Showing posts with label data visualization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label data visualization. Show all posts

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Testing Rates Have Decreased in Cambria County as Cases Keep Rising

One week ago, Cambria County surpassed 400 cases of COVID-19.  This can be seen in the graph above.  Since then the number of new cases has tapered off.


On August 11 the 7 day average for new cases in the county was 11.14 cases per day.  As of today, it is 7.29 cases per day.  The graph above shows that the positive testing rate has increased in the county while it has decreased or remained the same for the US and Pennsylvania.  

The graph above shows the trend in the cumulative cases (red line), the number of tests per day (blue bars), and the 7 day average of tests per day.  The decrease in the testing average occurred after August 5 when the number of cases passed 300 (with a brief spike on August 10).  That day there was an increase of 30 cases.  The increase was primarily at the federal prison in Loretto

I don't have a very good explanation for the decrease in testing after the outbreak at the prison.  Carnegie Mellon's COVID Cast website has indicators to predict future cases such as doctor visits, and survey's of symptoms on Facebook.  The graph at the left shows that the composite of indicators has remained relatively steady.  I hope that the decrease is just an aberration.


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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

A Second Wave of COVID-19 Cases in Cambria and Allegheny Counties?


Cambria County has experienced 22 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 7 days to give a total of 83 cases.  In the previous 37 days, the county had a net increase of 7 cases.  The best fit line is now a fifth order polynomial with an R-square of 99%.  In the graph below, a second order polynomial provided the best fit for the cumulative case curve for the months of March and April with an R-square of 97%.



The map above shows the distribution of the 83 cases in Cambria County by zip code.  The lightest blue zip codes have zero confirmed or probable cases.  The next darker color blue zip codes have between 1 and 4 cases.  The next darker blue colored zip codes have between 5 and 10 cases.  The zip code with the most confirmed cases is 15904 with 7 cases. This zip code covers Richland Township followed by 15931 (Ebensburg) at 6, the Johnstown zip codes of 15905 and 15902 and the Portage zipcode 15946 with 5 each.  The most tested zip code in Johnstown is 15901 with enough tests to cover 12.32% of it's population.  The image below is a screenshot of the distribution of cases on April 26 showing all of the light blue zip codes with the number of cases between 1 and 4.


So far there hasn't been an increase in the number of deaths which tend to follow an increase in cases.  Allegheny County has been showing a similar rise in cases, over 400 in the last five days.  So far they have not had a corresponding increase in deaths.  The bars have been closed down in Allegheny County but not in Cambria County so far.  WEAR A Mask!!!!


**UPDATE**

WTAE in Pittsburgh reports that it is now mandatory to wear masks in publicBelow is a graph showing the trend in testing and cases in the county since March.



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Sunday, May 24, 2020

This week's Coronavirus Observations

Having looked at the trends in testing and cases of Coronavirus for Cambria County, Pennsylvania, and the US for the past few months, I have little new observations to make from last week except for:

  • The number of tests being conducted per day in Cambria County is increasing for the county but the number of new cases per day in the county has leveled off.
  • Although the testing rate has increased, we can see from the graph above that:
    • the county lags behind the city, state, and the U.S. 
    • the city lags behind the state and U.S. (except for zip code 15201)
    • the state lags behind the U.S.
  • This week the state department of health changed how it reports the number of deaths in the state as the number of deaths has surpassed 5,000.  It makes it harder for me to put the numbers together for my Google Sheets but not impossible.  The chart above shows how the case mortality for the state has surged past the U.S. rate.  I don't have information on how the state compares to the other states in the case mortality rate.
  • The state unemplyment rate for April 2020 rose to 15.1% which was up from 5.8% in March and 4.7% in February.  The state rate was higher than the U.S. rate of 14.7%.  
    • The April rates for Cambria County have not been released yet.  For March it was 7.4% up from 5.7% in February.

The county is now in the yellow phase and may return to the green phase after June 2.  COVID Cast from Carnegie Mellon University predicts that the number of new cases will be decreasing for the near future.  It remains to be seen what will happen to the number of cases once restrictions are dropped.



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Sunday, May 17, 2020

A Look at Zip Code COVID-19 Testing Rates In Johnstown, Cambria County, Pennsylvania and the U.S.


Zip Code Map of Greater Johnstown

I have been tracking the number of cases of Coronavirus In Cambria County and in the State of Pennsylvania and the US since the first case was reported on March 22.  For this post I thought I would take a closer look at testing rates in the six zip codes that cover greater Johnstown which are seen in the map above.

The state department of health provides case level data at the zip code level at the map here.  For zip codes with less than five positive cases, the number of these cases is redacted while the number of negative tests (if greater than five) is reported.  This is done to protect the privacy of the individuals with the disease. Each zip code in Johnstown (15901,15902, 15904, 15905, 15906, and 15909) has between one and four cases. To estimate the total number tested, I added two to each of the six zip codes negative cases.  For example, the zip code 15901 has 114 negative cases as of this writing.  Because 15901 has between one and four cases, I conservatively added two to the total to estimate the total tested for a total of 116.
 

The above graph/table has the testing rates for each zip code plus the total for Johnstown, Cambria County, Pennsylvania and the U.S for the last six days.  The rate is computed by dividing the estimated number tested by the population in each zip code (found from zip codes.com).  I realize that  this is a noisy graph.  I added the table beneath it to show which is which.

