Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Friday, July 1, 2022

Post Roe Reversal and Cassidy Hutchinson Polls on Trump and the GOP

It has been a week since SCROTUS reversed their Roe vs. Wade decision on abortion and made other revolting decisions on guns, school prayer and the environment to name a few. It has also been about 5 days since former White House aide Cassady Hutchinson gave damning testimony on Trump's role in the Jan 6 attack on the capitol. While there is a paucity of polling during the 4th of July holiday, there is enough to draw some conclusions on election prospects in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 election.

Emerson has come out with a poll on the 2024 GOP nomination for President after the Roe decision and the Hutchinson. It shows Donald Trump in the driver's seat with 55% of the vote followed by Ron DeSantis with 20% and Mike Pence with 9%. A Politico/Morning Consult poll taken after the Roe decision but before the Hutchinson testimony found a similar result with 51% for Trump, 23% for DeSantis and 8% for Pence. The same Emerson poll also showed Trump ahead of Biden 44% to 39% if the election were held today. Both polling organizations used samples of registered voters rather then likely voters.















The above graph shows how Real Clear Politics Polling Average of Trump's favorability ratings have changed since he announced his run for President in 2015. His ratings did drop from 42.5% on Jan 6 to 37.2% on Jan 18. They have risen more or less steadily since then to a post presidency high of 45.8% on April 24 of this year. Since the hearings began and the Roe reversal happened his favorability ratings have declined by 2% to 43.8% as of June 29th, 3 days after Hutchinson's testimony.














Above is the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for the Generic Congressional vote. It shows that the Democrats had the advantage before November of last year and the GOP took over. Since then the GOPs advantage over the Dems peaked at 4.7% on April 29. It decreased to an advantage of 1.9% on May 29th. After the Jan 6th hearings began on June 10, the numbers for both parties declined with the gap between them increasing to only 2.8% on June 22. After the Roe reversal and Hutchinson's testimony, the gap between the parties shrunk to 2.2%.

The generic congressional vote is a crude measure of how the Congressional and Senate races will go. In 2020, the Democrats had a 6.8% advantage in the polling average but only received 3.1% more votes than the GOP. Of course gerrymandering can be a confounding variable. Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight gives the GOP an 87% chance of taking control of the House and a 53% chance of taking the Senate. They also predict that the leading Republican on the Jan 6 committee, Liz Cheyney, will lose to her primary challenger in August.



**Update**


A new poll Generic Congressional Poll From Harvard has come out showing Democrats and Republicans tied at 50% each. This brings the Real Clear Politics average down to 2.0%. Trump's favorability rating in this poll is 42% bringing this RCP average down to 43.6%. This poll also shows Trump in the drivers seat for the 2024 nomination with 56% compared to DeSantis with 16% and Pence with 7%. Is this the start of a trend? Stay tuned.

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Pennsylvania's Primary: Stakes Higher Because of Roe v. Wade



Friday, December 10, 2021

PA Health Behavior Measures Correlate More with Trump % of the vote than with COVID Case Mortality

 

Last week I posted on COVID Case Mortality and County Health Ranking (CHR) measures.  I also posted that there was a stronger correlation between the health behaviors and Trump's % of the vote than with COVID case mortality.  This week I will look at which individual county statistics used by CHR are the best predictors of Trump's % of the vote.
















Thirty-one out of the 48 county health rankings statistics were significantly correlated with Trump's % of the vote in the 67 Pennsylvania Counties.  The variable with the strongest univariate correlation was the % of the population who were smokers in each county.  This relationship accounted for 54% of the variability in Trump's vote in 2020. This relationship can be seen in the graph above.  Philadelphia is an outlier in this model.

Trump % of the vote = 38.29 + 2.03*(% Smokers) - 0.24*(% access to exercise) +                  0.55*(Social Assn) - 0.03*(Chlamydia) - 2.16*(Housing problems)

For the other county level statistics, I entered the variables with the strongest correlations into a multiple regression model.  Variables that were significant were kept into the model.  Five variables were settled on accounting for 91.9% of the variability in Trump's vote.  The model is summarized in the equation above in italics.  

