Showing posts with label Veterans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Veterans. Show all posts

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Veterans, The Elderly, and Living Wage Cities/Counties

I asked others in the field of demographics on my last post on the percentage of veterans being a negative predictor of the amount of living wage enacted in the 38 cities/counties that have passed living wage ordinances.  One expert in the field suggested one variable that I hadn't considered.  




Chris Briem over at the blog Nullspace suggested I look at age as a possible variable that could mediate this relationship.  He stated that there are higher concentrations of veterans among the elderly.  This makes sense as the draft existed before 1970.  I did obtain the % of the population over the age of 65 for cities in the 2010 census and added it to the model seen below.


Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Intercept
14.70
1.58
9.30
0.00
11.49
17.91
% veteran
-0.60
0.17
-3.61
0.00
-0.94
-0.26
% over 65
0.03
0.13
0.22
0.83
-0.24
0.30

The % of veterans in the city/county still significantly negatively predicted the amount of the living wage passed while the % over the age of 65 did not predict it in either direction.  These cities did have lower percentage of veterans (mean=4.95%) than the US (6.22%).  Likewise these cities did have lower percentages of those over 65 (mean=11.77%) than the US (13.00%).  

I looked at the correlation between the % of veterans and the % over 65.  There was a non-significant positive correlation between the variables as can be seen in the graph below.  Only 8% of the variability in the % over 65 was accounted for by the % veterans for these cities.  There are cities with high elderly populations and low veteran populations such as Palo Alto and El Cerrito, CA



It may be more informative to look at the % of elderly veterans vs. younger veterans as a predictor of the amount of the living wage.  I'm not sure where that data is available but it is a good area of inquiry.

**Related Posts**


What do Living Wage Cities Have in Common?





Veterans, the Living Wage, and the McNamara Fallacy

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Veterans, the Living Wage, and the McNamara Fallacy


In the first post for the eighth year of the blog I was going to reflect on the Ken Burns film about Vietnam.  My first impression was how little things have changed since then with all of the protests.  The second thing that jumped out at me was President Johnson's defense secretary's obsession with collecting data (mostly body counts) to determine who was winning the war.  This is called the McNamara fallacy and is discussed below.



In my blog and my other writings I use statistics to enlighten people and to shed light on various social phenomena.  For example, for the Hill Talk, I looked at various variables which may predict the magnitude of the increase in the living wage for the cities/counties that have passed such ordinances.  

The graph below shows the strongest predictor which is the percentage of veterans in that city/county.  As the percentage of the veteran population increases by one percent, the amount of the living wage decreases by an expected 59 cents.  This relationship accounts for 28% of the variability in the amount of the living wage passed. 


The mean % veterans of the 38 living wage entities is 5% while the US as a whole has 6.2% of its population who are veterans.  Case in point Seattle, WA passed a $15/hour living wage ordinance while nearby Tacoma, WA passed a $12/hr wage.  Tacoma has 9.34% of its population as veterans while Seattle has less than half at 4.54%.  All of the cities that have passed a $15/hour wage or higher have % veterans that are lower than the US as a whole.  Six of the nine cities/counties with wages $15/hr or higher are in California.  

If one spends too much time looking at the leaves and the twigs on a tree, one can miss the surrounding forest.  This is basically what the McNamara fallacy is.  New findings with statistics can reveal important features of the forest as I believe this analysis has with regard to the forest activists must navigate to pass a living wage ordinance.  

The percentage of veterans in a city/county was the most robust variable negatively associated with the amount of the living wage increase after considering the % poverty, the % foreign born, the % change in the population, the % uninsured, the % in poverty, median household income, median housing value, and the % with a high school education or higher.  The full data set used in this analysis can be seen here.  The amounts of the minimum wage increases were found from the National Employment Law Project or NELP.  The demographic information on the cities/counties that have passed these ordinances was found from the Census Bureau at Census.gov.

Unlike McNamara and later Donald Rumsfeld and their ilk, I do not claim to have a full grasp of the whole forest surrounding the Fight for $15.  Further research is needed to fully understand the forest.  An argument could be made that it was the arrogance of men like McNamara and Rumsfeld that created the large population of veterans in the US.  One would think that if anyone could use a raise the veterans could.  A significant portion of the homeless population are veterans.


**Related Posts**


What do Living Wage Cities Have in Common?