Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label voting. Show all posts

Thursday, February 6, 2020

Iowa: what we know so far


It was scintillating watching C-SPAN's coverage of the Iowa Caucus in West Des Moines on Monday night.  You can see a rebroadcast of it here.  In this one caucus room, Bernie Sanders had the most votes in the second round with 99 followed by Elizabeth Warren with 76, Pete Buttigieg with 73, and Amy Klobuchar with 57.  With these totals Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren were each awarded three delegates to the state convention each (abbreviated in as SDE in the table above) with Klobuchar getting two.  Biden did not have more than 15% of the 333 caucus goers and received no delegates.  The statewide numbers as of this writing are presented above with 96% of the caucus rooms counted.

Like everyone else, I was flabbergasted when the results were not immediately available.  The entrance polls (exit polls are used in the primaries and general elections) showed a close race between Sanders and Buttigieg.  Forty two percent of the caucus goers were male and 58% were female.  Ninety one % were white, 3% were African-American, 4% were Latino, and 2% were other.  Sanders edged Buttigieg among young, male, and nonwhite caucus goers.  Biden did best among caucus goers who said foreign policy mattered most to them (13% of the total).  Sanders won among those who said income inequality was most important (18% of the total).  Among those who said health care was most important (42%) Sanders and Buttigieg were tied.  Likewise they were tied among those who said climate change was most important (21%).

The overall results so far show that Sanders leads among the first and second round caucus goers but Buttigieg leads among state delegates by 3.  In 2016, Bernie lost to Clinton by a razor thin margin in the state delegates and it may happen again this year depending on the last 4% still to be counted. This was the first year they reported who the caucus goers preferred rather than just the delegates.  The result of the delegates could change as the last 4% is counted.



Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez has called for a re-canvassing of the caucus results.  The phone app that they used to send the results but at least they had a paper trail.  These results are similar to those of the electoral college in the 2016 and 2000 elections.  Both systems should be reformed.

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Sunday, December 22, 2019

GOP Congress Enthusiastic About Protecting Trump? Actions Speak Louder Then Words


Much has been said about the Impeachment of Donald Trump.  On Wednesday there was 11 hours of debate.  One GOP Congressman even compared the proceedings in the house to the trial of Jesus before Pontius Pilate.  All GOP Congressmen and did vote against impeachment with three Democrats.  

The graph above shows that the vote on the second article was a five minute vote with 229 voting yes 198 voting no and one Democrat voting present (Tulsi Gabbard).  After the first minute of the vote the percentage of Democrats (blue line) casting their vote was higher than the Republicans (red line) for the five minutes.  The vote was held open for an additional eleven minutes to make sure that as many as possible voted.  Tulsi Gabbard voted present at the 1:18 mark.  You can see the progress of the vote in the clip below.


For comparison the next day the House voted on the State and Local Taxes Act.  It was passed 218-206 on another mostly party line vote.  Like the Article II vote, it was a five minute vote but the percentage of Republicans voting was much closer to the Democrats for the five minutes.  The vote was held open for  only one minute and 22 seconds as you can see in the video below.

The slow response to the impeachment articles also occurred in the vote on the first article (a 15 minute vote).  It was held open for nine minutes and 59 seconds after the 15 minutes had elapsed.  36 GOP members or 18% had not voted at the end of the 15 minutes compared to 13 Democrats or 6%.  The Article II vote was held immediately after the first.

This slow response to the vote suggests a lack of enthusiasm for voting no on the articles of impeachment.  This wasn't evident in the GOP SALT vote in the house the next day.  Actions do speak louder than words.  Former Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) has said that if the impeachment vote were a secret ballot in the Senate, at least 35 of his former GOP colleagues would vote to convict and remove him from office.  The GOP rank and file is another story.


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Saturday, October 20, 2018

Losses in Registered Democrats have Accelerated Since 2016 for Cambria and Somerset Counties (PA)


Cambria County used to be a reliable county for Democrats.  This was especially true for Democratic Presidential candidates from 1960 to 2000.  Pundits were shocked when in 2016 Donald Trump won the county with 66% of the vote.  .  For one year after there were several documentary filmmakers (including Katie Couric for National Geographic and Gary Younge from the Guardian) working on projects in the county trying to figure out why it switched so abruptly to the GOP and what the area needed.  The question remains what has happened there since 2016?  Voter registration numbers can provide clues to the mood of the voters before the votes are counted.

Katie Couric came to Cambria County in 2017 to see what has changed
Cambria County
2014
2016
2018
% Change ’14-‘18
% Change ’14-‘16
% Change ’16-‘18
Democrat
48,417
45,378
41,332
-14.7
-6.4
-8.9
Republican
27,475
32,756
33,261
+21.1
+19.2
+1.5
Other
8,287
8,714
8,580
+3.5
+5.2
-1.5
Population
137,386
134,313
133,054*
-3.2*
-2.2
-1.0*
*2017 estimates


The table above first appeared in the website Darply and has been updated with new information. shows the voter registration data by party for Cambria County for November 2014, 2016, and 2018 with estimated population data for the county from the Census Bureau for comparison.  From 2014 to 2018, there was a 14.7% decrease in registered Democrats, a 21.1% increase in registered Republicans, and a 3.5% increase those registered with other parties or independent.  When we look more closely at the numbers, we see the gains for the Republicans mostly occurred between 2014 and 2016 while losses for the Democrats and those registered as other have increased after 2016.  These losses are larger relative to changes in the county's population.

