Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Concentration of Hate Groups Predict Hate Crimes (if you consider DC) and Trump Vote (if you don't)





Earlier this year the Southern Poverty Law Center created a map showing the concentration of hate groups in the US.  I adjusted the number of groups in each state by the population in each state  showing a different picture.  Just after the election the FBI issued a new report that hate crimes in the US have increased in 2015.  I thought I would take a look at any possible association between hate crimes, hate groups, and Trump's percentage of the vote.


The graph above shows the linear association between hate groups and hate crimes (both adjusted for population in groups or crimes per million) .  There is a statistically significant relationship with 25.8% of the variability accounted for.  The regression line suggests that for every increase of one hate group per million there is an increase of hate crimes by 2.41 incidents per million.  The District of Columbia has an extremely high rate of both hate groups (26.78 groups/million) and hate crimes (96.69 incidents per million).  Massachusetts has the second highest rate of hate crimes (60.49 incidents/million) but a low rate of hate groups.  

I looked at the relationship first with DC removed (the relationship became negative and non significant) then with DC and MA removed (little changed).  The relationship without these two states is shown below.  




I also looked at the association between hate crimes, hate groups, and Trump’s % of the vote in each state.  The association between hate crimes and Trump’s % of the vote is confounded by DC and MA having high rates of reported hate crimes and low % of the vote for Trump.  Trump had 4% of the vote in DC.  With DC removed there is a positive relationship between hate group concentration and Trump’s % of the vote. There is a negative relationship between the concentration of hate groups and Trump's % of the vote if DC is included as can be seen in the graph below.


If DC is excluded the relationship between hate group concentration and Trump's % of the vote becomes positive with an increase in the concentration of hate groups/million by one leading to a predicted increase of 3.08% in Trump's % of the vote as can be seen in the graph below.  


Clearly DC is a powerful outlier compared to the other 50 states in income, life expectancy, hate groups, and now hate crimes.  Others dismissed DC having a high rate of hate groups by stating that they just had their national headquarters there.  The high rate of reported hate crimes supports that these groups are active in DC with a large minority population suggests that these groups are indeed active there. The alt-right conference below discussed below also supports the activity there.  
 
There are states with high rates of hate groups but low rates of reported hate crimes such as Arkansas and Mississippi (with zero reported hate crimes).  Are the groups more cautious  in these states or are hate crimes less likely to be reported there?  I don't know the answer to these questions but they merit further study.
**Related Posts**

More Hate Groups in States Where Trump and Clinton Win (and in DC Where He Lost)


SPLC Hate Group Update: Washington, DC has an Increase in Activity


 

A Wave of Hate Groups in California? No in Washington, DC

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

A Wave of Hate Groups in California? No in Washington, DC

The Southern Poverty Law Center has issued a report listing the total number of hate groups per state which they track.  The categories followed include, the Ku Klux Klan, Neo Nazi, White Nationalist, Racist Skinhead, Christian Identity, Neo-Confederate, Black Separatist, and General Hate.
California is shown to have the most hate groups followed by Florida and Texas.  All states except Hawaii have at least one.  These are also the first, second, and fourth most populous states in the US.  There is a highly significant correlation between the number of groups and the population in that state (r=0.885, p<.001) as seen in the above graph. 

When the number of hate groups in each state is adjusted for the states' population (by dividing the # of groups by the population and multiplying by one million), a different picture emerges.  The US average is 2.99 groups per million persons.  The rankings for the states plus DC are listed below.  Florida is almost exactly at the national average at 3.00 while Texas and California are below with 2.15 and 2.02 groups per million respectively.  A cubic plot was added to the graph below  and was significantly different from zero (r=.281, p=.045).
The states with the top number of groups per million have one outlier, Washington, DC.  With 15 groups for its 632,323 citizens, there are 23.72 groups per million which is almost three times higher than the next highest state, Arkansas.  It could be argued that the district is not really a State and is more of a city.  By comparison New York City has 22 hate groups for it's 8,336,697 citizens giving it a rate of 2.64.  Nearby Baltimore, MD has 7 groups for it's 621,342 citizens giving it a rate of 11.27.  My hometown, Pittsburgh, PA has 2 groups for it's 306,211 citizens giving it a rate of 6.53.  Of DC's 15 groups, four are Black Separatist (including the Nation of Islam), 3 each of White Nationalist (with names like the Center for Economic Studies), Anti-LGBT, and; General Hate, and one each of Anti Immigrant and Anti-Muslim. 