The 38.29 value is the predicted value for Trump's vote % in PA if all of the predictor variables have a value of zero.  Percent smokers has a regression coefficient of 2.03.  This means that for every 1% increase in the percent of smokers, there is a predicted 2.03% increase in Trump's vote.  The other predictor variables will be summarized below.
















The univariate relationship between the % of the county with easy access to exercise opportunities and Trump's vote is presented in the above graph.  In the multiple model there is a predicted decrease of 0.24% in Trump's vote for every 1% increase in access to exercise opportunities.  Philadelphia county is less of an outlier in this model.  Univariately, this relationship accounts for 45.1% of the variability in Trump's vote.
















The rate of the number of social membership organizations per 100,000 for each PA county is compared to Trump's % of the vote in the graph above.  In the multiple regression model, there is a predicted 0.55% increase in Trump's vote for each unit increase in the social association rate.  Univariately, this relationship accounts for 42.6% of the variability in Trump's vote.  Dauphin County is an outlier for this relationship with a relatively high social association rate 18.5/100,000 but only 45% of the vote for Trump.


The rate of chlamydia per 100,000 for each PA county is negatively associated with with Trump's % of the vote accounting for 47% of the variance.  In the multiple regression model, for every unit increase in the chlamydia rate, there is a predicted 0.03% decrease in Trump's vote.  Philadelphia county is an influential county for this relationship but not an outlier.
  


























The last variable in the model is the % of the county with housing problems for each county.  In the multiple regression model, for every 1% increase in this variable, there is a predicted 2.16% decrease in Trump's % of the vote.  Univariately, housing problems account for 48.2% of the variability in Trump's vote. Bedford County may be an outlier.  

These five variables account for 91.9% of the variance in Trump's vote when combined in a multiple regression model.  One should always be careful about assuming a cause and effect relationship between variables that are correlated.  There are always potential unknown variables which can explain this relationship.  These variables were the most robust when entered into the model and do not have a strong association with each other.  The five variables in this model can be ruled out as alternative explanations for each other.

**Update**

Some have asked me about the correlation coefficients for the univariate relationships in this model.  If one takes the square root of the r-squared statistic for % smokers (0.5452) we get a correlation coefficient 0.738  which is much stronger than any of the correlations for COVID case mortality.  For access to exercise opportunities the coefficient is -0.671.  For social association rates, it is 0.673.  For chlamydia rate, it is -0.685.  For housing problems, it is 0.694.

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Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Hate Groups do not Predict Trump % in 2020. It did in 2016

The Southern Poverty Law Center has come out with it's 2020 hate map showing the concentration of hate groups in the US as seen above.  The total number of groups that they follow nationally went down in 2020 to 838 from 940 in 2019.  The high point for hate groups during the Trump years was 2018 with 1,020.  You can see my summary of the numbers here


As before, I adjusted the number of hate groups in each state and expressed it as hate groups per million and correlated it with Trump's support in that state for that year.  As in previous years, the District of Columbia led the nation with 26.9 groups per million but he only received 5.4% of the vote in that state so it was excluded from the above graph.  Montana had the highest hate group rate at 5.61 per million.  New Mexico had the lowest at 0.48 per million.  Pennsylvania's raw number of hate groups was unchanged at 36 from 2019.

The above graph shows a weak positive correlation for Hate Group concentration in 2020 and Trump's % of the vote in last year's election accounting for 5.6% of the variability in his vote.  In 2016, hate group concentration accounted for 20.1% of the variability in his vote that year.  This correlation was almost twice as strong in 2016.  The weaker correlation could be due to greater minority mobilization in 2020.




























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Sunday, January 17, 2021

Chicken's Coming to Roost for Trump?

On Jan 6 I posted my reaction to the shocking events at the U.S. Capitol that day.  I wondered what would happen to Trump's approval ratings as his other antics have had minimal effect on them throughout his presidency.  Now it seems like I have an answer now that there are three days left for him in power.


























The graph above shows a sharp drop in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average in approval rating polls since Jan 6.  Trump's approval rating was 44.2% that day.  Today it is 39.7%, the sharpest decline in his term.  This rating is still 2.7% ahead of the lowest his average approval rating has been back in December 2017.  

