Showing posts with label Utah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah. Show all posts

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Trump's GOP Opposition in Utah Gave Romney Some Backbone

Mitt Romney becoming the first Senator in the President's party to vote to convict on one of the charges in Trump's impeachment trial did raise some eyebrows.  It may not be as surprising given that he and Trump have butted heads.  However other Republicans who have butted heads, with Trump in the past, such as Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz, were fine with giving him a blank check for future abuses of power.  Could there be another explanation for Romney's not towing the line?

Utah has been one of the reddest states in the union for decades having not voted for a Democrat since 1964.  In 2012 Romney received 72% of the vote there over Barack Obama for President.  That was the highest percentage of the vote he received that year. He received 63% of the vote when he ran for the Senate there in 2018.  

The election numbers for the state look different in 2016 for Utah.  Ted Cruz won the GOP caucus there with 69% of the vote.  In the general election, Trump won the state with only 45% of the vote.  Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21% of the vote in the state while Hillary Clinton received 27.8% that year.  

This year, the support for Donald Trump in Utah is at 52% as of December 2019 while his disapproval is at 44%.  This gives him a +8% net approval rating.  At the same time, neighboring Wyoming is the state with the strongest net approval rating with +27% (62% approve and 35% disapprove).  

These numbers were not enough to persuade Utah's other Senator, Mike Lee, to vote to convict, but clearly they did not dissuade Romney from doing so.  It may still be a tall order to get the state to go blue this fall but it clearly has an independent streak with lukewarm support for Trump.  William Weld should spend a lot of time campaigning there.

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Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Global Data Competition Submission

  I have been busy last week working on the analysis of climate data and air quality data for Utah in 2013 for the Global Data Competition.  Above is the document I submitted and my team put together in this graphical display (Thank you Jim, Nikki, Jackson, and Nimesh),  

The first page in the embed seen above give the descriptive statistics for the analysis.  The next one is a mixed model analysis of the merged data set for three air pollutants (Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Sulfur Dioxide) stations and the outcome of departure from normal temperature (DPNT) in tenths of degrees FahrenheitWe found no effect of pollutants but there was an effect of elevation with higher levels elevation in meters and a significant random effect of date.  Date was by month.




The model was rerun with the full data set.  There was a significant 0.0004 degree increase in the departure from normal temps for every 1 meter gain in elevation.  There was a significant random effect of date.
Jnnuary correlation





Because of this result I looked at the correlation with DPNT and elevation for each month in 2013 in Utah.  The correlations are presented in the table at the bottom of this post.  There were significant positive correlations for the winter months of December thru March with DPNT increasing in each of these months with elevation. The scatter plot for January where the relationship was strongest. In the summer months of July thru September, there were significant negative correlations which were weaker in magnitude (distance from zero) than those for January and December.  The scatterplot for July (the strongest negative correlation) is presented below.
July Correlation









The significance of higher temperatures at higher elevations in the winter months means a smaller snow pack in the mountains.  This has implications for the ski industry in Utah as well as the water tables in Utah which depends on the spring snow melt.  This can contribute to drought conditions throughout the west.  The winner of the competition will be announced at the Intermountain Data Conference on November 21.






Month
Correlation
P-value
January
0.4507225
 0.0001
February
0.2918966
 0.0021
March
0.2167232
 0.0236
April
-0.1209575
0.2102
May
-0.1022036
0.2926
June
0.0381272
0.6925
July
-0.3159874
0.0009
August
-0.2779292
0.0031
September
-0.2903617
0.0021
October
-0.1866295
0.0578
November
-0.0167705
0.8652
December
0.4267564
0.0001


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The Impact of the ACA (Obamacare) in Utah and Pennsylvania by Ethnicity and Race

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Utah is an Undetermined Outlier in Distinctive Couses of Death


Looking at Livescience.com yesterday I came across this map of the most distinctive causes of death.  Distinctive means that the mortality rate is the highest above the national rate among 110 causes of death for that state.  A distinctive cause of death can be a rare cause of death.

For Pennsylvania the highest rate was pneumoconioses, a lung disease caused by inhaling toxic dusts such as coal dusts.  The coal mining states of West Virginia and Kentucky shared this distinction. Florida was the only state where HIV was most distinctive.  For Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon, it was deaths due to law enforcement other than capital punishment. For Texas the most distinctive cause of death is not capital punishment but Tuberculosis which can be attributed to having the highest rate of uninsured in the US.

For Utah, as well as DC, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the most distinctive cause was other or unspecified causes of death.  I don't have a good explanation for why this is.  All of these states except DC have life expectancies above the US rate except for DC which is at or near the bottom of health measures.  DC was at the bottom when this graph was created in 2010 while having the largest per capita income. Utah has high life expectancy and low infant mortality rates but low income rates. 
  **Related Posts**

Income and Life Expectancy. What does it Tell Us About US?

