Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

The Pandemic's 5th Wave

There have been many news reports on Coronavirus surges in the U.S. recently, especially among the unvaccinated in the south.  The graph above shows that Cambria County is experiencing its 5th surge in COVID-19 cases.  The first surge was in the Spring of 2020.  The second was from late July to early August of last year.  The third was after Donald Trump's visits to the area (by Jr and Sr) from October to December and was by far the worst.  The fourth occurred from mid March to mid April of this year.  

 

We are now seeing a 5th surge following super-spreader events such as Thunder in the Valley.  The surge began on July 10 when there was a 7 day new case average of 0.71 cases per day to an average of 10.14 cases per day as of this writing.  The last death in the county was reported on July 1.  There have been 35 straight days with no new reported deaths since then.  The above graph shows that the number of cases hospitalized have decreased to a low of 3 on July 19 but has since risen to 12 as of this writing. As of yet there has been no corresponding increase in the number of cases on a ventilator.   

The graph at the left shows that a similar pattern is occurring in the state of Pennsylvania in the number of new cases.  The graph below shows that there has not yet been a corresponding increase in the number of deaths.  If the rise in the number of cases continues to accelerate, this luck will eventually run out. 

The vaccine rollout being given to the most vulnerable populations first makes it unlikely that the surge in cases and deaths will reach the awful levels seen last fall and winter. The slowing vaccination rate means that smaller surges can happen.  I have no information on how many new cases are due to the delta variant in the county.  The delta variant is not resistant to the vaccines.  The nightmare scenario is that a new variant could evolve that is resistant to the vaccines.  This would put us back to where we started with the pandemic.  Get the shots.


**Related Posts**

100 COVID-19 Deaths in Cambria County Since the Candlelight Vigil



Tuesday, May 25, 2021

PBS Program on Data and Pandemics

PBS has a good series on how medicine has learned to fight pandemics.  This particular episode focuses on how data is used to understand and limit pandemics.  It starts with how William Farr used data to track a cholera outbreak.  I've embedded this episode here for your enjoyment and information.

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Income and Life Expectancy. What does it Tell Us About US?



Thursday, February 11, 2021

Size of PA County Elderly Population Predicts Smaller Nursing Home COVID-19 Mortality

This week I thought I would take a look at mortality in nursing homes (or Long Term Care Facilities (LTCF)) in Pennsylvania.  Statewide, nursing home deaths account for 52.1% of the total coronavirus deaths.  Looking at the county level there is considerable variability in the rates where the 10 counties with the highest rates are seen below.  The rates for this group rage from 115.8% for Forest county to 67.2% for Delaware County.  Forest county actually has 3 more LTCF deaths than total deaths with one facility.  This suggests that at least 3 of their residents reside outside the county.  You can see the full list of counties here.

Facility County

Number of Facilities with Cases

Number of Cases Among Residents

Number of Cases Among Employees

Number of Deaths in LTCF

Total Deaths in the County

% of death in LTCF

Case Mortality in LTCF

FOREST

1

121

26

22

19

115.8%

15.0%

ERIE

35

1354

717

287

363

79.1%

13.9%

MCKEAN

9

372

110

47

60

78.3%

9.8%

CENTRE

16

675

146

155

203

76.4%

18.9%

BUTLER

29

1421

156

257

350

73.4%

16.3%

LACKAWANNA

35

1423

295

290

395

73.4%

16.9%

LYCOMING

19

922

283

165

232

71.1%

13.7%

MONTGOMERY

111

4723

186

1026

1456

70.5%

20.9%

CARBON

7

407

48

95

138

68.8%

20.9%

DELAWARE

59

3197

871

796

1184

67.2%

19.6%

The bottom 10 counties are listed below.  The percentage of deaths in the in LTCFs for this group rage from 35.7% in Sullivan County to 15.0% in Potter County.  Surprisingly, Philadelphia county is in this bottom tier with 26.1% of their deaths in LTCFs.  Another way of looking at mortality in LTCFs is the case mortality or the % of cases who have died.  Philadelphia ranks 11th in the state on this measure with Pike county ranking 1st at 27.0% and Cameron County ranking last at 4.3%.

Facility County

Number of Facilities with Cases

Number of Cases Among Residents

Number of Cases Among Employees

Number of Deaths in LTCF

Total Deaths in the County

% of death in LTCF

Case Mortality in LTCF

SULLIVAN

3

94

13

5

14

35.7%

4.7%

WAYNE

5

88

19

20

58

34.5%

18.7%

BEDFORD

5

269

29

43

126

34.1%

14.4%

FRANKLIN

26

799

94

106

313

33.9%

11.9%

CAMERON

1

36

10

2

7

28.6%

4.3%

SNYDER

2

124

31

20

73

27.4%

12.9%

PHILADELPHIA

85

4222

16

782

3001

26.1%

18.5%

ELK

3

122

50

8

34

23.5%

4.7%

CLINTON

6

112

48

9

53

17.0%

5.6%

POTTER

3

45

15

3

20

15.0%

5.0%


I looked at the percentage of the population in each county over the age of 65 and found some interesting patterns.  For the correlation with % of deaths in LTCFs, as the proportion of the population over 65 increases the % of deaths decreases as seen with the graph below.  Forest county is an outlier and is labeled green in the scatterplot.  With Forest county included, this relationship accounts for 6% of the variability in the data.  When Forest county is excluded, the relationship accounts for 11.6% of the variability in the data and is still negative.  I don't have a good explanation for this but will investigate further.


I then looked at the correlation between case mortality and the % of the county over 65.  This relationship was also negative accounting for 11.3% of the variability.  Pike county is a mild outlier.  With Pike excluded, this relationship accounts for 16.6% of the variability.  This pattern is similar to the one with the percentage of deaths in the county.  

 

Case mortality and % of deaths in LTCFs are positively associated but not strongly accounting for 15.3% of the variability.  There may be stronger relations ships among the variables not considered yet.  There also may be variables at the facility level to which I do not have access.  Investigating will continue.

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