Rasmussen (a Republican polling firm) estimates his approval rating to be 48% which is by far the highest of any of the major polling firms.  They limit their sample size to likely voters where the other firms sample from all adult Americans or from registered voters.


  

Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight estimates his average approval rating to be 38.7% which is 1% lower than the RCP average.  They weight their polls by the their quality based on sample size and bias in the selection.  They rate some polls such as ABC News/Washington Post as A grade and others such as Economist/Yougov as B.  Rasmussen is rated as C+.  Otherwise the trend in the poll average for FiveThirtyEight mirrors that of the RCP.  

It remains to be seen what will happen in the upcoming impeachment trial of Trump.  Sixty seven Senators will have to vote to convict him to bar him from ever holding office again.  The decline in his approval ratings may give 17 GOP Senators the courage to vote with the 50 Democrats to do so as it gave 10 GOP House members the courage to break with the rest of their party to impeach.  

Nixon's approval rating was 25.1% before he resigned when GOP senators told him the game was up. Democracy Now has a discussion on what happens next for Trump with historian Tim Snyder.  He does face state level investigations for which he cannot be pardoned either by himself or by his successor.  Snyder says he believes the best option for Trump would be to leave the country.


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Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Where do We Stand in 2021?

Happy New Year all.  I started writing this post last night as the numbers were trickling in from the Georgia runoffs last night.  I am surprised as anyone about the events of today.  I admit to finding it frightening that Trump's supporters would resort to occupying the U.S. capitol building.  We knew that this was a possibility as Trump refused to accept the results of the election.  WJAC-TV reports that over 500 people from Cambria, Blair, Somerset, and Bedford counties went to the rally.  The chair of the Cambria County Republican Party, Jackie Kulback, says that they left before the violence began.  Even if it were a peaceful protest they likely were exposed to COVID-19 and brought it back to their homes.


Since the election that Biden won, Trump's approval rating hardly changed from 45.9% to 44.1% today.  How sad it would be if they hardly change after today's events.  It would take about 4 day to a week before we know what impact it has had on his approval ratings.

Warnock and Ossoff have won their Senate races.  This means that the Democrats will technically be in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives once Biden and Harris take office on January 20.  The 50-50 split in the Senate (with Harris as the tiebreaking vote) gives the Democrats more leverage but the Republicans, with Mitch McConnell's leadership, still have the filibuster.  They can use it to block any meaningful legislation with only 40 votes.  

In 2013 McConnell used the filibuster to block a bill banning the use of assault rifles in the wake of the Newtown, CT shooting in which 26 people were killed.  The Democrats had a 54-46 majority at the time and the bill had strong support of the families in Newtown but it didn't matter.  There have 56 mass shootings in the US since then with 445 fatalities according to Mother Jones magazine.

Joe Biden will try to be a return to normalcy President.  Trumpism is unlikely to disappear entirely as it was present before he took office.  Trump's niece Mary says it best:

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Friday, November 20, 2020

The Kardashians of Cambria County

 

Ha ha ha!  Made you look.  There are no Kardashians in Cambria County that I know of.  Do you?

I could make this post about how mortality in Cambria County from COVID-19 has been skyrocketing this month (25 deaths since October 28).  However I thought I would comment on how I had to battle fluff in this county and what happens when what I post challenges the conventional wisdom.

Eleven days ago I posted on how Joe Biden won the city of Johnstown by 80 votes. I thought I would share some of the comments that I received on Facebook on that post.  The names are deleted out of respect.

"I can honestly believe that because the poll workers downtown were shady. They actually said who we were and what political party we were for." 

"PA and Arizona have just pulled the win from Joe and Michigan is right behind . Joe is as of now down to 259 electoral vote and NO LONGER THE PROJECTED WINNER."

"Well seeing there is a lot of freeloaders in Johnstown I’m not surprised." 

"Fake News."

"He won Philly by more than that . So what ?" 

"Bozo Joe didn’t win Johnstown Trump took Cambria County."

"82 out of 74 democrats voted for Biden."

"There ain't no way."

"(Name deleted)...excuse you read something watch the waters the democrats or about to go down in history as the most corrupt party joe biden has just become a suspect of treason in another country so like I said watch the water"

"Prolly had under age or dead people lol."