 

A Wave of Hate Groups in California? No in Washington, DC

 

How do the States Stack Up on Infant Mortality? (Cross Post with PUSH)


A Statistical Profile of the Uninsured in Washington, DC, New Mexico, and Texas

The Impact of the ACA (Obamacare) in Utah and Pennsylvania by Ethnicity and Race

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

A General Profile on Utah & PA

Having been in Utah for one month, I thought I would give my readers a brief introduction to the state.  I haven't seen the arch above it's in the South of Utah.  I have seen plenty of views like the one on the left from where I work at the VA in Salt Lake City.

Unlike Pennsylvania the population of the state has been growing.  It picked up one seat in the US Congress in the last Census whereas Pennsylvania has been steadily losing seats for decades from a high of 36 in 1920 to 18 today.  Pennsylvania has been evenly divided politically but Utah has been solidly Republican since 1964.  The election map from 2012 shows that Republicans had more than 60% of the vote in all but 4 counties in Utah.  Democrats won 14 out of the 67 counties in PA while carrying the state. 

We all know about the state being founded by Mormons (they call themselves LDS or Latter Day Saints) in the 19th century who were fleeing religious persecution in the east.  Pennsylvania was founded by the Quakers (who call themselves the society of friends) fleeing persecution in England.  Utah has retained it's Mormon majority while PA has become more religiously diverse.  

I did a profile of poverty in Pennsylvania where the Census Bureau  estimated the rate at 13.7% in 2013 while Utah's was significantly lower at 12.6% while the uninsured rate in Utah was higher.  The differences are as glaring as the similarities.

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The Impact of the ACA (Obamacare) in Utah and Pennsylvania by Ethnicity and Race

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Sunday, April 5, 2015

The Impact of the ACA (Obamacare) in Utah and Pennsylvania by Ethnicity and Race


I have just relocated to Salt Lake City, Utah for a job.  I've decided to look at how the state differs from my former state Pennsylvania.  The graph above shows the trends for both states and the US from 2006 to 2014 (the method they used to collect the data changed in 2008 which is why there is a break in the lines from 2007 to 2008).  The rates for Utah are a lot closer to the national rates than are Pennsylvania's

The rates for the US and Utah decreased significantly from 2010 to 2013 with a decrease from 17.7% to 16.8% in the US and with a larger decrease from 16.7% to 15.3% in Utah.  The decrease for Pennsylvania over the same period was smaller from 12.1% in 2010 to 11.6% in 2013.

Looking at the Uninsured rates by race reveals a different picture.  For African Americans, The high year in Utah was 2008 with a rate of 21.5% with a decrease to 18.5% in 2013.  The US rate peaked in 2010 at 19.9% with a decrease to 18.5% in 2013.  The PA rate for African Americans peaked in 2009 at 16.2% with a decrease to 15.4% in 2013.



The rates for Hispanics are significantly higher than Caucasians or African Americans in the US as a whole and for both PA and UT.  Utah's rates are significantly higher than the US rates for all years shown with a peak of 40.1% in 2008 decreasing to 33.8% in 2013.  The US rate for Hispanics peaked at 32.6% in 2009 to 30.0% in 2013.  For PA the rate increased from a low of 21.5% in 2008 to a high of 23.3% in 2011 leveling off to 22.7 in 2013.


The Caucasian uninsured rates for UT and the US corresponded very closely until 2012 and 2013 when the UT rate decreased from a high if 13% in 2010 to 11.7% in 2013.  The US Caucasian rate peaked at 13% in 2010 to 12.3% in 2013.  The PA rate increased from a low of 9.1% in 2008 to a high of 10.4% in both 2010 and 2011 decreasing to 9,8% in 2013.


The changes in the rates for minority groups do not correspond in the same way to the main events of the passage of thee Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 or the Great Recession of 2009.  The ACA was fully implemented in last quarter of 2013.  Medicaid expansion has not yet been implemented in either state but it has been in 23 states with an additional 5 considering their own version of expansion.  The national rate has so far not shown a dramatic drop in the rates.  If one adds Connecticut (one of the first states to expand Medicaid) to the first chart there was a slight decrease in the uninsured rate in 2011 from 10.4% to 10.1% with an increase to 10.9% in 2013.




PA was implementing it's own version of expansion under Gov. Tom Corbett but is now considering a standard expansion.  Utah is debating which way to go with it's expansion.  Next years estimates should provide a clearer picture of the effect of the exchanges and medicaid expansion.


Where the States Stand
Via: The Advisory Board Company

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The Affordable Care Act Having Little Effect on PA's Uninsured in 2013

 

Latino rates in Pennsylvania's Uninsured (Cross Post with PUSH)

 

A Statistical Profile of the Uninsured in Washington, DC, New Mexico, and Texas

 

Racial and Gender Differences in Pennsylvania's Uninsured