Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Hate Groups do not Predict Trump % in 2020. It did in 2016

The Southern Poverty Law Center has come out with it's 2020 hate map showing the concentration of hate groups in the US as seen above.  The total number of groups that they follow nationally went down in 2020 to 838 from 940 in 2019.  The high point for hate groups during the Trump years was 2018 with 1,020.  You can see my summary of the numbers here


As before, I adjusted the number of hate groups in each state and expressed it as hate groups per million and correlated it with Trump's support in that state for that year.  As in previous years, the District of Columbia led the nation with 26.9 groups per million but he only received 5.4% of the vote in that state so it was excluded from the above graph.  Montana had the highest hate group rate at 5.61 per million.  New Mexico had the lowest at 0.48 per million.  Pennsylvania's raw number of hate groups was unchanged at 36 from 2019.

The above graph shows a weak positive correlation for Hate Group concentration in 2020 and Trump's % of the vote in last year's election accounting for 5.6% of the variability in his vote.  In 2016, hate group concentration accounted for 20.1% of the variability in his vote that year.  This correlation was almost twice as strong in 2016.  The weaker correlation could be due to greater minority mobilization in 2020.




























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Sunday, January 17, 2021

Chicken's Coming to Roost for Trump?

On Jan 6 I posted my reaction to the shocking events at the U.S. Capitol that day.  I wondered what would happen to Trump's approval ratings as his other antics have had minimal effect on them throughout his presidency.  Now it seems like I have an answer now that there are three days left for him in power.


























The graph above shows a sharp drop in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average in approval rating polls since Jan 6.  Trump's approval rating was 44.2% that day.  Today it is 39.7%, the sharpest decline in his term.  This rating is still 2.7% ahead of the lowest his average approval rating has been back in December 2017.  

Rasmussen (a Republican polling firm) estimates his approval rating to be 48% which is by far the highest of any of the major polling firms.  They limit their sample size to likely voters where the other firms sample from all adult Americans or from registered voters.


  

Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight estimates his average approval rating to be 38.7% which is 1% lower than the RCP average.  They weight their polls by the their quality based on sample size and bias in the selection.  They rate some polls such as ABC News/Washington Post as A grade and others such as Economist/Yougov as B.  Rasmussen is rated as C+.  Otherwise the trend in the poll average for FiveThirtyEight mirrors that of the RCP.  

It remains to be seen what will happen in the upcoming impeachment trial of Trump.  Sixty seven Senators will have to vote to convict him to bar him from ever holding office again.  The decline in his approval ratings may give 17 GOP Senators the courage to vote with the 50 Democrats to do so as it gave 10 GOP House members the courage to break with the rest of their party to impeach.  

Nixon's approval rating was 25.1% before he resigned when GOP senators told him the game was up. Democracy Now has a discussion on what happens next for Trump with historian Tim Snyder.  He does face state level investigations for which he cannot be pardoned either by himself or by his successor.  Snyder says he believes the best option for Trump would be to leave the country.


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Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Where do We Stand in 2021?

Happy New Year all.  I started writing this post last night as the numbers were trickling in from the Georgia runoffs last night.  I am surprised as anyone about the events of today.  I admit to finding it frightening that Trump's supporters would resort to occupying the U.S. capitol building.  We knew that this was a possibility as Trump refused to accept the results of the election.  WJAC-TV reports that over 500 people from Cambria, Blair, Somerset, and Bedford counties went to the rally.  The chair of the Cambria County Republican Party, Jackie Kulback, says that they left before the violence began.  Even if it were a peaceful protest they likely were exposed to COVID-19 and brought it back to their homes.


Since the election that Biden won, Trump's approval rating hardly changed from 45.9% to 44.1% today.  How sad it would be if they hardly change after today's events.  It would take about 4 day to a week before we know what impact it has had on his approval ratings.

Warnock and Ossoff have won their Senate races.  This means that the Democrats will technically be in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives once Biden and Harris take office on January 20.  The 50-50 split in the Senate (with Harris as the tiebreaking vote) gives the Democrats more leverage but the Republicans, with Mitch McConnell's leadership, still have the filibuster.  They can use it to block any meaningful legislation with only 40 votes.  

In 2013 McConnell used the filibuster to block a bill banning the use of assault rifles in the wake of the Newtown, CT shooting in which 26 people were killed.  The Democrats had a 54-46 majority at the time and the bill had strong support of the families in Newtown but it didn't matter.  There have 56 mass shootings in the US since then with 445 fatalities according to Mother Jones magazine.

Joe Biden will try to be a return to normalcy President.  Trumpism is unlikely to disappear entirely as it was present before he took office.  Trump's niece Mary says it best:

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Friday, November 20, 2020

The Kardashians of Cambria County

 

Ha ha ha!  Made you look.  There are no Kardashians in Cambria County that I know of.  Do you?

I could make this post about how mortality in Cambria County from COVID-19 has been skyrocketing this month (25 deaths since October 28).  However I thought I would comment on how I had to battle fluff in this county and what happens when what I post challenges the conventional wisdom.