The two lines that jump out at me the most are the ones for zip code 15901 which is downtown Johnstown (the only zip code completely within city climits) and for the US rate as a whole (the US number tested is taken from Johns-Hopkins COVID-19 map).  This line shows that the testing rate is slightly higher for this zip code (3.43%) than the U.S. (3.36%).  The other five zip codes are below the state rate (solid black line).  Only zip code 15909 (orange line) is below the county rate dotted black line.  

The county rate is below the overall rate for the Johnstown zip codes.  These zip codes have more than half of the county's total population.  This suggests that there is a lack of access to testing in the more rural parts of the county.  The only place to get testing in the county is at Conemaugh hospitals facility on Scalp Avenue in zip code 15904 and can only be done with their doctors order. In the northern parts of the county, they may have to travel to Altoona, Clearfield or Indiana for testing.

The relatively high testing rates for zip code 15901 can be explained by the low population there (3,384) and by the fact there are many senior citizen facilities there such as the Vine St Towers.  Still none of these testing rates are cause for celebration as asymptomatic carriers of the virus are the most dangerous for its spread.


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Saturday, April 25, 2020

Inconsistencies in Reporting COVID-19 in Pennsylvania



This week the PA Health department has changed how it reports the cases and deaths.  Before they reported the cases and deaths.  Later,they reported the number of negative tests in addition to the positive tests.  They then added the demographics of the cases and deaths.  Along the way they created the chart above showing the density of cases in the state (on the right) and a histogram with the number of new cases per day by region in the state (the grey area on the chart shows where there is a lag in reporting).  Later still they added the number of cases and deaths in nursing homes.  Finally they added probable cases and deaths but dropped probable deaths the next day.  These concerns were addressed by PA secretary of health in the video below.

 

Sex

Positive Cases 

Percent of Cases**

Deaths 

Female

21,584

54%

713

Male

17,902

45%

818

Neither

2

0%

0

Not reported

561

1%

6

Race

Positive Cases

Percent of Cases**

Deaths 

African American

3,874

10%

167

Asian 

401

1%

21

White 

7,949

20%

566

Other 

169

0%

3

Not reported*

27,656

69%

780

* 69% of race is not reported. Little data is available on ethnicity.
* 69% of race is not reported. Little data is available on ethnicity. 

** Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding


The demographics of cases and deaths has been reported in the table above.  Most of the cases have been female but most of the deaths have been male.  It has been reported that African Americans are disproportionately affected by the virus but data on race is underreported here in Pennsylvania.  Of the cases where race is reported, one out of three is African American when they are 11% of the state's population.  Also for those whose race is reported, 22% is African American.  This raises questions about what the racial/ethnic background of cases/deaths are for this unreported.

 


For Cambria County, the it is unknown what the demographic breakdown of cases is.  The sole death in the county was a white elderly male.  A map showing the distribution of cases by zip code can be seen here.  The map shows that the cases are evenly distributed across the county. 

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Saturday, March 21, 2020

Corona Numbers from the WHO and JHU

Week 2 of the state of emergency is upon us.  Last week I posted numbers from the World Heath Organization's (WHO) Corona Virus dashboard showing the progression in the number of cases worldwide.  Above is the cumulative frequency graph and overall numbers from their dashboard last week.  

At the left is the WHO's world wide cumulative frequency chart from today.  The number of cases increased by 123,535 or 87%.  The number of deaths increased by 5,793 or 107%.  

The two curves show that after the curve was starting to flatten out (mostly in China), it began to increase exponentially in early March everywhere but China.  The mortality rate for the total number of cases a week ago was 3.8%.  Currently the rate is 4.2% with it being the highest in Italy where it is 8.6%.

Johns-Hopkins University (JHU) also has a dashboard that is frequently cited in the news media.  Their reported numbers are higher than the WHO's. They report 287,238 cases worldwide with 11,942 deaths.  The mortality rate according to their numbers is also 4.2%.  




The JHU dashboard also provides the numbers of people who have recovered from the virus.  According to them, 89,899 have recovered worldwide from the virus or 31% of the total cases. The graph above shows the cumulative number of cases in mainland China (orange line) and the cumulative number of cases everywhere else (yellow line).  We can see that the yellow line is still growing while china's line has flattened.  The number of recovered cases has been growing steadily.


Top 10 Countries with Cases according to WHO and JHU and the differences between numbers
World health Organization
Johns Hopkins University
Difference Between Countries
China 
81416
China
81304
China 
112
Italy 
47021
Italy
47021
Italy 
0
Spain 
19980
Spain
25374
Spain 
-5394
Iran
19644
Germany
21652
Iran
-966
Germany 
18323
Iran
20610
Germany 
-3329
US
15219
US
19931
US
-4712
France 
12475
France
12483
France 
-8
S Korea 
8799
S Korea
8799
S Korea 
0
Switzerland 
4840
Switzerland
6113
Switzerland 
-1273
United Kingdom 
3983
United Kingdom
4014
United Kingdom 
-31

The numbers for each country differ between the two dashboards.  The top 10 countries with cases are presented above with the number of cases reported.  The two dashboards agree on the countries in the top 10.  The order that the countries are ranked agree except for Iran and Germany which are flipped for fourth and fifth.  The two dashboards agree on the number of cases only for Italy and South Korea.  The greatest discrepancies for the two dashboards are for Spain (-5,394), the US (-4,712), and Germany (-3,329) with JHU having more cases.

Certainly there is confusion keeping track of all the cases in a world with more than 7 billion inhabitants.  The countries most affected are some of the richest and most powerful in Asia, Europe, and North America with the exception of Iran.  Until the curve of new cases flattens out the state of emergency is likely to continue.  The video below gives a good summary of how epidemics and pandemics progress.



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