The extreme value for DC is similar to it's being an outlier for income and life expectancy.  In my most read post, I showed that it has the highest per capita income but the lowest life expectancy (2009 data).  The life expectancy of DC has since improved from 51st to 46th while the income ranking has fallen from 1st to a tie for 4th which would still make it an outlier.  I am not a sociologist so I'm not going to speculate as to the reasons for DC's high rate beyond what the data says.

The states that follow DC can be seen in the table below.  28 states are above the national average.  These are mostly in the south, west and midwest.  Vermont (at 6.39) and New Hampshire (at 5.30) are the only eastern states above the national average. My home state, Pennsylvania is slightly ahead of the national average at 3.21.



Rank
state
pop2012
Hate groups
Groups per million
1
District of Columbia
632323
15
23.72
2
Arkansas
2949131
24
8.14
3
Montana
1005141
8
7.96
4
Mississippi
2984926
22
7.37
5
Vermont
626011
4
6.39
6
Tennessee
6456243
37
5.73
7
Idaho
1595728
9
5.64
8
West Virginia
1855413
10
5.39
9
New Hampshire
1320718
7
5.30
10
Georgia
9919945
50
5.04
11
New Jersey
8864590
44
4.96
12
Nebraska
1855525
9
4.85
13
Alabama
4822023
22
4.56
14
Oklahoma
3814820
17
4.46
15
Delaware
917092
4
4.36
16
Louisiana
4601893
20
4.35
17
South Carolina
4723723
20
4.23
18
Indiana
6537334
26
3.98
19
Missouri
6021988
23
3.82
20
South Dakota
833354
3
3.60
21
Wyoming
576412
2
3.47
22
Kentucky
4380415
15
3.42
23
North Carolina
9752073
33
3.38
24
Colorado
5187582
17
3.28
25
Pennsylvania
12763536
41
3.21
26
Virginia
8185867
26
3.18
27
Arizona
6553255
20
3.05
28
Florida
19317568
58
3.00
29
Nevada
2758931
8
2.90
30
New Mexico
2085538
6
2.88
31
Rhode Island
1050292
3
2.86
32
Ohio
11544225
31
2.69
33
Maryland
5884563
15
2.55
34
Oregon
3899353
9
2.31
35
Texas
26059203
57
2.19
36
New York
19570261
42
2.15
37
Utah
2855287
6
2.10
38
California
38041430
77
2.02
39
Michigan
9883360
18
1.82
40
Massachusetts
6646144
12
1.81
41
Illinois
12875255
23
1.79
42
Wisconsin
5726398
10
1.75
43
Kansas
2885905
5
1.73
44
Iowa
3074186
5
1.63
45
Maine
1329192
2
1.50
46
Minnesota
5379139
8
1.49
47
Washington
6897012
10
1.45
48
North Dakota
699628
1
1.43
49
Connecticut
3590347
5
1.39
50
Alaska
731449
1
1.37
51
Hawaii
1392313
0
.00
Total
N
51
51
50
51
a. Limited to first 100 cases.

**Update** 

It's not just in the US where mapping applications are used to track racial incidents.  It's also done in Japan as seen in the video below.



**Related Posts**

Income and Life Expectancy. What does it Tell Us About US?

 

How do the States Stack Up on Infant Mortality? (Cross Post with PUSH)


A Statistical Profile of the Uninsured in Washington, DC, New Mexico, and Texas

 

A Geographical Represenation of the Mode and Ethnicity