"I would think that is another johnstown, not pa."

I wonder how many of them actually read my post?

Also about my book, the Johnstown Area Heritage Association has refused to sell my book.  They said that because I discussed the statistics surrounding the abuse of children by Catholic Priests and crime statistics which include sexual assault that it was too explicit for children.  I would argue that their holocaust exhibit is more explicit.  I am waiting for an answer on whether the Johnstown National Flood Memorial will sell my book.  The book has been selling at other places such as Classic Elements, Young Hearts Books and Toys, Chameleon BookstoreSecond Chapter Books in Ligonier and at Made in Somerset County.  I will be having a book signing at AT Merchant on December 5 from noon to 3PM in the Galleria Mall in Johnstown.  Finally you can read an Our Town article on my book here.


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Monday, November 9, 2020

Joe Biden won Johnstown by 80 votes

Biden in Johnstown


Four years ago Donald Trump won Cambria County with 66.8% of the vote.  This year he won the county with 67.9%.  Many observers were shocked that he won by such a large margin.  However when one looks at individual precincts a more complex pattern can emerge.  

In 2017, looked at the precinct data for Johnstown and found that Hillary Clinton won the 20 precincts of the city by 83 votes.  This year I took another look at the precincts in the city and found that Biden won the city again by 80 votes.

Ward

Biden

Trump

Other

Diff

Total

N

%

N

%

N

%

Cambria City

81

46.6%

86

49.4%

7

4.0%

-5

174

Center Town

230

58.2%

159

40.3%

6

1.5%

71

395

18th ward

140

39.1%

207

57.8%

11

3.1%

-67

358

8th ward 1

172

48.9%

173

49.1%

7

2.0%

-1

352

8th ward 3

353

41.2%

485

56.7%

18

2.1%

-132

856

Kernville

150

58.1%

105

40.7%

3

1.2%

45

258

19th ward

208

45.8%

235

51.8%

11

2.4%

-27

454

Old Conemaugh

250

53.8%

208

44.7%

7

1.5%

42

465

Prospect

161

78.9%

42

20.6%

1

0.5%

119

204

7th ward

348

60.1%

224

38.7%

7

1.2%

124

579

21st ward

110

37.2%

183

61.8%

3

1.0%

-73

296

17th ward 1

232

57.1%

169

41.6%

5

1.2%

63

406

17th ward 2

242

48.8%

246

49.6%

8

1.6%

-4

496

17th ward 3

183

46.0%

209

52.5%

6

1.5%

-26

398

17th ward 4

113

44.1%

139

54.3%

4

1.6%

-26

256

20th ward 1

270

43.9%

337

54.8%

8

1.3%

-67

615

20th Ward 2

259

54.0%

215

44.8%

6

1.3%

44

480

Total

3,502

49.7%

3,422

48.6%

118

1.7%

80

7,042


This year there were 17 precincts in the city whereas there were 20 in the city four years ago.  Biden won 7 out of the 17 precincts (highlighted in yellow).  Hillary Clinton won 11 of the 20 precincts.  

When the votes are totaled across the city, Biden won the city by 80 votes out of the 7,042 cast or 1.1%.  This margin is slightly smaller than the margin that Clinton won by (83 out of 6,438 cast or 1.3%).  Biden largest margin was in the seventh ward in terms of the number of votes (124) while for Trump it was in 8th ward number three (132).  Clinton likewise won the 7th ward at 166 while Percentagewise, Biden's best result was in Prospect at 78.9% (it was for Clinton as well at 82.1%) while for Trump it was in the 21st ward at 61.8% (in 2016 he won the 21st with 61.5%).  

There were 118 (1,7% of the total) third party and write ins in the city this year while in 2016 there were 281 in the city (4.4% of the total).  In 2016 there were three third party candidates on the ballot (Green, Constitutional, Libertarian).  This year there was one (Libertarian).

Six hundred and four more people voted this year than in 2016.  The margins in the Trump precincts were closer than in Biden's. The large margins in Biden's precincts were large enough to offset those in the more numerous precincts for Trump.  This city is just as divided as the nation.


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