Somerset County
2014
2016
2018
% Change ’14-‘18
% Change ’14-‘16
% Change ’16-‘18
Democrat
18,746
17,611
15,568
-17.0
-6.1
-11.6
Republican
24,307
27,363
26,879
10.6
12.6
-1.8
Other
4,404
4,719
4,541
3.1
7.2
-3.8
Population
76,292
75,070
74,501*
-2.3*
-1.6
-0.8*
*2017 estimates

For comparison I looked at the registration numbers for Somerset County which is directly to the south of Cambria over the same period in local and Presidential elections.  Since at least 1956 it has been a reliable county for Republicans.  Overall there was a 17% decrease in registered Democrats from 2014-2018 with a 10.6% increase in registered Republicans and a 3.1% increase in other voters.  Before the 2016 election, there was a 12.6% increase in registered Republicans with a 1.8% decrease afterward.  For the Democrats there was a 6.1% decrease from 2014-2016 but an 11.6% decrease from 2016-2018.  For voters registered as outside the two parties there was a 7.2% increase from 2014-2016 with a 3.8% decrease in the next period.  Like Cambria County, these changes have outpaced changes in population numbers.  

The decrease in registered voters for Democrats for both counties could be bad news for Democrats running for office there this year.  Likewise, the decrease in gains for Repubicans since 2016 is not terrible news but may not signify a red wave for them.  However voter registration does not always correspond to they way that people vote.  The Democrats in Cambria County had a registration advantave of roughly 13,000 in 2016 but lost the county by about 23,000 votes to Trump.


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Election Epilogue



Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Hillary Clinton Won Johnstown, PA -- By 83 Votes



ward
Hillary
Trump
Margin

n
%
n
%
n
%
Hillary win
eleventh ward
98
51.9
84
44.4
14
7.5
1
Kernville
152
60.8
91
36.4
61
24.4
1
Prospect
170
82.1
34
16.4
136
65.7
1
7th ward
343
63.4
177
32.7
166
30.7
1
17th ward-1
184
50.7
159
43.8
25
6.9
1
17th ward-2
213
44.5
238
49.7
-25
-5.2
0
17th ward-3
152
43.7
186
53.4
-34
-9.7
0
17th ward-4
100
42.6
123
52.3
-23
-9.7
0
18th ward
129
38.7
186
55.9
-57
-17.2
0
19th ward
182
43.5
221
52.9
-39
-9.4
0
20th ward-1
233
41.9
298
53.6
-65
-11.7
0
20th ward-2
208
51.5
182
45
26
6.5
1
21st ward
97
35.9
166
61.5
-69
-25.6
0
8th ward-1
34
51.5
26
39.4
8
12.1
1
8th ward-2
116
42.5
144
52.7
-28
-10.2
0
8th ward-3
277
37
434
57.9
-157
-20.9
0
Cambria City
85
48.9
74
42.5
11
6.4
1
Johnstown-Center-1
108
59.7
66
36.5
42
23.2
1
Johnstown-Center-2
108
63.9
55
32.5
53
31.4
1
Johnstown-Old Conemaugh
131
56
93
39.7
38
16.3
1
total
3120
48.4
3037
47.1
83
1.3
11

Much has been written about how Donald Trump carried Cambria County with 66.8% of the vote or more than two out of every three who voted.  The BBC, New York Times and other national media outlets have come here to do reports on how a once staunchly democratic county could vote so overwhelmingly for Trump.  However when one looks at the precinct and/or city level a more complex picture emerges.  There are 133 precincts in the county.  This post will look at the 20 precincts in its largest city, Johnstown, PA.  

The table above shows the vote totals for Clinton and Trump.  When their votes are totaled across the 20 precincts, Clinton won by 83 votes or 1.3% of the total cast.  Hillary Clinton won 11 of these precincts (highlighted in blue) and Donald Trump won 9.  The African American precincts of Prospect (82.1%), Johnstown Center-2 (63.9%), Seventh Ward (63.4%), and Kernville (60.8%) were strongest for Clinton while the 21st ward was strongest for Trump (61.5%) followed by the 8th ward precinct 3 (57.9%).

While Clinton won more precincts in Johnstown the precincts where Trump won had a higher average or mean turnout.  The precinct where Trump won had a mean turnout of 406.8 voters while the one where Clinton won had an average turnout of 252.8 voters.  This may be due to either there being more people in these precincts more registered voters or both.  While Clinton was victorious in Johnstown the voting data suggest a high degree of polarization as the video below shows.


ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos

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Cambria State Senate and House Races