstown School District (GJSD) compared to the neighboring districts of Westmont, Richland, and Ferndale.  Nationally it ranks 84th out of 13,207 school districts.




8.  


This post is a follow up to the second ranked post on this list.  It is from November and gives the results up to Nov 24 of this year.











9.  


This is the first post of 2019.  It compared elite coaches in the NFL who played in the NFL (ie. Chuck Noll, Don Shula, and Tom Landry) to ones who did not (Vince Lombardi, Bill Belichick, and Jimmy Johnson).  It found that they were equal in the regular season but the one who did not play had better records in the playoffs and won more championships.

10.  

This is the next to last post of the year.  It was a follow up post to the seventh most popular post on this list.  It looked at trends in the city, county, state, and US in poverty and median income.  The gap between the county and the city and the state and the US is growing.





For this list, two of the posts were made before 2019 and six of them were on the City of Johnstown and the surrounding area.  Of the eight posts made this year, three were made in the first half of the year.  This blog almost completely covers the 2010s.  In September I will have the tenth anniversary post looking at it's all time most popular posts.

**Related Posts**



CSI senza cadaveri

Friday, December 27, 2019

Holiday Poverty Estimates for Johnstown and Cambria County

In addition to the school district estimates that I posted about two weeks ago the Census bureau has produced estimates for every county and municipality in the US just in time for the holidays.  For Johnstown the poverty rate increased to 38.7% while it decreased slightly for Cambria County, Pennsylvania and the US. This is according to the federal definition of poverty which is about $30,000 for a family of four.


The census bureau also produced median household income estimates for the same counties and municipalities in the US for 2018.  For Johnstown there was a slight increase of $658 in the median income which is still well below the county, state, and US medians. This increase was within the $1,770 margin of error so we must conclude that there is really negligible change in the median income.

The median for Cambria County did decrease in 2018 by $844 in 2018 while the state and US medians increased by $1,786 and $1,601 respectively.  The PA and US increases were outside their margins of error while Johnstown's and Cambria's were not.

On Christmas Eve PBS Frontline rebroadcast a documentary on the effect of poverty on children in the US.  It's not just a Johnstown problem.  Unfortunately they do not allow me to embed it here but you can watch it at the link here.  Merry Christmas to all.

**Related Posts**



Clairton HS vs. Bishop Guilfoyle HS: A Contrast in Poverty

Saturday, December 14, 2019

Holiday Poverty Estimates from the Census Bureau: Johnstown SD Ranks 84th Nationally.


The Census Bureau has come out with its annual Small Income and Poverty Estimates for each county and school District in the US for 2018.  The above graph shows the 20 year trend in estimates of the percentage of students in poverty for the US, Pennsylvania, Greater Johnstown (GJSD), Ferndale, Richland, and Westmont school districts.  These districts are chosen as they are adjacent to GJSD.  The top 10 school districts in terms of poverty rate in Pennsylvania are listed below.

Greater Johnstown once again has the highest poverty rate for children ages 5-17 in the state out of 500 school districts at 46.7%.  Nationally it ranks 84th out of 13,207 school districts or in the 99th percentile in poverty.  The above graph shows that this trend has been increasing for GJSD.  The rates for the US, Pennsylvania, and the other school districts have remained relatively stable over the last 10 years by comparison.  

The Ferndale SD is also above the state (15.9%) and national (17.0%) rates for 2018 at 26.2%.  Richland and Westmont were virtually identical at 10.7% and 11.0% respectively.  Next I will comment on overall poverty trends for Cambria County and the City of Johnstown.  The 2020 census is coming soon and they are looking to hire census takers.  Whether or not you want to work on it you should participate to ensure that they will have the best possible estimates of the US, state and local populations.


District Name
Grade range of responsibility
Total Population
Relevant Ages 5 to 17 Population
Relevant Ages 5 to 17 in Families in Poverty
Relevant age 5 to 17 Ratio %
Greater Johnstown School District (PA)
KG-12
25,338
3,392
1,584
46.7
Aliquippa School District (PA)
KG-12
9,117
1,249
582
46.6
Farrell Area School District (PA)
PK-12
5,299
811
356
43.9
Harrisburg City School District (PA)
KG-12
51,186
8,835
3,620
41
Clairton City School District (PA)
KG-12
6,771
857
344
40.1
Salisbury-Elk Lick School District (PA)
KG-12
2,824
461
185
40.1
New Castle Area School District (PA)
PK-12
23,013
3,272
1,228
37.5
Sharon City School District (PA)
KG-12
13,299
2,003
752
37.5
Duquesne City School District (PA)
PK-12
5,540
939
349
37.2
Steelton-Highspire School District (PA)
KG-12
8,672
1,498
552
36.8
**Related Posts**