Friday, July 24, 2020
Some pundits have written off Trump's reelection chances due to his handling. They often point to the results of one poll to reinforce that conclusion. I would argue that it is better to look at the aggregate of polls to see trends.
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls includes Republican polling firms like Rasmussen, neutral firms like Politico and Quinnipiac, and Democratic firms like Change Research. In the graph above we see that the RCP average for Trump's approval rating has steadily declined from an all time high of 47.3% at the beginning of the Coronavirus pandemic to 42.2% today. This number is still higher than Trump's all time low rating of 37.1% on December 17, 2017.
Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com website estimates his current approval rating to be 40.4%. This number is still higher than their all time low estimate of 36.4% on December 17, 2017. Silver's group uses a different than RCP that you can read about here. In both poll estimates, Trumps approval rating has never been above 50%.
FiveThirtyEight also provides a comparison of Trump's approval rating the past 12 Presidents at the same point in their Presidencies (1282 days) going back to Harry Truman. Of these past 12 Presidents, only three had approval ratings lower than Trump's and this point: Truman (39.6%), Carter (33.9%), and George H.W. Bush (36.7%). Truman managed to win his election bid while Bush and Carter lost. Ford was in office for fewer than 1282 days and he lost as well. The other Presidents either won their reelection bids or left office before running again.
RCP's poll average of national polls has Biden leading Trump 49.6% to 40.9% while FiveThirtyEight has Biden up 50.0% to 42.0%. One should always be careful about making predictions about the outcome of the November election this early. However it is pretty clear that he faces a tough bid to win this year. In the month of June 2016, Clinton had a lead of 5.7% over Trump while Biden had a lead of 7.7% over him in June 2020. He could still eek out an electoral college win with his loyal supporters.
** Related Posts**
Friday, January 14, 2011
In my previous post, The US and Republicans Want Health Care Law Repealed....?, I discussed how Rasmussen Polling makes their crosstabulation and demographic information available only to those who pay them $19.95/month. Their press release and the wording of their questions implied that they restricted their samples to those with insurance only.
This week Rasmussen released a poll where reference to the insured sample is removed from the title of their press release and the wording of the questions (listed below) no longer implies this as well. According to the press release, the survey is more in line with other polling with a 54-46% split in favor of repeal (see Real Clear Politics Health Care Polling Page) but, as with other most polls, does not say if this is because the bill is too conservative (ie. no public option or single payer alternatives) or too liberal (preventing insurance companies from dropping patients due to preexisting conditions). I would love to claim credit for their including the uninsured (estimated to be 50 million or 17% of the US population) in their sample but, as they still only make their full poll with demographics and crosstabulations available for a price, I cannot be sure if this is really the case. The full press release can be read below.
National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted January 7-8, 2011
By Rasmussen Reports
1* Will the health care plan passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama be good for the country or bad for the country?
2* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?
3* If the health care bill is repealed would that be good for the economy, bad for the economy or would it have no impact on the economy?
4* If the health care bill is repealed would that lead to the creation of more jobs?
5* How likely is it that the Health Care bill will be repealed?
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
POLL: Dislike of healthcare law crosses party lines, 1 in 4 Dems want repeal - TheHill.com (But Doesn't Ask Why)