Eleven days ago I posted on how Joe Biden won the city of Johnstown by 80 votes. I thought I would share some of the comments that I received on Facebook on that post.  The names are deleted out of respect.

"I can honestly believe that because the poll workers downtown were shady. They actually said who we were and what political party we were for." 

"PA and Arizona have just pulled the win from Joe and Michigan is right behind . Joe is as of now down to 259 electoral vote and NO LONGER THE PROJECTED WINNER."

"Well seeing there is a lot of freeloaders in Johnstown I’m not surprised." 

"Fake News."

"He won Philly by more than that . So what ?" 

"Bozo Joe didn’t win Johnstown Trump took Cambria County."

"82 out of 74 democrats voted for Biden."

"There ain't no way."

"(Name deleted)...excuse you read something watch the waters the democrats or about to go down in history as the most corrupt party joe biden has just become a suspect of treason in another country so like I said watch the water"

"Prolly had under age or dead people lol."

"I would think that is another johnstown, not pa."

I wonder how many of them actually read my post?

Also about my book, the Johnstown Area Heritage Association has refused to sell my book.  They said that because I discussed the statistics surrounding the abuse of children by Catholic Priests and crime statistics which include sexual assault that it was too explicit for children.  I would argue that their holocaust exhibit is more explicit.  I am waiting for an answer on whether the Johnstown National Flood Memorial will sell my book.  The book has been selling at other places such as Classic Elements, Young Hearts Books and Toys, Chameleon BookstoreSecond Chapter Books in Ligonier and at Made in Somerset County.  I will be having a book signing at AT Merchant on December 5 from noon to 3PM in the Galleria Mall in Johnstown.  Finally you can read an Our Town article on my book here.


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Monday, November 9, 2020

Joe Biden won Johnstown by 80 votes

Biden in Johnstown


Four years ago Donald Trump won Cambria County with 66.8% of the vote.  This year he won the county with 67.9%.  Many observers were shocked that he won by such a large margin.  However when one looks at individual precincts a more complex pattern can emerge.  

In 2017, looked at the precinct data for Johnstown and found that Hillary Clinton won the 20 precincts of the city by 83 votes.  This year I took another look at the precincts in the city and found that Biden won the city again by 80 votes.

Ward

Biden

Trump

Other

Diff

Total

N

%

N

%

N

%

Cambria City

81

46.6%

86

49.4%

7

4.0%

-5

174

Center Town

230

58.2%

159

40.3%

6

1.5%

71

395

18th ward

140

39.1%

207

57.8%

11

3.1%

-67

358

8th ward 1

172

48.9%

173

49.1%

7

2.0%

-1

352

8th ward 3

353

41.2%

485

56.7%

18

2.1%

-132

856

Kernville

150

58.1%

105

40.7%

3

1.2%

45

258

19th ward

208

45.8%

235

51.8%

11

2.4%

-27

454

Old Conemaugh

250

53.8%

208

44.7%

7

1.5%

42

465

Prospect

161

78.9%

42

20.6%

1

0.5%

119

204

7th ward

348

60.1%

224

38.7%

7

1.2%

124

579

21st ward

110

37.2%

183

61.8%

3

1.0%

-73

296

17th ward 1

232

57.1%

169

41.6%

5

1.2%

63

406

17th ward 2

242

48.8%

246

49.6%

8

1.6%

-4

496

17th ward 3

183

46.0%

209

52.5%

6

1.5%

-26

398

17th ward 4

113

44.1%

139

54.3%

4

1.6%

-26

256

20th ward 1

270

43.9%

337

54.8%

8

1.3%

-67

615

20th Ward 2

259

54.0%

215

44.8%

6

1.3%

44

480

Total

3,502

49.7%

3,422

48.6%

118

1.7%

80

7,042


This year there were 17 precincts in the city whereas there were 20 in the city four years ago.  Biden won 7 out of the 17 precincts (highlighted in yellow).  Hillary Clinton won 11 of the 20 precincts.  

When the votes are totaled across the city, Biden won the city by 80 votes out of the 7,042 cast or 1.1%.  This margin is slightly smaller than the margin that Clinton won by (83 out of 6,438 cast or 1.3%).  Biden largest margin was in the seventh ward in terms of the number of votes (124) while for Trump it was in 8th ward number three (132).  Clinton likewise won the 7th ward at 166 while Percentagewise, Biden's best result was in Prospect at 78.9% (it was for Clinton as well at 82.1%) while for Trump it was in the 21st ward at 61.8% (in 2016 he won the 21st with 61.5%).  

There were 118 (1,7% of the total) third party and write ins in the city this year while in 2016 there were 281 in the city (4.4% of the total).  In 2016 there were three third party candidates on the ballot (Green, Constitutional, Libertarian).  This year there was one (Libertarian).

Six hundred and four more people voted this year than in 2016.  The margins in the Trump precincts were closer than in Biden's. The large margins in Biden's precincts were large enough to offset those in the more numerous precincts for Trump.  This city is just as divided as the nation.


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